Adapting to climate change: Agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa

The East African region exhibits considerable climatic and topographic variability. Much spatial and temporal variation in the response of different crops to climate change can thus be anticipated. In previous work we showed that a large part of this variation can be explained in terms of temperature and, to a lesser extent, water effects. Here, we summarise simulated yield response in two crops that are widely grown in the region, maize and beans, and investigate how the impacts of climate change might be addressed at two levels: the agricultural system and the household. Regionally, there are substantial between-country and within-system differences in maize and bean production responses projected to 2050. The arid-semiarid mixed crop-livestock systems are projected to see reductions in maize and bean production throughout most of the region to 2050. Yields of these crops in the tropical highland mixed systems are projected to increase, sometimes substantially. The humid-subhumid mixed systems show more varied yield responses through time and across space. Some within-country shifts in cropping away from the arid-semiarid systems to cooler, higher-elevation locations may be possible, but increased regional trade should be able to overcome the country-level production deficits in maize and beans caused by climate change to 2050, all other things being equal. For some places in the tropical highlands, maize and bean yield increases could have beneficial effects on household food security and income levels. In the other mixed systems, moderate yield losses can be expected to be offset by crop breeding and agronomic approaches in the coming decades, while more severe yield losses may necessitate changes in crop types, movement to more livestock-orientated production, or abandonment of cropping altogether. These production responses are indicative only, and their effects will be under-estimated because the methods used here have not accounted for increasing weather variability in the future or changes in the distribution and impacts of biotic and other abiotic stresses. These system-level shifts will take place in a context characterised by high population growth rates; the demand for food is projected to nearly triple by the middle of this century. Systems will have to intensify substantially in response, particularly in the better-endowed mixed systems in the region. For the more marginal areas, the variability in yield response, and the variability in households’ ability to adapt, suggest that, even given the limitations of this analysis, adaptation options need to be assessed at the level of the household and the local community, if research for development is to meet its poverty alleviation and food security targets in the face of global change.     

“植境”及其设计课程教学框架

基于\"境\"理论,提出\"植境\"概念,探讨\"境\"语境下的教学实践。通过阐明\"植境\"基本特性、景观单元类别及适应机制,明确\"植境\"是融合\"人-空间-时间\"的复合整体。进而分析现有植物景观设计教学的整体性思维不足,提出以\"植境\"为纲、\"入境\"为法、以\"空间-氛围-时间\"为核,转变植物景观设计教学思维,构建对接\"境\"理论的\"植境\"设计教学框架,以利于培养学生分析、解决复杂问题的综合能力。     

Molecular characterization of avian polyomavirus isolated from psittacine birds based on the whole genome sequence analysis

Seven avian polyomaviruses (APVs) were isolated from seven psittacine birds of four species. Their whole genome sequences were genetically analyzed. Comparing with the sequence of BFDV1 strain, nucleotide substitutions in the sequences of seven APV isolates were found at 63 loci and a high level of conservation of amino acid sequence in each viral protein (VP1, VP2, VP3, VP4, and t/T antigen) was predicted. An A-to-T nucleotide substitution was observed in non-control region of all seven APV sequences in comparison with BFDV1 strain. Two C-to-T nucleotide substitutions were also detected in non-coding regions of one isolate. A phylogenetic analysis of the whole genome sequences indicated that the sequences from the same species of bird were closely related. APV has been reported to have distinct tropism for cell cultures of various avian species. The present study indicated that a single amino acid substitution at position 221 in VP2 was essential for propagating in chicken embryonic fibroblast culture and this substitution was promoted by propagation on budgerigar embryonic fibroblast culture. For two isolates, three serial amino acids appeared to be deleted in VP4. However, this deletion had little effect on virus propagation.     

