Do model choice and sample ratios separately or simultaneously influence soil organic matter prediction?

This study was performed to examine the separate and simultaneous influence of predictive models’ choice alongside sample ratios selection in soil organic matter (SOM). The research was carried out in northern Morocco, characterized by relatively cold weather and diverse geological conditions. The dataset herein used accounted for 1591 soil samples, which were randomly split into the following ratios: 10% (～150 sample ratio), 20% (～250 sample ratio), 35% (～450 sample ratio), 50% (～600 sample ratio) and 95% (～1200 sample ratio). Models herein involved were ordinary kriging (OK), regression kriging (RK), multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest (RF), quantile regression forest (QRF), Gaussian process regression (GPR) and an ensemble model. The findings in the study showed that the accuracy of SOM prediction is sensitive to both predictive models and sample ratios. OK combined with 95% sample ratio performed equally to RF in conjunction with all the sample ratios, as the latter did not show much sensitivity to sample ratios. ANOVA results revealed that RF with a ～10% sample ratio could also be optimum for predicting SOM in the study area. In conclusion, the findings herein reported could be instrumental for producing cost-effective detailed and accurate spatial estimation of SOM in other sites. Furthermore, they could serve as a baseline study for future research in the region or elsewhere. Therefore, we recommend conducting series of simulation of all possible combinations between various predictive models and sample ratios as a preliminary step in soil organic matter prediction.     

微波消解-原子荧光光谱法测定豆粉中总汞的不确定度评定

为了得到准确而完善的检测结果,对微波消解-原子荧光光谱法测定豆粉中总汞结果的不确定度进行了评定,结合各不确定度分量对测定方法中不确定度的主要来源进行了分析。结果表明:样品的前处理方法以及试样的重复性对获得准确测定结果尤为重要,标准曲线的配制也是重要的不确定度来源,同时需要确保仪器的稳定性,而试样定容和样品称样引入的不确定度极低,可以忽略。通过不确定度的评定,明确了测定过程中主要误差的来源,为降低检测过程中的误差提供了依据。     

Comparison of traditional and environmental DNA survey methods for detecting rare and abundant freshwater fish

1. Detecting rare species is often a necessity for conservation and management, yet challenging for many field survey methods. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is a highly promising solution that has been shown to outperform many established survey methods.
2. Macquarie perch (Macquaria australasica) is an endangered native species that has declined significantly in range and abundance. Detection of M. australasica was compared with an abundant alien fish species (Oncorhynchus mykiss) using eDNA and three conventional survey methods: gill nets, electrofishing and fyke nets.
3. eDNA occupancy estimates for both fish species were compared using four different models to investigate what effect these differences have on false positives and false negatives for the rare and common fish species. These models used unadjusted eDNA detections in water samples, eDNA detections that have been screened using a limit of detection method to remove potential false positives, eDNA data supplemented with a second survey method, or eDNA data augmented with sequencing of positive polymerase chain reaction replicates.
4. eDNA surveying as a single detection method was found to be more efficient and sensitive compared with each capture method separately and combined. Occupancy estimates for the common and rare species did not vary significantly between the four site occupancy-detection models, suggesting that supplementary data may not have as much effect on occupancy estimates compared with other approaches such as temporal or spatial sampling.
5. We conclude that eDNA outperforms the three established survey methods for both a rare and common freshwater fish species. Although there was no significant effect of augmenting eDNA survey methods with other survey data, additional data may improve confidence in detection, and provide confirmatory evidence for unexpected or new detections of a species.

     

Influences of in-stream habitat and upstream land-use on site occupancy of the Kanawha darter (Etheostoma kanawhae): A narrowly distributed species from the New River (Upper Kanawha Basin)

