林业应用系统本体知识模型的构建方法研究

总结了林业应用系统本体构建的基本方法,介绍了本体知识模型的构建思路,以期为本体技术的推广应用提供参考。     

含MCVaR的投资组合优化统一模型

研究了Duarte提出的投资组合优化统一模型及条件风险价值（CVaR），分析了以CVaR为风险度量的投资组合优化模型的具体形式，建立了统一七种模型的投资组合优化统一模型，并发现统一模型是一个凸二次规划问题.     

粮食生产潜力短期预测的“趋势-波动模型”的验证

应用全国、31个省、6个典型地区和16个典型县的数据对粮食生产潜力短期预测的"趋势-波动模型"进行了系统性的验证和讨论。研究结果表明:(1)预测误差大小反映短期生产潜力的预测精度,预测误差大的主要原因是经济发达地区高产农田被大量占用和(或)蔬菜、水果种植面积大幅度增加而短期内使粮食单产下降;(2)小趋势修正方法是"趋势-波动模型"中不可缺少的一部分,它能将大趋势预测不能包括的短期如气象因素、科技投入、社会因素等影响纳入预测中,提高预测精度;(3)就我国近些年来的实际情况而言,越是经济发达的地区短期生产潜力的波动越大;同样发达地区短期潜力存在增加-下降-回升阶段;(4)就短期生产潜力预测精度而言:国家级大于省级、省级大于地区级、地区级大于县级;不同省、不同地区、不同县之间预测精度差别比较大,这与境内气候的互补性和农田抗御自然灾害的能力有关。     

带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.     

Characterization of Leptospira infection in suckling and weaning rat pups

Rats are known to be the most important reservoirs of Leptospira spp. However, the leptospiral dose and age at which rats become resistant to Leptospira infection are not yet well elucidated. Aimed to characterize leptospirosis in rat pups, we found that suckling pups (4-, 7-, and 14-day old) are susceptible to leptospires and resistance starts from the weaning age (23-day old). Susceptibility of rat pups was also affected by the infecting dose of the organisms. Jaundice, decrease in body weight, and neurological symptoms prior to moribundity was evident in infected suckling pups. However, 23-day-old infected pups did not manifest any pathological changes and were able to survive the infection similar to adult rats. Based on these results, we propose the suckling rat pup as a novel animal model of human leptospirosis to investigate pathogenesis, development of host resistance, and the mechanisms involved in rats becoming maintenance hosts for leptospires.     

互联网专车服务对出租车行业垄断的影响

通过数学建模方法可知，由于出租车公司和政府部门追求垄断利润，出租车司机和消费者的福利减少，因此，对消费者和司机来说，出租车行业垄断确实是一种伤害.互联网专车服务以低廉的价格和优质的服务，是打破出租车行业垄断的有力工具.从模型分析揭示的结果可知：传统的出租车行业必须对司机、消费者、公司和政府间的利润分配制度进行深层次的改革.只有这样，才能建立一个和谐的出租车服务体系.     

Estimation of Crown Temperature of Winter Wheat and the Effect on Simulation of Frost Tolerance

Accurate estimation of winter wheat frost kill in cold‐temperate agricultural regions is limited by lack of data on soil temperature at wheat crown depth, which determines winter survival. We compared the ability of four models of differing complexity to predict observed soil temperature at 2 cm depth during two winter seasons (2013‐14 and 2014‐15) at Ultuna, Sweden, and at 1 cm depth at Ilseng and Ås, Norway. Predicted and observed soil temperature at 2 cm depth was then used in FROSTOL model simulations of the frost tolerance of winter wheat at Ultuna. Compared with the observed soil temperature at 2 cm depth, soil temperature was better predicted by detailed models than simpler models for both seasons at Ultuna. The LT50 (temperature at which 50 % of plants die) predictions from FROSTOL model simulations using input from the most detailed soil temperature model agreed better with LT50 FROSTOL outputs from observed soil temperature than what LT50 FROSTOL predictions using temperature from simpler models did. These results highlight the need for simpler temperature prediction tools to be further improved when used to evaluate winter wheat frost kill.     

大兴安岭生态功能区建设的区划分析及“G＋X”管理模式构建

依据价值分析理念,对大兴安岭生态功能区进行了区划分析,并构建了大兴安岭生态功能区建设的＂G＋X＂管理模式。     

城区道路景观共生模式研究——以金寨县将军大道为例

对小城镇沿河主干道的道路周边用地和道路中央分隔带进行景观设计和植物配置,将生态学中的共生机制原理运用到景观规划中,将地形、地貌、地物的自然景观,满足人类精神需要的人文景观,道路行车安全的功能景观和谐优化,初步探讨出一种共生机制下的小城镇道路景观共生模式。     

关于林业数学模型中参数的取值问题

针对国内林业期刊文献中普遍存在的数学模型参数取值不规范的问题，提出林业数学模型的参数取值，应遵循小数位统一和有效数统一的原则，而且有效数统一原则应该成为最高准则；同时还对与这两项原则有关的某些特定林业数表模型中参数的取值和估计问题进行讨论。