Ecological and eco‐social models for the introduction of the abalone Haliotis discus hannai into benthic systems of north‐central Chile: sustainability assessment

• 1. Loop models of ecological and socio‐economic systems were developed to analyse and predict the impact of a possible accidental introduction (escapes) of the abalone Haliotis discus hannai into a benthic community of north‐central Chile.
• 2. Although the ‘new’ ecological system resulting from a successful invasion of abalone would be locally stable, the establishment of a self‐enhanced dynamic of recruits would transform this into an unstable system.
• 3. The harvest of the kelp, Lessonia trabeculata and other macroalgae is not recommended because this destabilizes the system. The harvest of abalone adults is only sustainable if they do not exert a negative effect upon other native invertebrates.
• 4. The eco‐social model showed three important results: (1) if the variables ‘Price’ and ‘Farming’ are in expansion and stationary dynamics, then the models were found unstable; (2) a self‐enhanced dynamic of abalone recruits tends toward instability; and (3) the harvest of the kelp L. trabeculata and other macroalgae would be non‐sustainable.
• 5. Based on our results, the sustainable development of extensive farming of H. discus hannai in the sea would be not reached. If it is done, an intensive monitoring of the community after introduction into the system is strongly recommended. Likewise, the farming of macroalgal species (source of food for abalone) should be promoted in order to avoid harvesting of macroalgae from natural systems.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GIS-based plant prediction model for wetland ecosystems

An existing non-spatial model for the prediction of response of wetland plant species on ecological factors has been transformed into a GIS-based prediction model which produces spatial output at the landscape scale. The input, spatial patterns of the ecological factors, were constructed with geostatistical spatial interpolation (kriging). With this GIS-based model the spatial patterns of presence and absence of 78 wetland plant species are predicted for an area with wetlands in the Netherlands of approximately 500 square kilometers. The GIS-based model has been validated, and the estimated uncertainty of the input has been propagated through the model. At the species level the output shows spatially coherent and non-random patterns. The validation is affected by the propagation of input errors through the model. The number of valid predictions declines approximately 10–20% when 95% confidence intervals are used in the validation. This study shows that it is feasible to use a geostatistical interpolation method to construct spatial patterns of ecological factors on a landscape scale and to use these patterns as input for a GIS-based prediction model. The added uncertainty on the input values however, affects the number of valid predictions of the model.     

温度和湿度对二化螟存活率与繁殖力影响的回归模型

在室内恒温、恒湿条件下系统观察了不同温湿度对二化螟存活率与繁殖力的影响。结果表明:温度和湿度对二化螟各虫态的存活率和成虫的繁殖力有显著的影响,生长发育最适宜的温度为28℃,相对湿度为85%~90%。二化螟各虫态存活率和成虫繁殖力与温度、湿度均呈二次抛物线关系。分别建立了二化螟各虫态的存活率和成虫的繁殖力的回归预测模型。     

Adapting bioenergetic factorial modelling to understand the implications of heat stress on barramundi (Lates calcarifer) growth,feed utilisation and optimal protein and energy requirements – potential strategies for dealing with climate change?

The implications of temperature on bioenergetics for barramundi (Lates calcarifer) were defined in an improved factorial model that encompassed revised parameters accounting for effects over the temperature range of 16–39 °C and size range of 10–3000 g. A revised growth function describing weight gain by barramundi as a function of fish weight and temperature was derived from farm and laboratory data and included a term for a shift in optimal temperature with fish size: Gain (g fish^?1 day^?1) = (K + xT + yT ² + zT³) * (weight)^ax+b. Maintenance energy and protein demand functions were also derived on a similar form, and all three functions combined to form the basis of a factorial model for energy and protein demand. Using this model, optimal iterative feed specifications were defined for a range of fish sizes at temperatures of 25, 30 and 35 °C. A feed demand model was also developed based on the demand for digestible energy (DE) at each of these temperatures. The model shows that at high temperatures (35 °C), there is an increase in digestible protein (DP) to DE demand, and that with increasing size, there is a decrease in the DP to DE demand.     

