Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling spatio-temporal dynamics of herbicide resistance

A mathematical model has been developed for the risk assessment of the spread of genes conferring herbicide resistance in plant populations. The model combines an age-and-stage-structured population dynamic model, a population genetic model and a model of spatial spread. This is achieved by embedding a local matrix population model into a cellular automaton model with raster cells as spatial units. The dynamics of each cell is determined by both its local dynamics and the interaction with neighbouring cells. The model is applied to the evaluation of management strategies to delay or even to prevent long-term evolution of resistance in an annual grass weed. The results show that the appearance and spread of resistant genes is a highly non-linear process exhibiting threshold phenomena, which occur for a wide range of parameters. The properties of the seed survival curve constitute the `genetic memory' of the system and thus determine its long-term dynamics. It is possible to delay the evolution of resistance by suspension of treatment, reduction in herbicide application rate and introducing fallow periods. Spatial spread from an infested plot is inhibited by leaving untreated strips between adjacent fields.     

Long-term modelling of weed control strategies: analysis of threshold-based options for weed species with contrasted competitive abilities

A simple life-cycle-based demography model was adapted for two contrasting weed species ( Alopecurus myosuroides and Poa annua ). This model included a seed production function that accounted for population self-regulation through weed:weed interactions. The A. myosuroides version of the model was tested with field data. Long-term simulations of population demography were then performed to investigate the relationship between weed control strategies based on density thresholds and both the frequency of herbicide use and the long-term economic profitability. This study confirms that threshold-based weed management strategies are more cost-effective than spraying every year and may allow important reductions in herbicide use. However, after the first transient years of either systematically spraying or withholding herbicide, the long-term spraying frequency was insensitive to threshold values between 0.01 and 100 plants m⁻². The highest long-term profitability was obtained for the lowest threshold tested, and the profitability decreased rapidly when the threshold was raised above 4–6 and 10–20 plants m⁻² for A. myosuroides and P. annua respectively. The study thus indicates that the exact threshold value is of little importance for the long-term reliance of the system on herbicide, provided that it is reasonably low. For species with low competitive ability, high thresholds may be used in some cropping systems to reduce the spraying frequency for environmental considerations, but those options would also reduce the profitability if no compensatory measures were taken.     

Genetic diversity in populations of the fungi Phaeomoniella chlamydospora and Phaeoacremonium aleophilum on grapevine in France

Isolates of Phaeomoniella chlamydospora ( Phc ) and Phaeoacremonium aleophilum ( Pha ), two haploid, deuteromycetous fungi, were obtained from vines showing symptoms of esca disease in different localities in two French regions, and within a single vineyard in one of these regions. The population genetic structure was determined in both fungi using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis. Populations of Phc showed similar levels of diversity at local and regional levels. The most frequent Phc haplotypes were found in every population, and the frequencies of positive alleles of markers were similar across populations. The hypothesis that recombination had occurred was rejected for the full set of samples, but not for the samples reduced to haplotypes, indicating that Phc may be a recombining species. Different features were identified in Pha populations. First, the southern population of Pha appeared more diverse than the south-western populations. Second, genetic differentiation was identified between Pha populations from southern and south-western regions for several RAPDs. Finally, in the southern population of Pha no evidence for recombination was obtained, even by reducing the sample to haplotypes. Within the single vineyard surveyed, several haplotypes of both fungi were recovered and randomly distributed. Thus different infection events appeared to have occurred on a low spatial scale. Data from this study showed that haplotypes of both fungi were distributed over long distances geographically, and that most of the vineyards surveyed were infested by more than one haplotype of Phc and Pha .     

Landscape patterns as habitat predictors: building and testing models for cavity-nesting birds in the Uinta Mountains of Utah,USA

The ability to predict species occurrences quickly is often crucial for managers and conservation biologists with limited time and funds. We used measured associations with landscape patterns to build accurate predictive habitat models that were quickly and easily applied (i.e., required no additional data collection in the field to make predictions). We used classification trees (a nonparametric alternative to discriminant function analysis, logistic regression, and other generalized linear models) to model nesting habitat of red-naped sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus nuchalis), northern flickers (Colaptes auratus),tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), and mountain chickadees (Parus gambeli) in the Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah, USA. We then tested the predictive capability of the models with independent data collected in the field the following year. The models built for the northern flicker, red-naped sapsucker, and tree swallow were relatively accurate (84%, 80%, and 75% nests correctly classified,respectively)compared to the models for the mountain chickadee (50% nests correctly classified). All four models were more selective than a null model that predicted habitat based solely on a gross association with aspen forests. We conclude that associations with landscape patterns can be used to build relatively accurate, easy to use, predictive models for some species. Our results stress, however, that both selecting the proper scale at which to assess landscape associations and empirically testing the models derived from those associations are crucial for building useful predictive models. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

