粮食生产潜力短期预测的“趋势-波动模型”的验证

应用全国、31个省、6个典型地区和16个典型县的数据对粮食生产潜力短期预测的"趋势-波动模型"进行了系统性的验证和讨论。研究结果表明:(1)预测误差大小反映短期生产潜力的预测精度,预测误差大的主要原因是经济发达地区高产农田被大量占用和(或)蔬菜、水果种植面积大幅度增加而短期内使粮食单产下降;(2)小趋势修正方法是"趋势-波动模型"中不可缺少的一部分,它能将大趋势预测不能包括的短期如气象因素、科技投入、社会因素等影响纳入预测中,提高预测精度;(3)就我国近些年来的实际情况而言,越是经济发达的地区短期生产潜力的波动越大;同样发达地区短期潜力存在增加-下降-回升阶段;(4)就短期生产潜力预测精度而言:国家级大于省级、省级大于地区级、地区级大于县级;不同省、不同地区、不同县之间预测精度差别比较大,这与境内气候的互补性和农田抗御自然灾害的能力有关。     

Projecting future habitat quality of three midwestern reservoir fishes under warming conditions

Rising temperatures caused by climate change are likely to affect cool‐water and warm‐water fishes differently. Yet, forecasts of anticipated temperature effects on fishes of different thermal guilds are lacking, especially in freshwater ecosystems. Towards this end, we used spatially explicit, growth rate potential (GRP) models to project changes in seasonal habitat quality for a warm‐water piscivore (largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides), a cool‐water piscivore (walleye Sander vitreus) and a hybrid piscivore (saugeye S. vitreus × S. canadensis) in two Midwestern reservoirs. We assessed habitat quality for two periods (early and middle 21st century) under two realistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios (a mid‐century emissions peak and a rapid continuous increase in emissions). Largemouth bass were projected to experience enhanced or slightly reduced habitat during all seasons, and throughout the mid‐21st century. By contrast, walleye habitat was projected to decline with anticipated warming, except during the spring in the smaller of our two study reservoirs and during the fall in the larger of our two study reservoirs. Saugeye habitat was projected to either increase modestly or decline slightly during the spring and fall and declines in habitat quality and quantity that were smaller than those for walleye were identified during summer. Collectively, our findings indicate that climate warming will differentially alter habitat suitability for reservoir piscivores, favouring warm‐water species over cool‐water species. We expect these changes in habitat quality to impact the dynamics of reservoir fish populations to varying degrees necessitating the consideration of climate when making future management decisions.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of agricultural land in Great Britain

The aim of this paper is to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of croplands and grasslands in Great Britain under different management practices. We consider the feasible land management options for grass and cropland using county level land‐use data with estimates of per‐area mitigation potential for individual and total GHGs, to identify the land management options with the greatest cost‐effective mitigation potential. We show that for grasslands, uncertainties still remain on the mitigation potential because of their climatic sensitivity and also their less intensive management. For croplands in Great Britain, the technical mean GHG mitigation potentials for all cropland management practices range from 17 Mt CO₂‐eq. per 20 yr to 39 Mt CO₂‐eq. per 20 yr. There are significant regional variation in all cases, with the greatest potentials in England, negligible potential in Wales and intermediate potential in Scotland, with country differences largely driven by the areas of cropland and grassland in each country. Practices such as agronomic improvement and nutrient management are the most promising options because of their impact on N₂O emissions and also their larger potential at low cost. In terms of annual emissions from agriculture, calculated mitigation potentials are small, where the technical mitigation potential of agronomy and nutrient management strategies are ca. 4.5 and 3.8%, respectively (agricultural emissions account for ca. 9% or 47.7 Mt CO₂‐eq., of total Great Britain GHG emissions, Department of Energy and Climate Change, UK). However when compared with the land use, land‐use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) emissions, nutrient management would reduce further emission reductions by approximately half of the 2005 LULUCF sink (i.e. ?1.6 Mt CO₂‐eq. per year).     

解除休眠水曲柳种子的再干燥贮藏

以解除休眠的水曲柳种子为材料,研究种子再干燥脱水贮藏的可行性。结果表明:已解除休眠的种子在室温条件下进行再干燥是可行的,干燥处理后种子的萌发率和平均发芽时间没有明显变化;但在5℃条件下再干燥是不可行的,干燥后种子萌发率、发芽指数显著下降,平均发芽时间明显延长。已解除休眠的种子在室温条件下再干燥处理后贮藏16个月内种子的萌发率没有显著变化,但随着贮藏时间的延长种子发芽指数显著下降,平均发芽时间显著延长。已解除休眠水曲柳种子再干燥贮藏后使用KT、GA3和乙烯利处理对种子的萌发都没有明显的促进作用。     

Changes of Morphological Parameter of Wheat Seed Pretreatment by the Biocontrol Agents Bacillus subtilis QM3 during Germination

Bacillus subtilis QM3, a potential biocontrol agent and useful plant-growth-promoting bacteria (PGRB) from yak dung in China with broad-spectrum and strong antifungal bioactivity, was studied to determine if it either stimulated or inhibited the germination of wheat seeds depending on the amount of bacteria. Germination rate (GR) and length of shoot (LS) increased at 10-fold dilution of QM3 fermentation liquid for 12 h (P < 0.05). Germination potentiality (GP) and root cap ration (RC) decreased at 100-fold dilution of QM3 for 0 h. Length of root (LR) and tips of root (TR) at day 7 remained at control levels at 0-fold dilution of fermentation liquid of QM3 for 24 h. The results obtained suggest that some plant diseases, environmental stresses (such as high salt and heavy metal contents), and difficulties in germination can be controlled or relieved by the use of QM3.     

