试论组合预测的精度估计分析

在分析比较组合预测与单个预测的精度(误差)大小基础上,给出了组合预测精度高于单个预测精度的条件,并给出了组合预测的精度估计公式。     

高山草地的光谱反射特征及其估产模型

对祁连山东段高山草地中５种植物群落的光谱反射特征进行了测试研究。结果表明：１）草本植物和灌木种群的光谱反射率在可见光波段上无显著差异，但在近红外波段存在显著差异；２）土壤背景和测试仪器高度对群落的光谱反射产生显著影响；３）植物生长盛期，可用近红外波段的反射差异来区分草地植物群落的空间分布：４）草地植物群落的地上植物量与几种变换的植被指数呈显著或极显著的非线性相关。     

MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING OF THE CANINE ABDOMEN: EFFECT OF PULSE SEQUENCE ON DIAGNOSTIC QUALITY

Motion artifact is an important limiting factor for abdominal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in veterinary patients. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of pulse sequence on abdominal MRI diagnostic quality in dogs. Ten normal dogs were each scanned using 16 MRI pulse sequences. Sequences included breath‐holding sequences, respiratory navigation sequences, and traditional spin‐echo sequences. Four observers independently scored diagnostic quality for each sequence based on the appearance of specific organs, overall diagnostic quality, and degree of artifactual interference. Signal‐to‐noise ratio and contrast‐to‐noise ratio were also calculated for each sequence. The sequence with the highest overall mean diagnostic quality score was the dorsal T2 turbo spin echo (TSE) with fat saturation and breath‐holding. The sequence with the lowest mean diagnostic quality score was the dorsal T2 fast spin echo. The sequence with the highest signal‐to‐noise ratio for all evaluated organs was the sagittal T1 spin echo. Signal‐to‐noise and contrast‐to‐noise ratios did not correlate with subjective assessment of overall diagnostic quality for the majority of the sequences evaluated (P < 0.05). The three sequences considered to have the highest diagnostic quality for the cranial abdomen were the dorsal T2 TSE with fat saturation and breath‐hold, transverse T1 turbo fast low‐angle shot gradient echo with breath‐hold, and dorsal T2 half‐Fourier acquisition single shot TSE with respiratory navigation. These sequences had short acquisition times, yielded studies of similar diagnostic quality, provided complementary information, and are therefore recommended for routine canine abdominal MRI protocols.     

黄河首曲—玛曲高寒湿地生态系统服务功能价值估算

结合试验和调查,综合运用市场价值法、替代费用法和影子工程法,从11类服务功能方面对黄河首曲—玛曲高寒湿地生态系统服务功能进行了定量估算,旨在为该地区经济发展及科学合理地保护和利用湿地资源提供依据。结果表明:玛曲高寒湿地生态服务功能总价值达159.42亿元/a,是该地区国民生产总值的36.65倍。其中以水文调节功能最大,为57.72亿元/a。其次为水源补给、文化科研、营养循环与储存和气候调节功能,分别为32.43亿、12.50亿、12.38亿和11.37亿元/a,环境净化、物质生产、生物多样性保护、土壤形成与保护和大气组分调节功能,分别为9.24亿、8.48亿、8.31亿、5.67亿和1.09亿元/a,休闲娱乐功能最低(0.23亿元/a)。充分说明,玛曲高寒湿地是"中国西部高原之肾",是黄河上游重要水源补给区和蓄洪区,是黄河上游生态系统的绿色生态屏障,对保证中下游地区生态安全具有重要的战略地位。     

计算机视觉技术在智能养猪中的研究进展

计算机视觉是人工智能的重要发展方向,可以显著改善人与世界的交互方式,加强计算机视觉技术在智能养猪中的研究和应用必将为养猪业带来一场变革。本文综述了计算机视觉技术在猪只识别、行为监测、体尺测量、体重估测、肉品质评定、疾病监测等方面的研究进展,以期促进我国养猪业的智能化发展。     