Rice reproductive growth duration increased despite of negative impacts of climate warming across China during 1981–2009

Changes in rice phenology during 1981–2009 were investigated using observed phenological data from hundreds of agro-meteorological stations across China. Spatiotemporal changes of rice phenology across China, as well as the relations to temperature, day length and cultivars shifts were analyzed and presented. We found that major rice phenological dates generally advanced while rice growing period changed diversely for different rice cultivation systems in different agro-ecological zones. Length of vegetative growth period (VGP) increased at 59 (67.0%) stations for single-rice, however, decreased at 36 (54.5%) and 35 (51.5%) stations for early-rice, and late-rice, respectively. Length of reproductive growth period (RGP) increased at 71 (70.3%) and 49 (55.7%) stations for single-rice and early-rice, respectively, however, decreased at 46 (54.8%) stations for late-rice. The changes were ascribed to the combined effects of changes in temperature, photoperiod and cultivar thermal characteristics. Increase in temperature had negative impacts on the lengths of VGP and RGP. Day length slightly counterbalanced the roles of temperature in affecting the duration of VGP. Furthermore, we found that during 1981–2009 cultivars with longer growth duration of VGP were adopted for single-rice, but cultivars with shorter growth duration of VGP were adopted for early-rice and late-rice. Cultivars with longer growth durations of RGP were adopted for single-rice and early-rice, as well as late-rice at the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. However, in the southwestern China and southern China, cultivars with shorter or almost same growth duration of RGP were adopted for late rice.     

What is hot in tree rings? The wood density of surviving Douglas-firs to the 2003 drought and heat wave

In a global warming scenario, drought and heat waves like the one that occurred in 2003 in Europe are expected to become more intense and frequent. This extreme climate event strongly affected the hydraulic balance in many forest tree species including Douglas-fir, with symptoms ranging from partial crown necrosis to death. We studied a French Douglas-fir provenance trial, strongly affected by the 2003 drought and heat wave. Using wood X-ray microdensity profiles as a record of cambium response to environmental variations, we compared mean stem density and growth between dead and alive neighbouring trees and several microdensity characters measured over 17 growth rings previous to 2003. Special attention has been given to the sampling layout in order to minimize the micro-environmental effects. At tree level, surviving trees have a significantly higher mean stem density. At tree ring level, they have a significantly higher mean ring density, maximum ring density, latewood density and, to a lesser extent, latewood proportion. No significant difference was found for diameter growth. These results could have direct implications in the way to study and predict possible acclimation and adaptation of forest trees to climate change process. Wood could be used for the selection of genotypes with a desirable plasticity and resistance to drought induced-cavitation.     

从资源分配论生物竞争的存在性

本文从资源分配的角度探讨了对竞争的看法。资源分配的法则是数量与质量权衡,并具有个体大小依赖性。从构件、个体和群落层次上分析了资源配置过程和结果,均表明不存在竞争的行为和动机。还分析了适应概念在解释生命世界现象中的重要性和普遍性。最后,阐明了和谐世界中的生态文化问题。     

Adaptations to overwintering in the earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra: Genetic differences in glucose mobilisation and freeze tolerance

Geographic variation in freeze tolerance, glycogen storage and freeze-induced glucose mobilisation was investigated in the earthworm Dendrobaena octaedra. Specimens from 15 populations collected in Canada, Greenland and Europe were reared in the laboratory in a common-garden experiment to test whether glucose and glycogen concentrations correlated with genetic variation in freeze tolerance among the populations. Populations from Canada, Sweden, Poland and Finland did not differ much in their freeze tolerance and were able to tolerate freezing for 18 d down to at least −14 °C (lowest temperature tested). Specimens collected in a relatively warm climate (Denmark) were the least freeze tolerant, and also had the lowest concentrations of glucose when frozen at −2 °C. However, there was no clear evidence that glucose concentration is a determinant in the degree of freeze tolerance of D. octaedra when considering the whole assemblage of populations. The role of phylogenetic inertia was tested by looking for serial independence and no influence of phylogeny was detected in our findings allowing us to exclude the possibility that phylogenetic relatedness between populations is a major evolutionary factor explaining the observed differences for freeze tolerance and related traits. The size of the glycogen reserve was significantly correlated with the ability to tolerate freezing. Large glycogen reserves may be advantageous in very cold regions in order to maximise cryoprotectant production and/or as a source of energy for the anaerobic metabolism occurring during prolonged freezing.