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11.
大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)是最具经济价值的热带金枪鱼类,其资源状况一直是区域性金枪鱼渔业管理组织关注的重点。由于多种渔业作业、捕捞船队构成复杂,印度洋大眼金枪鱼的历史渔获量统计存在一定的偏差(Bias),但国际上近些年开展资源评估时都忽略了这一偏差。本研究根据1979~2015年的年渔获量、年龄结构渔获量及相对丰度指数数据,运用年龄结构资源评估模型(ASAP)对印度洋大眼金枪鱼资源进行评估,重点考查渔获量的不确定性(观测误差和统计偏差)对资源评估结果的影响。结果显示,印度洋大眼金枪鱼当前资源总体没有过度捕捞,但2015年初显示轻微的过度捕捞,通过对比基础模型与8个灵敏度分析模型的评估结果发现,渔获量观测误差(CV)的预设对资源开发状态的判断有一定的影响。当渔获量统计偏差调整量为15%时(即历史渔获量被低估了),评估结果与基础模型基本一致;统计偏差调整量为20%时,评估结果有过度捕捞的趋势。本研究结果表明,资源评估模型中渔获量观测误差的设定和历史渔获量统计偏差均会对评估结果产生影响,后者更为明显,因此,二者均不能忽略。 相似文献
12.
Accounting for uncertainty in pedotransfer functions in vulnerability assessments of pesticide leaching to groundwater 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A simulation tool for site-specific vulnerability assessments of pesticide leaching to groundwater was developed, based on the pesticide fate and transport model MACRO, parameterized using pedotransfer functions and reasonable worst-case parameter values. The effects of uncertainty in the pedotransfer functions on simulation results were examined for 48 combinations of soils, pesticides and application timings, by sampling pedotransfer function regression errors and propagating them through the simulation model in a Monte Carlo analysis. An uncertainty factor, f(u), was derived, defined as the ratio between the concentration simulated with no errors, c(sim), and the 80th percentile concentration for the scenario. The pedotransfer function errors caused a large variation in simulation results, with f(u) ranging from 1.14 to 1440, with a median of 2.8. A non-linear relationship was found between f(u) and c(sim), which can be used to account for parameter uncertainty by correcting the simulated concentration, c(sim), to an estimated 80th percentile value. For fine-textured soils, the predictions were most sensitive to errors in the pedotransfer functions for two parameters regulating macropore flow (the saturated matrix hydraulic conductivity, K(b), and the effective diffusion pathlength, d) and two water retention function parameters (van Genuchten's N and alpha parameters). For coarse-textured soils, the model was also sensitive to errors in the exponent in the degradation water response function and the dispersivity, in addition to K(b), but showed little sensitivity to d. To reduce uncertainty in model predictions, improved pedotransfer functions for K(b), d, N and alpha would therefore be most useful. 相似文献
13.
Abstract – In natural systems, prey frequently interact with multiple predators and the outcome often cannot be predicted by summing the effects of individual predator species. Multiple predator interactions can create emergent effects for prey, but how those change across environmental gradients is poorly understood. Turbidity is an environmental factor in aquatic systems that may influence multiple predator effects on prey. Interactions between a cruising predator (largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides) and an ambush predator (muskellunge Esox masquinongy) and their combination foraging on a shared prey (bluegill Lepomis macrochirus) were examined across a turbidity gradient. Turbidity modified multiple predator effects on prey. In clear water, combined predators consumed in total more prey than expected from individual predator treatments, suggesting risk enhancement for prey. In moderately turbid water, the predators consumed fewer prey together than expected, suggesting a risk reduction for prey. At high turbidity, there were no apparent emergent effects; however, the cruising predator consumed more prey than the ambush predator, suggesting an advantage for this predator. Understanding multiple predator traits across a gradient of turbidity increases our understanding of how complex natural systems function. 相似文献
14.