Kinematics of whip spider pedipalps: a 3D comparative morpho-functional approach

Amblypygi are tropical and subtropical ambush predators that use elongated, raptorial pedipalps for different activities. Although pedipalp use in predation and courtship has been explored in videography in vivo analyses, kinematic ex vivo examination of these appendages has not been conducted. Here, we rectify this lack of data by using micro-CT scans to 3D-kinematically model the appendage morphology and the range of motion (ROM) of the joints for Damon medius and Heterophrynus elaphus. We illustrate the successful application of this technique to terrestrial euarthropods in determining the maximum ROM values for each pedipalp joint. We also note that, in life, these values would be lower due to motion restricting structures like tendons, arthrodial membranes, and muscles. We further compare our maximum values obtained here with data from video-based motion analyses. The ROM of each joint shows the greatest flexibility in the femur-tibia joint (140–150°), the lowest in the basitarsus-claw joint (35–40°). ROM in the tibia-basitarsus joint is markedly distinct (D. medius: 44°; H. elaphus: 105°). This disparity reflects how H. elaphus uses the joint in the capture basket, while D. medius uses the femur-tibia joint to form the capture basket. We further illustrate notable vertical motion of the H. elaphus pedipalp compared to D. medius. This difference reflects the retro-ventral trochanter apophysis of H. elaphus. Our study opens the possibility to further whip spider kinematic understanding. Examination of other taxa using this approach will result in a more comprehensive understanding of the ecological significance and ethological implications of this unique arachnid group.     

舍饲1～7日龄公骡驹行为的观察

对舍饲1～7日龄公骡驹的吸乳、偷乳、站立、运动、睡眠、采食、吃粪、踢、恋群、嬉耍、鸣叫、嗅舐等行为进行了观察,初步探讨了这些行为的产生原因和如何利用这些行为制定科学的骡驹培育措施。     

Bayesian estimation of variance partition coefficients adjusted for imperfect test sensitivity and specificity

The variance partition coefficient (VPC) measures the clustering of infection/disease among individuals with a specific covariate pattern. Covariate-pattern-specific VPCs provide insight to the groups of individuals that exhibit great heterogeneity and should be targeted for intervention. VPCs should be taken into consideration when planning study designs, modeling data and estimating sample sizes. We present a Bayesian discrete mixed model for the estimation of covariate-pattern-specific VPCs when measurement of the infection/disease is based on an imperfect test. The utility of the presented model is demonstrated with three applications. In all cases, imperfect tests biased VPC estimates towards the null but corrected estimates could be obtained by modeling the sensitivity and specificity of the test procedure with beta distributions. The comparison of adjusted VPCs between the intercept only and the fitted models with higher level covariates explained the portion of heterogeneity in the data that was accounted for by the covariates.     

西北旱区喷灌条件下紫花苜蓿生长特征与品质指标的关系

西北旱区由于独特的气候条件,生产的苜蓿干草品质好,产量高。如何根据苜蓿的田间指标估测干草品质参数,对于苜蓿草产品生产销售具有重要意义。研究在喷灌条件下不同灌溉量对紫花苜蓿的生长品质的影响,并利用生长指标对紫花苜蓿的品质进行预测。试验于2014至2015年于中国农业大学石羊河流域生态节水试验站进行为期2年的田间试验。试验共设3个灌溉处理:A₁灌溉量为100%紫花苜蓿蒸腾蒸散量(ETc),A₂,A₃的灌溉量分别为A₁处理的66%,33%,以及一个不灌溉处理A₄。结果表明,苜蓿生长指标如株高(H)和茎叶比(SLR)随生育期的推进呈上升趋势,而鲜干比(FDR)呈下降趋势;所有生长指标随着灌溉量的减少均呈下降趋势。在品质方面,随着生育期的推进,所有处理的粗蛋白(CP)呈下降趋势,而中性洗涤纤维(NDF)和酸性洗涤纤维(ADF)则呈现上升趋势;随着灌溉量的降低,NDF与ADF呈下降趋势,而CP则呈上升趋势。各生长指标与品质指标的拟合结果表明,H和SLR均与各品质指标显著线性相关(P<0.001),且H与品质拟合结果相关系数最高(R²>0.900),而FDR则与各品质指标不显著。这些结果表明,在田间管理较好,长势良好,杂草与病虫害发生较少的情况下,可以用株高对苜蓿干草品质做出预测。