数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

不确定度评定方法在汽车事故再现中的应用

介绍了不确定度理论及其评定方法，结合车辆碰撞事故的具体特点，给出了基于能量守恒的车速计算表达式．通过选择适当的输入参数作为不确定因子，分别计算各分量等效速度标准不确定度．考虑不确定度累积和传播，得到车速输出结果的合成标准不确定度和展伸不确定度，以此检验事故再现结果的准确程度．通过具体事故案例的分析计算和计算机检验，验证该方法的适用性．     

混合态的不确定关系与压缩效应

在关于混合态的海森堡不确定关系的基础上，研究了纯态和混合态的最小不确定性和压缩效应.虽然最小不确定态必定是纯态，但在某些并非最小不确定态的纯态或混合态中，依然可 以实现力学量不确定度的压缩.还给出了普通统计学的不确定关系，它们不涉及量子相干性却与量子力学的海森堡不确定关系具有相似的数学结构.     

An investigation of uncertainty in field habitat mapping and the implications for detecting land cover change

Land cover data for landscape ecological studies are frequently obtained by field survey. In the United Kingdom, temporally separated field surveys have been used to identify the locations and magnitudes of recent changes in land cover. However, such map data contain errors which may seriously hinder the identification of land cover change and the extent and locations of rare landscape features. This paper investigates the extent of the differences between two sets of maps derived from field surveys within the Northumberland National Park in 1991 and 1992. The method used in each survey was the Phase 1 approach of the Nature Conservancy Council of Great Britain. Differences between maps were greatest for the land cover types with the smallest areas. Overall spatial correspondence between maps was found to be only 44.4%. A maximum of 14.4% of the total area surveyed was found to have undergone genuine land cover change. The remaining discrepancies, equivalent to 41.2% of the total survey area, were attributed primarily to differences of land cover interpretation between surveyors (classification error). Differences in boundary locations (positional error) were also noted, but were found to be a relatively minor source of error. The implications for the detection of land cover change and habitat mapping are discussed.     

新冠肺炎疫情下我国农产品供需失衡的形成机制研究

农产品供需失衡是新冠肺炎爆发初期疫情严重国家所面临的普遍难题,给农业生产者收入和城市消费者福利造成重大损失。在现有文献基础上,指出新冠肺炎疫情下我国农产品供需失衡：生产端农产品销售困难、农民损失惨重,消费端农产品供应偏紧、居民福利受损的基本特征。运用不确定性经济学理论,系统分析我国农产品供需失衡问题形成的内在机制,认为新冠肺炎疫情的突然爆发,给农产品流通从业人员的健康安全带来严重的不确定性,导致农产品流通成本猛然增加,使得农产品交易与物流被迫中断,是疫情下供需失衡的主要原因。因此,建议我国政府在新的重大疫情爆发之时,应及时推行公共卫生事件健康保险,鼓励农产品流通模式创新,增加农产品流通临时补贴、定向发布疫情风险等级信息,开展从业人员防疫能力培训,以降低疫情爆发所产生的额外成本,保障农产品供应链的有效运转和农业产业链的安全稳定,避免类似的供需失衡问题再度发生。     

Predicting soil depth in a large and complex area using machine learning and environmental correlations

Soil depth is critical for eco-hydrological modeling, carbon storage calculation and land evaluation. However, its spatial variation is poorly understood and rarely mapped. With a limited number of sparse samples, how to predict soil depth in a large area of complex landscapes is still an issue. This study constructed an ensemble machine learning model, i.e.,quantile regression forest, to quantify the relationship between soil depth and environmental conditions. The model was then combined with ...     

A GIS-based plant prediction model for wetland ecosystems

An existing non-spatial model for the prediction of response of wetland plant species on ecological factors has been transformed into a GIS-based prediction model which produces spatial output at the landscape scale. The input, spatial patterns of the ecological factors, were constructed with geostatistical spatial interpolation (kriging). With this GIS-based model the spatial patterns of presence and absence of 78 wetland plant species are predicted for an area with wetlands in the Netherlands of approximately 500 square kilometers. The GIS-based model has been validated, and the estimated uncertainty of the input has been propagated through the model. At the species level the output shows spatially coherent and non-random patterns. The validation is affected by the propagation of input errors through the model. The number of valid predictions declines approximately 10–20% when 95% confidence intervals are used in the validation. This study shows that it is feasible to use a geostatistical interpolation method to construct spatial patterns of ecological factors on a landscape scale and to use these patterns as input for a GIS-based prediction model. The added uncertainty on the input values however, affects the number of valid predictions of the model.     

Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

基于最大疑似度概率统计的不确定性网上故障诊断

针对汽车发动机异响类故障是故障诊断的难点,应用"基于最大疑似度的概率统计"法对汽车发动机的异响类不确定性故障进行了推理诊断,并用更新知识库的方法实现了对电脑常见故障现象的故障诊断,推理结果与实际情况基本一致,证明"基于最大疑似度的概率统计"法应用于不确定性故障诊断科学有效.