Bayesian methods for estimating pathogen prevalence within groups of animals from faecal-pat sampling

Pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter spp. have been implicated in outbreaks of food poisoning in the UK and elsewhere. Domestic animals and wildlife are important reservoirs for both of these agents, and cross-contamination from faeces is believed to be responsible for many human outbreaks. Appropriate parameterisation of quantitative microbial-risk models requires representative data at all levels of the food chain. Our focus in this paper is on the early stages of the food chain-specifically, sampling issues which arise at the farm level. We estimated animal–pathogen prevalence from faecal-pat samples using a Bayesian method which reflected the uncertainties inherent in the animal-level prevalence estimates. (Note that prevalence here refers to the percentage of animals shedding the bacteria of interest). The method offers more flexibility than traditional, classical approaches: it allows the incorporation of prior belief, and permits the computation of a variety of distributional and numerical summaries, analogues of which often are not available through a classical framework. The Bayesian technique is illustrated with a number of examples reflecting the effects of a diversity of assumptions about the underlying processes. The technique appears to be both robust and flexible, and is useful when defecation rates in infected and uninfected groups are unequal, where population size is uncertain, and also where the microbiological-test sensitivity is imperfect. We also investigated the determination of the sample size necessary for determining animal-level prevalence from pat samples to within a pre-specified degree of accuracy.     

Breeding programme for Piétrain pigs in Bavaria with an estimation of genetic trends and effective population size

Population structure, performance testing and breeding scheme of the sire breed Piétrain in Bavaria were analyzed as a basis for further optimization studies of the breeding programme. To evaluate the current breeding programme, genetic trends and effective population size were estimated. Four data sets were used which contained breeding animals born between 1981 and 2005, estimated breeding values of traits in the breeding goal, records from young boars in field test and records from purebred and crossbred progeny on test stations. The population is subdivided in many small herds. That has disadvantages with respect to a uniform breeding goal used across herds and with respect to selection intensity and the avoidance of inbreeding. The idealized selection practice consists of three selection stages. On the first two stages information from half and full sibs on test stations is most important so that the risk of co-selecting related animals is increased. The breeding scheme is a mixture of a half sib design and a progeny testing design, but both have disadvantages. Nevertheless, genetic trends are in the desired directions. To improve accuracy and intensity of selection, only AI-boars should be used instead of natural service sires. Though the effective population size is high, the recent trend of inbreeding shows that the extensive use of popular AI-boars can lead to a rapid increase of inbreeding.     

Effect of extra maternal feed supply in early gestation on sow and piglet performance and production and meat quality of growing/finishing pigs

The influence of differentiated extra maternal feed allowance during early gestation on maternal performance and postnatal development of the progeny from gilts and sows was investigated. Four different feed allowances of the same diet (Control [C], +35% [T35], +70% [T70], +100% [T100]) were assigned to 20 crossbred gilts (Swedish Landrace×Swedish Yorkshire), which continued as sows with the same feed allowance the following parity. The progeny was uniformly raised and slaughtered at a live weight of 110 kg. Additional maternal feed allowance resulted in significantly more weaned piglets per sow but not per gilt. Piglet numbers did not increase from T35 to T70/T100. Piglet birth weight did not increase due to maternal feeding. The intra-litter variation in piglet birth weights was similar between the treatments. Independent of the additional feed allowance, all gilts and sows had similar weights after weaning and had good body condition. The growth rate of progeny from sows was negatively related to maternal feed supply; for progeny from gilts, no clear trend of nutritional influence could be observed. Carcass and technological meat quality was not affected by maternal feeding treatment. Birth weight positively affected later growth performance (daily weight gain), carcass quality (lean meat content, back fat, proportion of muscles in ham/loin), whereas technological meat quality was unaffected.     

家兔发情状态与受胎率和产仔数关系的研究

本文研究了家兔的发情状态与配种后的受胎率,以及产仔数之间的关系。以家兔阴粘膜颜色作为表观指标,将家兔的发情分为５个状态,其相应的阴粘膜颜色分别为：苍白、粉色、红色、大红、黑紫。经促排２号诱发排卵后,人工授精,相应状态下的受胎率为：２９．５％、４２．９％、５６．８％、５３．８％、２５．０％;相应状态下的平均产仔数分别为：５．５４、６．６９、６．６２、７．２１、５．５２。用促排３号处理后,相应状态下的受胎率为：９．０％、４３．２％、５３．２％、７０．０％、２１．７％。结果表明：无论是用促排２号,还是用促排３号处理,当阴粘膜颜色为苍白和黑紫时的受胎率或产仔数,都显著地低于或少于阴粘膜颜色为粉色、红色、大红时的受胎率（Ｐ＜０．０１）或产仔数（Ｐ＜０．０５）。说明,家兔的发情状态与配种后的受胎率和产仔数有密切的相关