春麦田除草剂的应用与杂草群落演替

作者采用定点定位试验,对春麦田除草剂应用与杂草群落演替趋势进行研究。结果表明:在杂草群落多样性麦田,小麦连作并分别连续5年施用同一种除草剂,原杂草群落中占优势的靶标杂草得以控制,而非靶标杂草和抗、耐药性杂草因失去竞争和制约对象而猖獗发展,发生量较原来增加几倍至几十倍,并形成优势种群,对小麦造成新的更严重的危害。一种除草剂在同田块连续施用4年,由于杂草群落演替,抗、耐药杂草兴起,除草效果显著下降而失去其使用意义。作者提出除草剂配套使用、轮用、混用等措施,并配合以合理的轮作制度,以减轻杂草群落长期受到单一的定向选择性压力。     

闭锁群体BLUP选择下遗传方差和近交系数的变化

采用计算机随机模拟方法模拟了在一个闭锁群体内连续对单个性状进行 1 5个世代选择的情况。选择过程中世代不重叠 ,每个世代的种畜根据动物模型最佳线性无偏预测 (BLUP)法估计的育种值进行选留 ,并在此基础上系统地比较了不同群体规模、公母比例和性状遗传力对群体遗传方差和近交系数变化的影响。结果表明 ,扩大育种群规模、增加公畜比例以及对低遗传力性状进行选择时 ,群体遗传方差降低的速度和近交系数上升的速度会更慢 ,在长期选择时可望获得更大的持续进展和适宜的近交增量     

利用体外培养法建立饲料营养成分与瘤胃丙酸产量的回归模型

根据美国康乃尔净碳水化合物和蛋白质体系 (CNCPS) ,分析测定了 4类 2 4种饲料的营养成分 ,利用体外批次培养技术测定了它们在体外培养一定时间后的丙酸产量 ,并由此建立了饲料中产丙酸的营养成分和瘤胃丙酸产量的回归方程     

Using traffic flow theory to model traffic mortality in mammals

Traffic has a considerable effect on population and community dynamics through the disruption and fragmentation of habitat and traffic mortality. This paper deals with a systematic way to acquire knowledge about the probabilities of successful road crossing by mammals and what characteristics affect this traversability. We derive a model from traffic flow theory to estimate traffic mortality in mammals related to relevant road, traffic and species characteristics. The probability of successful road crossing is determined by the pavement width of the road, traffic volume, traversing speed of the mammals and their body length. We include the traversability model in a simple two-patch population model to explore the effects of these road, traffic and species characteristics on population dynamics. Analysis of the models show that, for our parameter ranges, traffic volume and traversing speed have the largest effect on traffic mortality. The population size is especially negatively affected when roads have to be crossed during the daily movements. These predictions could be useful to determine the expected effectiveness of mitigating measures relative to the current situation. Mitigating measures might alter the road and traffic characteristics. The effects of these changes on traffic mortality and population dynamics could be analysed by calculating the number of traffic victims before and after the mitigating measures. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seed production of Chenopodium album in competition with field vegetables

Total weed control within a crop is both difficult and expensive to achieve, so that some weeds will often remain to set seed. The seed production resulting from these weeds will ultimately affect the sustainability of the weed control strategy. If too much is allowed to return each season there could be a gradual, but significant, increase in the potential weed flora over a number of seasons. Field trials were carried out in 2000 and 2001 to quantify the potential magnitude of this weed seed return from Chenopodium album L., grown at two planting densities either in pure stands or in competition with one of two crops (cabbage or onion). Crop and weed weights and weed seed production were notably greater in 2001. Both dry weight and seed production of C. album were suppressed by increasing planting density or by the presence of crop, with cabbage having a more suppressive effect. Despite the plasticity in seed production, a linear relationship was demonstrated between log weed seed production and log weed biomass that was robust over a range of competitive situations with onion and cabbage, at different planting densities and in growing seasons. The study also demonstrated that the relationship could be combined with an existing simple competition model to allow the consequences of incomplete weed control to be assessed in terms of potential weed seed return.