Marine capture fisheries in the Arctic: winners or losers under climate change and ocean acidification?

Climate change, ocean acidification (OA) and the subsequent changes in marine productivity may affect fisheries and eventually the whole economy in the Arctic. We analysed how changes in climate and ocean pH under scenarios of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are likely to affect the economics of marine fisheries in the Arctic. We applied a Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) and outputs from four different Earth System Models (ESMs) to project future changes in the distribution and maximum catch potential of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates. We projected that total fisheries revenue in the Arctic region may increase by 39% (14–59%) by 2050 relative to 2000 under the Special Reports on Emission Scenario (SRES) A2. Simultaneously, total fishing costs, fishers’ incomes, household incomes and economy‐wide impacts in the Arctic are also projected to increase. Climate change with OA is expected to reduce the potential increases in catch and the economic indicators studied herein. Although the projections suggest that Arctic countries are likely to be ‘winners’ under climate change in comparison with tropical developing countries, the effects of OA will lower the expected future benefits in the Arctic. The predicted impacts are likely to be conservative as we consider only the direct effects of OA on fishes and calcifiers, of which there are only a few in the Arctic. Results of this study would be useful for designing effective adaptation strategies to climate change and measures to mitigate the potential negative impacts of OA in the Arctic.     

冀中南强筋小麦品种品质性状稳定性差异及地域和气候因子效应

通过多年多地试验研究了河北省中南部优质强筋小麦的品质特点、品质性状稳定性及地域和气候因子的影响。结果表明,参试小麦品种蛋白质含量和稳定时间均达到强筋麦标准,吸水率和湿面筋部分达标,而沉降值均偏低。地点间品质性状稳定性顺序是吸水率>蛋白质含量>湿面筋>沉降值>形成时间和稳定时间。不同品种不同品质性状的稳定性有很大差异,以藁9415是品质性状和品质稳定性较好。蛋白质、湿面筋含量和吸水率随纬度降低而降低,沉降值、形成时间和稳定时间则相反。说明河北南部较中部更适宜强筋小麦种植。开花至成熟期间平均最高气温与形成时间和稳定时间正相关,与蛋白质,沉降值、湿面筋负相关;日照时数和蛋白质含量显著正相关,与形成时间和稳定时间显著负相关;降水量与沉降值显著正相关。因此,灌浆期相对较低气温、较短日照时数和较多降水有利于品质性状的综合提高。沉降值和稳定时间是改善强筋小麦品质的主要限制性状,是育种和栽培上应进一步研究的问题。     

基于Lasso的外商直接投资影响因素研究

在影响外商直接投资的众多因素中,市场规模、基础设施、关税、贸易开放度以及劳动生产率是影响外商直接投资的5个主要因素,其中市场规模的影响远远大于其他因素的影响,同时,把Lasso方法、最小二乘法及逐步回归法进行了比较,从所得结果可以看出,Lasso方法在变量选择方面优于另外两种方法。     

风电项目建设对自然保护区生态影响分析与保护措施——以阳茂仙家垌风电项目为例

阳茂仙家垌风电场项目位于云开山保护区东南边界外1 km范围内,通过进行实地调查,预测与分析风电项目建设对保护区的生态及管理产生的影响,并根据影响分析制定生态保护与恢复措施,以期为风电项目的选址提供借鉴。     

基于高光谱成像技术和力学参数对贡梨冲击损伤的定量研究

为实现准确评估和预测贡梨的冲击损伤,采用波长为397.5~1 014.0 nm的高光谱成像技术与力学参数相结合对贡梨的冲击损伤进行定量研究。利用基于单摆原理的碰撞装置以及智能数据采集系统获得峰值力、平均接触力、损伤面积和平均压强等力学参数,并对力学参数进行统计分析。利用高光谱成像系统获得损伤贡梨的光谱数据。使用Gap-segment求导、SG求导和基线校准(Baseline)3种光谱预处理方法对原始光谱进行预处理,将光谱数据与力学参数相结合分别建立偏最小二乘回归(Partial least squares regression,PLSR)和主成分回归(Principal component regression,PCR)模型。基于基线校准(Baseline)预处理方法,采用竞争性自适应重加权(Competitive adaptive reweighting sampling,CARS)和无信息变量消除(Uninformative variable elimination,UVE)2种算法进行特征波长的选取,将选取的特征波长作为输入变量并结合力学参数建立PLSR模型。力学参数统计分析和建模的结果表明:1)力学参数在一定程度上可以表征贡梨冲击损伤程度。力学参数的平均值随损伤程度的增加而增大,峰值力平均值从138.40 N增大至335.86 N;平均接触力平均值从77.13 N增大至188.20 N;损伤面积平均值从208.07 mm²增大至544.42 mm²;平均压强平均值从0.34 MPa增大至0.42 MPa。2)Baseline-CARS-PLSR模型对力学参数的预测效果最优,其峰值力、平均接触力、损伤面积和平均压强的预测集相关系数(R_P)和预测集均方根误差(RMSEP)分别为0.892和31.527 N、0.883和18.861 N、0.895和54.411 mm²、0.661和0.045 MPa。通过高光谱成像技术与力学参数相结合对贡梨冲击损伤进行定量预测具有一定的可行性,可为贡梨的品质分选及包装方面提供理论支持。     