本文介绍了欧盟、美国和日本评估加工农产品中农药残留的数据要求和试验准则,以及开展膳食摄入风险评估和推荐农药最大残留限量(MRL)的方法,汇总了用于农药残留评估的加工农产品及其分类,分析了加工农产品中农药MRL制定现状,为进一步提高我国相关领域技术提供借鉴。比较分析结果表明,欧盟和美国在农药登记资料要求中明确提出了加工试验数据要求并且制定了相应的试验准则,美国在试验准则中描述了加工农产品中农药MRL的推荐原则;美国和日本制定了一定数量的加工农产品中农药MRL,欧盟建立了适用于监管农药MRL的加工因子数据库;欧盟、美国和日本均在相关法规中规定了加工农产品中农药残留的合规性判定。 相似文献
15.
Recreational sea fishing in Europe in a global context—Participation rates,fishing effort,expenditure, and implications for monitoring and assessment 下载免费PDF全文
《Fish and Fisheries》2018,19(2):225-243
Marine recreational fishing (MRF) is a high‐participation activity with large economic value and social benefits globally, and it impacts on some fish stocks. Although reporting MRF catches is a European Union legislative requirement, estimates are only available for some countries. Here, data on numbers of fishers, participation rates, days fished, expenditures, and catches of two widely targeted species were synthesized to provide European estimates of MRF and placed in the global context. Uncertainty assessment was not possible due to incomplete knowledge of error distributions; instead, a semi‐quantitative bias assessment was made. There were an estimated 8.7 million European recreational sea fishers corresponding to a participation rate of 1.6%. An estimated 77.6 million days were fished, and expenditure was €5.9 billion annually. There were higher participation, numbers of fishers, days fished and expenditure in the Atlantic than the Mediterranean, but the Mediterranean estimates were generally less robust. Comparisons with other regions showed that European MRF participation rates and expenditure were in the mid‐range, with higher participation in Oceania and the United States, higher expenditure in the United States, and lower participation and expenditure in South America and Africa. For both northern European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Moronidae) and western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae) stocks, MRF represented 27% of the total removals. This study highlights the importance of MRF and the need for bespoke, regular and statistically sound data collection to underpin European fisheries management. Solutions are proposed for future MRF data collection in Europe and other regions to support sustainable fisheries management. 相似文献
16.
建设项目环境影响评价主要指项目实施后可能带来的负面环境影响预测、分析与评估,进而提出预防不良环境影响的有效措施,实现跟踪监测。但是目前我国建设项目环境影响仍具有一定局限性,只有充分认识到存在的问题,积极改进,才能发挥评价的真正作用。 相似文献
17.
Functional imaging using positron emission tomography (PET) plays an important role in the diagnosis, staging, image‐guided treatment planning and monitoring of malignant diseases. PET imaging complements conventional anatomical imaging such as computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The strength of CT scanning lies in its high spatial resolution, allowing for anatomical characterization of disease. PET imaging, however, moves beyond anatomy and characterizes tissue based on functions such as metabolic rate. Combined PET/CT scanners were introduced commercially in 2001 and a number of technological advancements have since occurred. Radiolabelled tracers such as 18F‐fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) and 18F‐fluorothymidine (FLT) allow visualization of various metabolic processes within cancer cells. Many studies in human oncology evaluating the utility of PET/CT have demonstrated clinical benefits. Few veterinary studies have been performed, but initial studies show promise for improved detection of malignancy, more thorough staging of canine cancer and determination of early response and disease recrudescence. 相似文献
18.
