FOAM, a new simple benthic degradative module for the LAMP3D model: an application to a Mediterranean fish farm

The modelling framework already introduced by Doglioli, Magaldi, Vezzulli and Tucci to predict the potential impact of a marine fish farm is improved following different directions, namely (1) real historic current-metre data are used to force the simulations, (2) settling velocity values specifically targeting Mediterranean fish species are used, and (3) a new benthic degradative module, the Finite Organic Accumulation Module, is added to the modelling framework. The Finite Organic Accumulation Module uses the output of the other functional units of the modelling framework to calculate the organic load on the seabed. The Finite Organic Accumulation Module considers the natural capability of the seafloor in absorbing part of the organic load. Different remineralization rates reflect the sediment stress level according to the work of Findlay and Watling. Organic degradation for both uneaten feed and faeces is evaluated by changing the release modality (continuous and periodical) and by varying the settling velocities. It is found that the maximum impact on the benthic community is observed either for quickly sinking uneaten feed released twice a day, or for less intense near-bottom current conditions. If both the above-mentioned scenarios coexist, a high stress level is established in the sediment. The model also suggests that the use of self-feeders in cages can reduce farm impacts significantly. These results show how the new and more complete modelling framework presented here is able to improve the objectivity in the decision-making processes and how it may be successfully used for planning and monitoring purposes.     

消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为及其影响因素

为探索消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为的影响因素和机制路径,本研究基于PPM理论,构建结构方程模型分析了消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为及其影响因素,并运用多群组分析不同消费者行为影响因素的差异性。结果表明：1）价格、信息、服务不满意构成正向影响消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为的推力因素;感知有用性、搜索、消费体验感构成正向影响迁徙行为的拉力因素;程序转移成本构成负向影响迁徙行为的锚定因素。2）锚定因素负向调节推力因素对迁徙行为的作用效果。3）性别、年龄、学历水平三个人口统计特征在不同假设路径中的影响较为显著。其中女性、30岁及以下、学历水平大专以上的群体更愿意在线上渠道购买生鲜水果。结论丰富了生鲜水果领域消费者迁徙行为的研究成果,并为生鲜电商可持续发展提供了启示。     

Intensification of New Zealand beef farming systems

This study used whole-farm management, nutrient budgeting/greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and feed formulation computer tools to determine the production, environmental and financial implications of intensifying the beef production of typical New Zealand (NZ) sheep and beef farming systems. Two methods of intensification, feeding maize silage (MS) or applying nitrogen (N) fertiliser, were implemented on two farm types differing in the proportions of cultivatable land to hill land (25% vs. 75% hill). In addition, the consequences of intensification by incorporating a beef feedlot (FL) into each of the farm types were also examined.Feeding MS or applying N fertiliser substantially increased the amount of beef produced per ha. Intensifying production was also associated with increased total N leaching and GHG emissions although there were differences between the methods of intensification. Feeding MS resulted in lower environmental impacts than applying N even after taking into account the land to grow the maize for silage. Based on 2007/08 prices, typical NZ sheep and beef farms were making a financial loss and neither method of intensification increased profitability with the exception of small annual applications of N, especially to the 75% hill farm. These small annual additions of N fertiliser (<50 kg N/ha/yr applied in autumn and late winter) resulted in only small increases in annual N leaching (from 11 to 14 kg N/ha) and GHG emissions (from 3280 to 4000 kg CO₂ equivalents/ha). Limited N applications were particularly beneficial to 75% hill farms because small increases in winter carrying capacity resulted in relatively large increases in the utilisation of pasture growth during spring and summer than the 25% hill farms. Intensification by incorporating a beef feedlot reduced environmental emissions per kg of beef produced but considerably decreased profitability due to higher capital, depreciation and labour costs. The lower land-use capability farm type (75% hill) was able to intensify beef production to a proportionally greater extent than the higher land-use capability farm (25% hill) because of greater potential to increase pasture utilisation associated with a lower initial farming intensity and inherent constraints in the pattern of pasture supply.     

