Application of Multivariate Statistics in Early-warning of Corporation Financial Crisis

This paper is focused on early warning of corporation financial crisis for the China's household electric appliance manufacturers in stock market. Firstly, using company's open-disclosed annual statements as data resource, the financial indexes system is constructed. Secondary, adopting the multivariable statistical analysis method, such as cluster, discriminate and principle component analysis, the multivariate models for the empirical study on early warning of financial crisis by making use of SPSS statistical software are set up. The corporation might discover the financial affairs crisis that shall probably arise beforehand by using the financial affairs crisis early warning system. This study and analysis may serve as reference for domestic industries and enterprises.     

Analysis of Causes and Impacts of Soft Budget Constraints of Enterprises Based on Dynamic Game for Three Players

This paper researches the behavior difference among government,banks and enterprises and how it affects soft budget constraints of enterprises and non-performing loans of banks based with dynamic game.The game model suggests that government will give banks some assistance and let them refinance enterprises,especially government has strong(incentive) to sustain SOEs in China's transitional economy.Banks will do it if the assistance from government is more than the loss from refinance enterprises.In addition the value of liquidation of enterprises and the new loans affect banks' refinancing old enterprises.     

河道堤防设计高程的概率设计和风

介绍河道堤防设计高程的概率和风险校核方法。该方法综合考虑多种不确定性因素的影响，利用随机微分方程推求河道水位的概率分布，并对风浪的随机影响进行分析，按照随机可靠性理论，对常规采用确定性方法确定的河道堤防高程进行漫顶风险校核和可靠性设计。     

基于模糊层次分析法的农产品加工企业风险评价研究

风险评价是风险管理的重要阶段,针对农产品加工企业特点,提出了一种基于模糊层次分析法的农产品加工企业风险评价方法。该方法初步解决了农产品加工企业风险管理中的关键问题——风险因素的识别。以某农产品加工公司为例,介绍了该方法的应用过程。     

农村污染缓流水体的修复研究

农村缓流水体是维系乡村生态平衡的重要组成部分, 水质污染已成为国内乡村缓流水体普遍现状。讨论了农村缓流水体的污染成因，并以水生植物大漂为水体修复主体，进行了大漂的水体修复特性的试验，讨论了在可控条件下用大漂对缓流污染水体进行修复治理的植物修复技术及大漂在水体修复中可能带来的生态风险及其防范。     

国内外鱼类入侵的历史及途径

近年来,由于鱼类入侵,对生态环境造成了严重破坏,经济也遭受巨大损失,现已引起国内外学者的广泛关注。鱼类入侵的前提是人类对其有意无意的相互引进。作者综合国内外大量资料,论述了国际范围内鱼类引种、入侵的历史,概括了国内外鱼类生物入侵的途径,旨在为进一步研究鱼类入侵的机制和防范控制措施提供依据。