Caudal epidural co-administration of methadone and morphine in horses: An evaluation of analgesic properties and effects on locomotor function,mentation and physical examination parameters

Caudal epidural analgesia is a well-established therapeutic modality for pain alleviation in horses. Additionally, epidural analgesia could potentially be a complementary diagnostic tool for confirmation of pain-related conditions in horses presenting with nonspecific signs of poor performance or rideability issues. To use the epidural as a diagnostic tool, the administered medications should provide efficient analgesia without accompanying adverse effects. Therefore, the objectives of the current study were to evaluate the analgesic properties and effects on locomotor function, mentation and physical examination parameters of caudal epidural co-administration of methadone and morphine in horses. Five mares received a caudal epidural injection of 0.1 mg/kg bwt methadone and 0.1 mg/kg bwt morphine diluted to a total volume of 4.4 mL/100 kg. Before and several times thereafter, horses were subjected to mechanical nociceptive threshold evaluation, physical examination, assessment of mentation and locomotor function examination. Horses were assigned ataxia scores (0–4) by a group of inexperienced raters (three senior-year veterinary students) and a group of experienced raters (two board-certified internal medicine specialists) that assessed the locomotor examinations either live or video-based. The epidural co-administration of methadone and morphine resulted in clinically relevant and statistically significant increases of horses’ tolerance to mechanical noxious stimuli at the coccygeal, perineal, sacral, lumbar and thoracic regions. Analgesia was evident after 4.4 h and lasted at least 5 h. Regional differences in the onset of analgesia reflected a cranial spread of the analgesic solution. No horses showed signs of gait disturbances; the overall median ataxia score was 0 at all times; and the average difference in scores between two randomly selected raters for a random horse at a random time point was 0.377 indicating high inter-rater agreement. There were no adverse changes of mentation and physical examination parameters. Observed side effects included signs of decreased frequency of defaecation, generalised sweating, and pruritus.     

去除果皮和晒种处理对红豆草种子萌发特性的影响

试验研究了去除果皮和晒种处理对红豆草种子(荚果)萌发特性的影响。结果表明:和对照相比,去除果皮处理显著缩短了红豆草种子的初次发芽时间,且显著提高了发芽率、发芽指数、活力指数和根、芽生长,显著降低了发霉率;晒种处理能显著促进未去掉果皮红豆草种子(荚果)的萌发。晒种1~3d对去掉果皮的红豆草种子的发芽率和发霉率无显著影响(P0.05)。去掉果皮晒种2、3d处理红豆草种子的发芽率显著高于未去皮晒种0d(对照),发霉率显著低于对照(P0.05),发芽指数和活力指数显著高于去掉果皮晒种0d和1d,初次发芽时间比对照提前2d,其根长和芽长显著高于对照(P0.05);经过去掉果皮和晒种的红豆草种子在室内贮存75d后其发芽指数、根长、芽长均有所降低,而发芽率却有所增加。试验得出,去除红豆草种子(荚果)果皮并晒种2~3d能显著促进其萌发、降低发霉率,而且短期(75d)贮藏后其发芽率未降低。     

基于MaxEnt模型预测梨火疫病菌的潜在地理分布

为探究梨火疫病菌解淀粉欧文氏菌Erwinia amylovora在全球的潜在地理分布,基于其全球分布数据和筛选得到的环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型对其在当前气候和未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布进行预测,并利用刀切法和皮尔逊相关性分析法筛选对梨火疫病菌分布有重要影响的环境变量。结果显示,对梨火疫病菌分布有重要影响的环境变量包括2月平均最高温度、1月平均降水量、7月平均最低温度、温度变化方差、昼夜温差月均值和7月平均降水量,表明春季和夏季的温度和降水对梨火疫病菌的分布有较大影响。在当前气候条件下,梨火疫病菌在全球的适生区分布较广,适生区总面积达到5.58×10⁷ km²,且高适生区主要分布在北美洲沿海地区、地中海沿岸和亚洲中部及东部的部分地区;梨火疫病菌在我国的适生区总面积为7.36×10⁶ km²,占全国陆地总面积的76.70%;在未来气候SSP126和SSP585情景下,梨火疫病菌在全球的适生区总面积分别为5.52×10⁷ km²和5.24×10⁷ km²。表明梨火疫病菌对我国大部分地区有潜在威胁,应加强监测与防控。     

沙引发对紫花苜蓿种子盐逆境下发芽及幼苗生理生化变化的影响

试验以紫花苜蓿品种维多利亚和金皇后种子为材料，研究了沙引发处理对高盐(0．8％NaCl)逆境下种子发芽及幼苗生理生化变化的影响。结果表明，沙引发处理能显著提高紫花苜蓿两个品种种子的发芽率、发芽势、发芽指数和活力指数，缩短平均发芽时间，显著增加幼苗干重，同时提高了过氧化氢酶(CAT)、超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)和过氧化物酶(POD)活性，减少丙二醛(MDA)的积累。说明沙引发提高了紫花苜蓿种子的活力和抗盐胁迫能力，促进了盐逆境下种子的萌发和幼苗生长。     

盐胁迫下5-磺基水杨酸、水杨酸对小黑麦种子生理特性的影响

采用种子萌发试验,研究了5-磺基水杨酸、水杨酸对盐胁迫下小黑麦种子萌发及幼苗生长情况的影响.结果表明:在盐胁迫下,适当浓度的两种酚酸均能提高小黑麦种子萌发的发芽率、发芽指数、活力指数,浓度增高则抑制种子萌发.适当浓度的两种酚酸还能降低幼苗叶片电导率和丙二醛(MDA)含量、提高叶绿素含量.总的看来,5-磺基水杨酸的效果比水杨酸好,且低浓度的效果比高浓度的好.