1. Freshwater communities are threatened by the conversion of natural landscapes for urban and agricultural purposes. Changes to land use may disrupt stream nutrient and geomorphological processes and reduce water quality, increase sedimentation, and decrease habitat heterogeneity eventually leading to species loss and decreases in ecosystem productivity. Endemic species are frequently at greater risk of habitat-mediated fragmentation and extirpation due to their constrained distributions.
2. The Kanawha darter (Etheostoma kanawhae) is an understudied fish endemic to the New River Drainage in North Carolina and Virginia, USA. To investigate the potential effect(s) of land-use change on Kanawha darters, naïve occupancy was modelled using instream habitat characteristics and upstream forest cover.
3. Generalized linear models revealed that instream habitat and forest cover are reliable predictors of Kanawha darter site occupancy. Specifically, models demonstrated that occupancy increased in reaches with reduced stream width, velocity, and bedrock substrate but higher concentrations of coarse woody material. Kanawha darter occupancy was also positively associated with the extent of forest cover in upstream catchments.
4. Although Kanawha darters are not currently considered imperilled, most populations occurred in isolated reaches separated by large sections of unoccupied habitat. Continuing ex-urban development in riparian zones is likely to be the primary threat to Kanawha darters and other endemic species in this catchment. Resource managers and stakeholders should preserve forest cover in headwaters and occupied tributaries and protect or restore riparian zones along the main-stem South and North Forks of the New River to preserve high-quality habitat and enhance connectivity among isolated Kanawha darter populations.
5. As human populations in montane regions continue to grow, there is a need to understand how land-use change affects endemic freshwater species. This study further supports the importance of retaining forest cover as an effective strategy for protecting and restoring populations of endemic fishes in high-gradient streams.

     

Historical and contemporary habitat use of sperm whales around the Galápagos Archipelago: Implications for conservation

1. Sperm whales have occupied the waters off the Galápagos Islands, Ecuador, for at least the past 200 years. During the 19^th century, they were the target of intensive whaling that severely depleted the population. In recent times, after commercial whaling ended, sperm whales in the region remain vulnerable to multiple threats, especially potential entanglement in fishing gear, which may hinder their ability to recover from the whaling era.
2. As a highly mobile, long-lived species, long-term analysis of the habitat use of sperm whales is necessary to establish effective conservation and management strategies. Here, contemporary (1985–2014) and historical (1830–1850) sperm whale habitat use off the Galápagos Islands was analysed and contrasted to the extent of the Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR). Contemporary habitat use and its variability over time were modelled as a function of geographic, oceanographic, and topographic variables using generalized additive models.
3. The fine-scale habitat (<50 km) used by sperm whales was associated with topographic (i.e. depth and slope) and oceanographic characteristics (i.e. relative sea surface temperature and standard deviation of sea surface temperature), but these preferences varied over time.
4. While historical and contemporary data indicate that sperm whale habitat primarily occurred within the boundaries of the GMR, in recent years, whales were found up to 30.1% of the time outside the GMR, potentially overlapping with commercial fisheries operating in the area.
5. The dynamic nature of the relationship of this nomadic species with its habitat highlights the need of large-scale conservation efforts across the Eastern Tropical Pacific region, including the wide-scale enforcement of regulations requiring the use of Automatic Identification System in fishing vessels, the promotion of on-board fisheries observer programmes, the development of adaptive management strategies, and international collaboration to identify and mitigate threats.

     

Drivers for spatial modelling of a critically endangered seabird on a dynamic ocean area: Balearic shearwaters are non-vegetarian

1. Spatial modelling is an important research tool to improve our knowledge about the distribution of wildlife in the ocean. Using different modelling techniques (MaxEnt and a generalized linear mixed model), a predictive habitat suitability model was developed for one of the most threatened seabirds in the world: the Balearic shearwater, Puffinus mauretanicus.
2. Models were developed using a 10-year dataset from the Gulf of Cádiz (on the south-western Iberian Peninsula), a key foraging area for Balearic shearwaters during migration and the non-breeding season.
3. Predictive habitat maps strongly matched the observed distribution patterns, pointing to bathymetric features as the main modelling drivers. The species was concentrated on shallow areas (up to approximately 100 m in depth) of the continental shelf, very close to the mouth of the Guadalquivir River. In contrast with previous studies, Balearic shearwater distribution in the highly dynamic Gulf of Cádiz was not correlated with areas of high chlorophyll a concentration.
4. This lack of spatial correlation probably arises from the delay between the phytoplankton bloom and the response of the zooplankton and small fish that are preyed upon by Balearic shearwaters, which may result in important displacements of this trophic chain across the Gulf of Cádiz.
5. The analysis presented contributes to a better understanding of the spatial distribution and ecology of the critically endangered top predator in the Gulf of Cádiz and offers important information to improve management plans.