温室测控系统开关设备优化组合预测控制方法

考虑开关设备组合作用下温室测控系统的非线性动态特性,提出了结构简单、不需复杂数值计算的离散预测模型,在不小于最大时滞时域内设备组合不变情况下,对设备组合进行滚动优化预测控制,从而大大简化了温室测控系统预测控制算法的复杂性,缓解了测控系统分布大时滞问题。仿真分析和温度的均方差表明,对分布式、大时延温室测控系统的优化组合预测控制方法是有效的。     

非统计理论在灰色建模中的应用

为了解决灰色建模过程中利用残差模型来修正原灰色模型的繁琐工作,提出利用稳健估计理论对灰色建模的数据序列进行分析、筛选,找出数据列中存在的不确定信息,并达到直接建立灰色模型的目的。针对数据中存在不确定信息的实际情况,利用非统计理论对所研究的数据序列进行分析,对不确定信息中是否含有误差有一个确切的结论。进而找到一个比较方便而准确的建立灰色模型的方法。     

基于ANSYS的U29型钢可缩性支架建模及网格划分分析

利用ANSYS合理建立模型及划分网格,将直接影响计算结果的精度,也是充分发挥计算软件数值模拟能力解决实际问题的关键。通过对ANSYS模型建立和网格划分模块的系统分析,结合巷道支护经验,找出了对U29型钢可缩性支架进行模拟计算的方法。为精确计算截面比较复杂、结构比较庞大的可缩性金属支架在各种载荷作用下的结构反应奠定了基础,并指出ANSYS建模和网格划分的一些应用技巧。     

Potential chemical time bombs in the schelde estuary

The Schelde estuary is heavily polluted with many different (micro)pollutants. This results in high concentrations in the abiotic and biotic compartments of the Schelde estuary and in various effects. the present day suboxic and anoxic conditions in the upper estuary are probably responsible for the high distribution coefficients for some trace metals in the lower Schelde estuary (Western Schelde). a future reduction in discharges with a high biological oxygen demand will therefore not only result in higher oxygen concentrations, but probably also in lower distribution coefficients for trace metals in the Western Schelde. Simulations show that lower trace metal distribution coefficients will probably result in higher concentrations of dissolved (bioavailable) trace metals, even with substantially reduced discharge rates, due to the desorption of trace metals from resuspended bottom sediments.     

土壤有机碳时空变化研究进展与展望

土壤有机碳不但是土壤肥力形成、粮食生产和土壤健康的基础,而且在全球碳平衡中起着关键的作用,因此,明晰土壤有机碳时空变化规律对于保障土壤健康和粮食安全、发挥土壤生态系统服务功能和应对气候变化等均具有重要意义。本文首先介绍了土壤有机碳时空变化的主要驱动因素和估算方法,随后分析了全球及国家等相对较大尺度上土壤有机碳时空变化研究的主要进展,最后从土壤有机碳模型结构改进、驱动数据分辨率提升、不确定性量化评估等方面综合分析了未来土壤有机碳时空变化研究需亟待解决的重要科学问题。     

Simulation modelling of potato virus Y spread in relation to initial inoculum and vector activity

Potato virus Y(PVY) is a non-persistent virus that is transmitted by many aphid species and causes significant damage to potato production. We constructed a spatially-explicit model simulating PVY spread in a potato field and used it to investigate possible effects of transmission efficiency, initial inoculum levels, vector behavior, vector abundance, and timing of peak vector activity on PVY incidence at the end of a simulated growing season. Lower PVY incidence in planted seed resulted in lower virus infection at the end of the season. However, when populations of efficient PVY vectors were high, significant PVY spread occurred even when initial virus inoculum was low. Non-colonizing aphids were more important for PVY spread compared to colonizing aphids, particularly at high densities. An early-season peak in the numbers of noncolonizing aphids resulted in the highest number of infected plants in the end of the season, while mid-and late-season peaks caused relatively little virus spread. Our results highlight the importance of integrating different techniques to prevent the number of PVY-infected plants from exceeding economically acceptable levels instead of trying to control aphids within potato fields. Such management plans should be implemented very early in a growing season.     

Geomorphic estimates of the stability of a uranium mill tailings containment cover: Nabarlek,Northern Territory,Australia

The geomorphic stability of the cover (cap) over the pit of Nabarlek Uranium Mine in Arnhem Land, Northern Australia, is important because radon gas and other long-lived radio-nuclides arising from mill tailings must be contained for long periods. The primary agents of denudation in the region's seasonally wet tropical environment of low relief are rainwash, overland flow, rilling and gullying. Other agents of erosion are of less concern, although biogenic agents of erosion (e.g. termites and windthrow) may enhance fluvial activity. A combination of modelling, using the Universal Soil Loss Equation, and analogue estimates of denudation and thresholds of rilling and gullying from areas with similar geology, topography and climate are used to estimate the stability of the Nabarlek cover. Denudation rates are conservatively estimated at less than 100mm ky⁻¹. It is suggested that with some minor design modifications the cover will retain its integrity for several thousand years.