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991.
Land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change are two major factors affecting the provision of ecosystem services which are closely related to human well-being. However, a clear understanding of the relationships between these two factors and ecosystem services in Central Asia is still lacking. This study aimed to comprehensively assess ecosystem services in Central Asia and analyze how they are impacted by changes in LULC and climate. The spatiotemporal patterns of three ecosystem services during the period of 2000-2015, namely the net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil retention, were quantified and mapped by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Scenarios were used to determine the relative importance and combined effect of LULC change and climate change on ecosystem services. Then, the relationships between climate factors (precipitation and temperature) and ecosystem services, as well as between LULC change and ecosystem services, were further discussed. The results showed that the high values of ecosystem services appeared in the southeast of Central Asia. Among the six biomes (alpine forest region (AFR), alpine meadow region (AMR), typical steppe region (TSR), desert steppe region (DSR), desert region (DR), and lake region (LR)), the values of ecosystem services followed the order of AFR>AMR>TSR>DSR> DR>LR. In addition, the values of ecosystem services fluctuated during the period of 2000-2015, with the most significant decreases observed in the southeast mountainous area and northwest of Central Asia. LULC change had a greater impact on the NPP, while climate change had a stronger influence on the water yield and soil retention. The combined LULC change and climate change exhibited a significant synergistic effect on ecosystem services in most of Central Asia. Moreover, ecosystem services were more strongly and positively correlated with precipitation than with temperature. The greening of desert areas and forest land expansion could improve ecosystem services, but unreasonable development of cropland and urbanization have had an adverse impact on ecosystem services. According to the results, ecological stability in Central Asia can be achieved through the natural vegetation protection, reasonable urbanization, and ecological agriculture development. 相似文献
992.
YAO Linlin 《干旱区科学》2022,14(5):521-536
Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in Central Asia (including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan), resulting many environmental limitations. In this study, we projected hydrothermal condition in Central Asia based on bias-corrected multi-model ensembles (MMEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (SSP126 (SSP1-RCP2.6), SSP245 (SSP2-RCP4.5), SSP460 (SSP4-RCP6.0), and SSP585 (SSP5-RCP8.5)) during 2015-2100. The bias correction and spatial disaggregation, water-thermal product index, and sensitivity analysis were used in this study. The results showed that the hydrothermal condition is mismatched in the central and southern deserts, whereas the region of Pamir Mountains and Tianshan Mountains as well as the northern plains of Kazakhstan showed a matched hydrothermal condition. Compared with the historical period, the matched degree of hydrothermal condition improves during 2046-2075, but degenerates during 2015-2044 and 2076-2100. The change of hydrothermal condition is sensitive to precipitation in the northern regions and the maximum temperatures in the southern regions. The result suggests that the optimal scenario in Central Asia is SSP126 scenario, while SSP585 scenario brings further hydrothermal contradictions. This study provides scientific information for the development and sustainable utilization of hydrothermal resources in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change. 相似文献
993.
994.
西非海域包括中东大西洋和东南大西洋两个渔区,是全球重要的渔业生产区域,科学预测其未来渔获量变化趋势,有利于该海域渔业资源的科学管理和开发。根据2000—2020年联合国粮农组织(FAO)提供的渔获量数据,采用灰色关联分析法和灰色预测理论,分别分析了影响中东大西洋和东南大西洋总渔获量的主要渔获类别,建立多种 GM (1,N)模型并进行比较分析,同时利用2018—2020年渔获量数据进行验证,获得最优GM(1,N)模型预测2021—2025年中东大西洋和东南大西洋总渔获量。本研究分析发现两海域最优预测模型均为GM(1,6),模型预测值与原始值的灰色关联系数均最大,分别为0.825和0.867,平均相对误差均为最小,分别为2.705%和1.734%;2018—2020年渔获量预测平均相对误差分别为4.63%和8.24%;2021—2025年中东大西洋和东南大西洋总渔获量预测值分别为497.67~588.79万t和138.20~147.41万t。研究认为,中东大西洋总渔获量在十四五期间最多增长约为48万t,增长幅度较小,建议加强资源养护、管控捕捞规模,制定和实施禁渔期等有效管理养护措施,建立科学合理渔业合作机制;东南大西洋总渔获量呈平稳波动状态,建议加强重点鱼种的养护管理,深化区域渔业合作,适当扩大捕捞海域范围,实现渔业可持续利用。 相似文献