     

Amazon floodplain hydrology and implications for aquatic conservation

1. The amplitude, duration, frequency, and predictability of runoff and inundation of aquatic habitats are key hydrological characteristics linked to aquatic ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, but they are seldom integrated into analyses of Amazon floodplain ecology. Remote sensing approaches, measurements and modelling of floodplain hydrology provide a basis for this integration.
2. Effective legislation to protect floodplains and other wetlands depends on operational definitions that require application of hydrological data.
3. Extent and changes of flooded areas are linked to fish diversity and to presence and growth of flooded forests and floating plants.
4. Dam construction reduces river system connectivity and modifies the flood pulse, with major negative implications for floodplain ecosystems adapted to and dependent on a natural flood regime.
5. Trends and variability in climate plus deforestation are altering the Amazon's hydrological cycle, causing changes in discharge and flooded area with concomitant ecological impacts.

     

Longer migration not necessarily the costliest strategy for migrating humpback whales

1. Long‐distance migration is a demanding physical activity, and how well animals manage the associated costs will have important implications for their fitness.
2. The Oceania humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population is recovering from past exploitation markedly slower than the neighbouring east Australian whales. The reasons for this are unknown, although higher energetic costs of longer migratory distances could be a possible explanation. Due to their fully aquatic lives, studying the energy expenditure of these large animals requires methods that do not rely on capturing the animal, such as bioenergetic models.
3. A state‐space model was fitted to satellite data to infer behavioural states for southern migrating whales. Travel speeds and behavioural states were used in a bioenergetic model to estimate the energetic cost of the migration phase. Relative differences in average duration, distance, and energetic costs were compared between migratory routes and distances.
4. Total energy used during migration was a trade‐off between cost of transport (determined by travel speed) and daily maintenance (determined by daily basal metabolic costs). Oceania whales migrating to the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas travelled fastest and furthest, 15 and 21% further than whales migrating to the d'Urville Sea (east Australian whales) and Ross Sea, respectively. Therefore, they had the highest cost of transport, 25 and 85% higher than for d'Urville Sea and Ross Sea whales, respectively. However, energy saved in terms of daily maintenance by using fewer days to complete a longer migration resulted in only a 6–7% increase in total energetic cost.
5. The results highlight that travelling further does not necessarily translate into an increase in total energy expenditure for migratory whales, since they can compensate for longer distance by travelling faster. Further research on the energetics of different whale populations could provide insight into the productivity of Southern Ocean feeding regions and help understand the environmental and anthropogenic effects on the whales' energy budgets.

     

Using behavioral landscape ecology to predict species’ responses to land-use and climate change

Climate change and habitat destruction are widely recognized as major threats to species’ survival. As a result of these anthropogenic impacts, species are often forced into novel landscapes where their persistence is difficult to predict. Knowledge of how individuals move or disperse through the landscape, choose habitat in which to settle, and produce offspring which survive to repeat the process can greatly improve our ability to predict species’ persistence. The field of behavioral landscape ecology uses a strong theoretical base to explore, often experimentally, how the behavior of a particular species is affected by heterogeneous and rapidly changing landscapes and can offer valuable insight for managing species in the face of human-induced environmental changes. When interpreted by modelers, results of landscape-level behavioral experiments can be quantified for use in predictive models. To this end, we summarize the methods and results of research using direct experimental manipulation techniques broken into the following categories: translocations, playback experiments, food resource manipulations, manipulations of reproductive success, direct manipulations of the landscape, and manipulations of predation risk. We review and place in a theoretical framework the results from this emerging body of research regarding how organisms move in and respond to different types of landscapes, both natural and human-altered. We go onto highlight the potential of each experimental method to quantify different processes, which may be useful when interpreted by modelers attempting to parameterize predictive models. Finally, we suggest future directions for experimental research that will allow for greater integration of behavioral landscape ecology and predictive modeling.