T. D. Procter D. L. Pearl R. L. Finley E. K. Leonard N. Janecko R. J. Reid‐Smith J. S. Weese A. S. Peregrine J. M. Sargeant 《Zoonoses and public health》2014,61(3):208-218
An estimated 6 million pet dogs live in Canadian households with the potential to transmit zoonotic pathogens to humans. Dogs have been identified as carriers of Salmonella, Giardia and Campylobacter spp., particularly Campylobacter upsaliensis, but little is known about the prevalence and risk factors for these pathogens in pet dogs that visit dog parks. This study examined the prevalence of these organisms in the faeces of dogs visiting dog parks in three cities in south‐western Ontario, as well as risk factors for shedding Campylobacter spp. and C. upsaliensis. From May to August 2009, canine faecal samples were collected at ten dog parks in the cities of Guelph and Kitchener‐Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Owners were asked to complete a questionnaire related to pet characteristics and management factors including age, diet and activities in which the dog participates. Faecal samples were collected from 251 dogs, and 189 questionnaires were completed. Salmonella, Giardia and Campylobacter spp. were present in 1.2%, 6.4% and 43.0% of faecal samples, respectively. Of the Campylobacter spp. detected, 86.1% were C. upsaliensis, 13% were C. jejuni and 0.9% were C. coli. Statistically significant sparing factors associated with the shedding of Campylobacter spp. included the feeding of a commercial dry diet and the dog's exposure to compost. Age of dog had a quadratic effect, with young dogs and senior dogs having an increased probability of shedding Campylobacter spp. compared with adult dogs. The only statistically significant risk factor for shedding C. upsaliensis was outdoor water access including lakes and ditches, while dogs >1 year old were at a lower risk than young dogs. Understanding the pet‐related risk factors for Campylobacter spp. and C. upsaliensis shedding in dogs may help in the development of awareness and management strategies to potentially reduce the risk of transmitting this pathogen from dogs to humans. 相似文献
19.
Iñigo Loureiro María Concepción Escorial María Cristina Chueca 《Pest management science》2023,79(6):2247-2254
BACKGROUND
Cultivated bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) spontaneously hybridizes with wild/weedy related Aegilops populations, but little is known about the actual rates at which this hybridization occurs under field conditions. It is very important to provide reliable empirical data on this phenomenon in order to assess the potential crop–wild introgression, especially in the context of conducting risk assessments for the commercialization of genetically modified (GM) wheat, as gene flow from wheat to Aegilops species could transfer into the wild species genes coding for traits such as resistance to herbicides, insects, diseases or environmental stresses.RESULTS
The spontaneous hybridization rates between wheat and A. geniculata and A. triuncialis, which are very abundant in the Mediterranean area, have been estimated for the first time in the northern part of the Meseta Central, the great central plateau which includes the largest area of wheat cultivation in Spain. Hybridization rates averaged 0.12% and 0.008% for A. geniculata and A. triuncialis, respectively. Hybrids were found in 26% of A. geniculata and 5% of A. triuncialis populations, at rates that can be ≤3.6% for A. geniculata and 0.24% for A. triuncialis.CONCLUSION
The detection of Aegilops spp.–wheat hybrids in Aegilops populations indicates that gene flow can occur, although wheat is considered a crop with a low-to-medium risk for transgene escape. These data on field hybridization rates are essential for GM wheat risk assessment purposes. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry. 相似文献20.
M. D. Pintore L. Ceballos B. Iulini L. Tomassone A. Pautasso D. Corbellini F. Rizzo M. L. Mandola M. Bardelli S. Peletto P. L. Acutis A. Mannelli C. Casalone 《Zoonoses and public health》2015,62(5):365-374
Following reports of human cases of Lyme borreliosis from the Ossola Valley, a mountainous area of Piemonte, north‐western Italy, the abundance and altitudinal distribution of ticks, and infection of these vectors with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato were evaluated. A total of 1662 host‐seeking Ixodes ricinus were collected by dragging from April to September 2011 at locations between 400 and 1450 m above sea level. Additional 104 I. ricinus were collected from 35 hunted wild animals (4 chamois, 8 roe deer, 23 red deer). Tick density, expressed as the number of ticks per 100 m2, resulted highly variable among different areas, ranging from 0 to 105 larvae and from 0 to 22 nymphs. A sample of 352 ticks (327 from dragging and 25 from wild animals) was screened by a PCR assay targeting a fragment of the 16S rRNA gene of B. burgdorferi s.l. Positive samples were confirmed with a PCR assay specific for the 5S‐23S rRNA intergenic spacer region and sequenced. Four genospecies were found: B. afzelii (prevalence 4.0%), B. lusitaniae (4.0%), B. garinii (1.5%) and B. valaisiana (0.3%). Phylogenetic analysis based on the ospC gene showed that most of the Borrelia strains from pathogenic genospecies had the potential for human infection and for invasion of secondary body sites. 相似文献