浅谈耕地休耕模式及实现路径

休耕制度是保障藏粮于地、藏粮于技战略具体实现的有效途径,对保障国家粮食安全具有重要战略意义。笔者详细归纳了美国、欧洲和日本休耕制度的提出背景以及休耕制度实施的具体方式和休耕补偿办法,并且分析了中国在资源匮乏地区、耕地破坏地区、生态薄弱区等区域耕地存在的独特性问题,以及相对应的科学改良措施和当前施行的休耕补贴政策。通过对比国外模式和分析国内现行休耕制度,笔者认为国内当前土地休耕应当大力发展预测模型,科学规划休耕区域,并且加强政府监督,改变当前的休耕补贴方式,刺激更多科研单位和商业公司加入到土地休耕的工作中。     

风险感知、保险认知与养殖户肉鸡保险购买意愿 ——基于肉鸡主产区的实证分析

风险管理是现代农业经营中的重要问题,随着农业市场化程度的加深,肉鸡产业面临着多种风险来源的冲击。农业保险作为有效的现代风险管理工具,在保障产业可持续发展、减少农户家庭收入波动方面发挥了重要作用。基于行为金融理论,利用江苏、安徽、山东、河南和辽宁5个肉鸡主产区的调研数据,运用有序Logit模型,分析风险感知与保险认知对养殖户保险购买意愿的影响,探讨两者间的交互影响机制。结果表明,尽管66.43%的农户认为肉鸡养殖保险在风险管控中的必要性较强,但86.43%的农户对保险内容的了解程度不高,仅有20.71%的农户具有强烈的保险购买意愿。生产风险感知对养殖户的保险购买意愿有促进作用。保险认知中,农户对保险重要性认知程度对其保险购买意愿有促进作用;农户对保险内容的了解程度对其保险购买意愿具有显著的抑制作用,主要由于当前肉鸡保险产品设计不合理,保险内容与农户需求不匹配,保险理赔效果不佳,对保险内容了解程度越高反而会降低农户的购买意愿。风险感知和保险认知间存在交互影响,即风险感知对农户保险购买意愿的提高效果会随着对保险重要性认知程度的提高而增强,随着对保险内容了解程度的提高而减弱。因此,政府应加强农户的风险管理教育与培训,提高其风险管理意识,同时完善和优化当前肉鸡保险的内容,使之与农户需求相匹配,并通过更广泛的宣传来提高养殖户对于肉鸡保险的认知,从而增强农户对保险的购买意愿。     

大豆DUS测试标准品种测试性状表达差异性分析

用符合系数(COC)对大豆DUS(特异性、一致性和稳定性)测试标准品种在黑龙江生态条件下的性状表现与测试指南的差异性进行了分析.结果显示:除吉林20、铁丰20的符合系数小于0.95外,共余均大于0.95,东农42、湘春豆17、哲春3号、早熟18、矮脚早、东农95019、韦尔金、中黄3号、东农黑豆1号的符合系数等于1,符合系数大小与品种的来源无显著关系.约3/4的测试性状的符合系数大于0.99,其中13个性状的符合系数为1;85.71%的必测性状的符合系数大于0.99,71.43%的必测性状的符合系数等于1,质量性状符合系数大于数量性状符合系数,质量性状中100%的性状符合系数大于0.98;数量性状中生育期的符合系数最小,株高次之.     

Characterizing environmental and spatial variables associated with the incidental catch of olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific purse‐seine fishery

In the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), a region of high fishing activity, olive ridley (Lepidochelis olivacea) and other sea turtles are accidentally caught in fishing nets with tuna and other animals. To date, the interaction between fishing activity, ocean conditions and sea turtle incidental catch in the ETP has been described and quantified, but the factors leading to the interaction of olive ridleys and fishing activity are not well understood. This information is essential for the development of future management strategies that avoid bycatch and incidental captures of sea turtles. We used Generalized additive models (GAM) to analyze the relationship between olive ridley incidental catch per unit effort (iCPUE) in the ETP purse‐seine fisheries and environmental conditions, geographic extent and fishing set type (associated with dolphins, floating objects or in free‐swimming tuna schools). Our results suggest that water temperature, set type and geographic location (latitude, longitude and distance to nesting beaches) are the most important predictor variables to describe the probability of a capture event, with the highest iCPUE observed in sets made over floating objects. With the environmental predictors used, sea surface temperatures (SST) of 26–30°C and chlorophyll‐a (chl‐a) concentrations <0.36 mg m^?3 were associated with the highest probability of an incidental catch. Temporally, the highest probability of an incidental catch was observed in the second half of the year (June to December). Four regions were observed as high incidental catch hotspots: North and south of the equator between 0–10°N; 0–10°S and from 120 to 140°W; and along the Colombian coast and surrounding regions.     