CFG桩复合地基承载力模糊能度可靠性分析方法

在分析CFG桩复合地基承载力计算方法的基础上，根据其影响因素的区间性与模糊性特点，提出了采用三角模糊数表示计算参数取值，建立出CFG桩复合地基承载力模糊分析模型.通过探讨三角模糊数构造方法，建立出CFG桩复合地基承载力计算参数三角模糊确定方法，然后，基于给定安全系数与承载力设计构建功能函数，引入截集理论与区间运算规则，建立CFG桩复合地基承载力模糊能度可靠性分析方法.工程实例分析表明了该方法对CFG桩复合地基承载力进行分析计算的合理性与易操作性.在勘察数据与设计资料有限，不能直接采用概率可靠性分析方法的情况下，该方法为CFG桩复合地基承载能力可靠性分析与评价提供了一种精度较高的方法.     

大豆水溶性蛋白含量测定的不确定度评定

建立大豆水溶性蛋白含量测定（NY/T 1205-2006）不确定度评定的数学模型,对检测过程中带来的各个不确定度分量进行识别和量化,提出应用该方法检测的不确定度评定结果。     

From shallow to deep waters: habitats used by larval lampreys (genus Petromyzon and Lampetra) over a western European basin

Abstract –  Habitat requirements of lamprey ammocoetes (Petromyzon marinus and Lampetra genus) were investigated, for the first time, from shallow to deep waters, at different spatial scales across the Gironde‐Dordogne continuum, thanks to a water suction dredge. Fish‐habitat relationships were assessed through two complementary statistical analyses: habitat‐use curves and habitat suitability models using the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) technique. Analyses were performed on a small‐size data set that was characterised by the low prevalence of lamprey. The sea lamprey larvae occurred in deeper areas than their Lampetra genus counterparts. ‘Pools’ of 2 m’ depth and more were optimal habitats for the former species. Among the environmental variables retained to model lamprey occurrences, the mesohabitat (a categorical variable) was demonstrated to be highly influential, in terms of fine grain‐size substratum and vegetation cover. These preliminary results suggest that monitoring using the water suction dredge method may contribute to sea lamprey conservation.     

转基因油菜TOPAS 19/2质粒分子多家协同实验及不确定度评定

质粒分子是转基因产品核酸定量检测的一类新型标准物质,具有易制备、周期短、成本低等特点。采用实时荧光定量PCR技术,并协同7家实验室对转基因油菜TOPAS 19/2质粒分子进行了基因组的可替代性研究、协同实验研究及不确定度评定。T检验表明,质粒和基因组所产生的内源和外源基因标准曲线的斜率和线性相关系数没有显著性差异。对多家定值的数据进行了统计分析得出,TOPAS19/2质粒分子的量值结果0.910,扩展标准不确定度（K=2）为0.013。     

Evaluation of unconstrained and constrained mathematical functions to model girth growth of rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis) using young age measurements

No attempt has been made to date to model growth in girth of rubber tree (Hevea brasiliansis). We evaluated the few widely used growth functions to identify the most parsimonious and biologically reasonable model for describing the girth growth of young rubber trees based on an incomplete set of young age measurements. Monthly data for girth of immature trees (age 2 to 12 years) from two locations were subjected to modelling. Reparameterized, unconstrained and constrained growth functions of Richards (RM), Gompertz (GM) and the monomolecular model (MM) were fitted to data. Duration of growth was the constraint introduced. In the first stage, we attempted a population average (PA) model to capture the trend in growth. The best PA model wasfitted as a subject specific (SS) model. We used appropriate error variance-covariance structure to account for correlation due to repeated measurements over time. Unconstrained functions underestimated the asymptotic maximum that did not reflect the carrying capacity of the locations. Underestimations were attributed to the partial set of measurements made during the early growth phase of the trees. MM proved superior to RM and GM. In the random coefficient models, both Gf and G0 appeared to be influenced by tree level effects. Inclusion of diagonal definite positive matrix removed the correlation between random effects.The results were similar at both locations. In the overall assessment MM appeared as the candidate model for studying the girth-age relationships in Hevea trees. Based on the fitted model we conclude that, in Hevea trees, growth rate is maintained at maximum value at t0, then decreases until the final state at dG/dt ≥ 0, resulting in yield curve with no period of accelerating growth. One physiological explanation is that photosynthetic activity in Hevea trees decreases as girth increases and constructive metabolism is larger than destructive metabolism.