中国食糖供求分析与预测

利用预测模型从原料生产的角度,分析了我国食糖供给的变化趋势;然后从居民用糖和工业用糖两个方面,研究了食糖需求的变化;最后从贸易的角度,探讨了我国满足国内食糖供需缺口的可能途径。研究发现：食糖的供给潜力主要在于甘蔗糖方面;需求方面,工业用糖量增长较快,是推动食糖需求增长的主要动力。由于食糖需求增长的速度快于供给的增长,我国食糖的供求缺口有不断增加趋势。为避免食糖体系失衡风险,增加国内食糖供给才是解决我国食糖供求矛盾的最佳途径。     

基于有限元及试验技术的制动盘模态分析

针对制动噪声,基于有限元理论和方法,利用有限元分析软件MSC.NASTRAN对某盘式制动器制动盘进行模态分析,得到其固有频率和振型。同时,运用模态试验技术的锤击法对该制动盘进行模态试验,得到了试验模态参数,验证了有限元分析结果的准确性。研究表明,该制动盘前8阶固有频率主要集中在1~10 kHz范围内,对盘式制动器中高频制动噪声具有较大的影响。     

Variability in the composition of lupin (Lupinus angustifolius) meals influences their digestible nutrient and energy value when fed to rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Over a series of seven separate experiments 76 different lupin (Lupinus angustifolius) meals were assessed for their digestible dry matter, protein, amino acid and energy characteristics when fed to rainbow trout. Two reference diets (a common basal diet and a reference lupin meal) were also included in each experiment. Minimal variance in the digestibility parameters of both reference diets was observed among the experiments ensuring that there was a high degree of robustness in the across-experiment evaluations. Using simple and multiple-regression techniques, principal diet and ingredient composition factors affecting diet and ingredient digestibilities and ingredient digestible values were explored within the dataset. Using simple linear regression, it was shown that nitrogen digestibility of the lupin meals was negatively influenced by ingredient lignin content, but positively affected ingredient protein (N × 6.25) content. The energy digestibility of the lupin meals was positively affected by a range of compositional features including protein, sum of amino acids and negatively affected by carbohydrate content. The digestible nutrient and energy content of the meals reflected the combined effects of both ingredient digestibilities and ingredient composition. The digestible nitrogen content of the lupin meals was positively affected by protein (N × 6.25), sum of amino acids and energy content, but was negatively affected by lignin and carbohydrate content. The digestible sum of amino acids was also positively affected by protein, sum of amino acids, but only negatively affected by carbohydrate content, not lignin content. The digestible energy content of the lupin meals was also positively affected by protein, sum of amino acids and their own energy density, but only negatively affected by carbohydrate content. Multiple linear regression modelling supported that together ingredient protein and lignin content were the strongest predictors of digestible protein value, explaining close to 60% of the variability in this parameter. Discrete reassessment of these relationships using non-linear analysis methods provided a stronger interpretation of the ingredient composition effects. In recognition of this, a functional model including terms for ingredient protein and lignin content on the digestible protein value was defined. This study demonstrates that within one raw material type that not only does significant variability in the digestible value of the raw materials exist, but that it is possible to identify compositional features of that raw material that are intrinsically influencing their own digestible value.     

大麦籽粒抗性淀粉含量快速测定方法研究

为探索快速高效测定大麦籽粒中抗性淀粉含量的方法,利用衰减全反射中红外（attenuated total reflection mid-infrared spectroscopy,ATR-MIR）和近红外（near-infrared spectroscopy,NIR）光谱技术,分别用3种不同方法进行预处理,建立大麦样品的抗性淀粉含量快速测定红外模型,通过不同预处理预测模型的校正和内部交叉验证结果的比较,依据决定系数（r）和均方根误差（RMSE）筛选出基于ATR-MIR和NIR光谱的最佳预测模型,再对最佳预测模型进行外部验证。结果表明,经基线位移校正+范围归一化（BOC+RN）预处理后的PLS模型为最佳ATR-MIR预测模型;经标准正态变换+Savitzky-Golay法一阶求导（SNV+1thD）的预处理模型为最佳NIR预测模型。用验证集材料对BOC+RN和SNV+1thD最佳预测模型的预测效果进行外部验证,光谱预测值与化学测定值之间没有显著差异,说明两种方法均可以用于大麦籽粒抗性淀粉含量测定;ATR-MIR光谱比NIR光谱具有更好的预测能力。     

不同类型大麦品种籽粒中酚酸类化合物含量的差异

为了探明不同类型大麦品种籽粒中酚酸类化合物含量的差异,采用超声辅助提取、高效液相色谱测定的方法对15个大麦品种（系）籽粒中的13种酚酸含量进行了比较分析。结果表明,大麦籽粒中的酚酸类化合物主要是羟基苯甲酸衍生物,羟基肉桂酸衍生物含量较少。不同类型大麦品种籽粒中酚酸类化合物的含量存在极显著的差异,黑皮大麦籽粒中总羟基苯甲酸衍生物（THBA）、总羟基肉桂酸衍生物（THCA）和总酚酸（TPA）的含量均高于非黑皮大麦;二棱大麦籽粒中THBA、THCA和TPA的含量均高于多棱大麦;皮大麦籽粒中THCA和TPA的含量高于裸大麦,但THBA的含量与裸大麦无显著差异。另外,与裸大麦相比,皮大麦籽粒中含有更为丰富的酚酸种类。     

黄早四在我国玉米育种和生产中的重要地位

优良自交系黄早四是我国玉米育种和种子生产中最重要的骨干材料之一，它具有配合力高、植株紧凑、综合农艺性状好的突出特点，因而被广泛应用。近二十年来，由黄早四组配的杂交种，经省市以上审定推广的就有42个，黄早四杂交种累计推广面积达6亿亩以上，每年种植面积在5千万亩以上，为我国玉米育种和生产作出了巨大的贡献。由它组配的玉米杂交种株型紧凑或半紧凑，我国紧凑型玉米杂交种的选育和高产栽培研究得到了很大的发展。黄早四还是我国重要的种质材料，一大批黄早四衍生系及其杂交种育成。本文还讨论了优良地方种质的重新筛选改良，杂种优势模式和建立自交系发放制度等问题。