Long-term effects of N fertilization on cropping and growth of olive trees and on N accumulation in soil profile

Two experiments were conducted for 13 years in two olive groves of southern Spain to study the long-term effect of nitrogen (N) fertilization on trees and soil. In the first experiment, 12-year-old ‘Picual’ olive trees were arranged in a split plot design with method of N application (soil versus a 50% soil:50% foliar combination) as the whole plot factor, and amount of N applied annually (0, 0.12, 0.25, 0.5 or 1.0 kg N tree⁻¹) as the subplot factor. In the second experiment, N application to 50-year-old ‘Picual’ trees was based on the previous season's leaf N concentration. Urea was the source of N in both experiments. During the last 4 years, soil samples were taken at 0–20, 20–40, 40–60, 60–80, and 80–100 cm depth to evaluate the effect of N application on soil eutrophication. Fertilization with N had no significant effects on yield, fruit characteristics, and growth of olive trees for the 13 years of study, even when leaf N concentration increased with the amount of fertilizer N applied. Combining soil and foliar application may reduce the amount of fertilizer N necessary to correct a possible N deficiency because our experiments showed this practice to be more effective in increasing leaf N that applying N only to the soil. Our results question the established deficiency threshold of 1.4% of N in dried leaf because no reduction in yield or growth was observed for lower concentrations. However, leaf N concentration did not drop below 1.2% after 13 years with no N application, probably because of N inputs from rainfall and the mineralization of organic N. Whereas under natural conditions of the non-fertilized treatments NH₄⁺–N represented the dominant fraction of mineral N in soil, accumulation of high amounts of NO₃⁻–N in the soil profile occurred in the fertilized plots, which represents a high risk of N leaching from soil. All these results suggest that annual applications of fertilizer N are unnecessary to maintain high productivity and growth in olive. Applying N only when the previous season's leaf analysis indicates that leaf N concentration is below the deficiency threshold, is thus a recommended practice to optimize N fertilization in olive orchards and to reduce N losses by leaching.     

制药行业水污染环境影响评价及防治措施分析

根据制药行业不同生产类别的生产特点,综合分析了各制药企业水污染物排放因子、污水排放节点、排放特征,并针对性地提出了污水防治措施和环评中需注意的问题,为制药行业水污染环境影响评价提供参考。     

不同种植方式对玉米产量及相关性状的影响

对三种不同种植方式下3个不同类型玉米品种的产量及相关性状进行比较分析,以摸索适合不同类型玉米品种种植方式的轻简栽培技术。试验结果表明,品种与种植方式存在互作效应,穴双株种植最省时节本,适合于中穗型及半紧凑型玉米品种。     

Genetic diversity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mansonia altissima</Emphasis> A. Chev. under different regimes of human impact in the Akure Forest Reserve,Nigeria

Mansonia altissima is an important West African timber tree species.For the purpose of examining the effect of human impact on its genetic diversity, genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure of the species under different regimes of human impact were investigated in the Akure Forest Reserve, Nigeria, using 504 amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers.The results indicate a very low genetic diversity in M.altissima within the forest reserve (He=0.045; PPL=16.75%; Br=1.162).The highest genetic diversity was observed in the primary forest (He=0.062; PPL=21.00%; Br=1.204), with the lowest genetic diversity in the isolated forest patch (He=0.032; PPL=9.00%; Br=1.089).A significant and pronounced spatial genetic structure was found in the logged forest and in the isolated forest patch.In contrast, the primary forest exhibited very weak spatial genetic structuring.As expected, no spatial genetic structure was found in the planted stands of M.altissima.From a conservation point of view, our results suggest that genetic diversity of M.altissima is at risk in the forest reserve.The scale of human impact in the study area could pose a serious threat to the maintenance of genetic diversity of the species.These results would offer practical applications in the conservation of other tropical tree species.     

环境影响评价在林业发展中的作用

阐述环境影响评价在林业发展中的作用,包括林业项目分析、环境现状评价、环境预测评价、环境风险评价、环境经济损益评价等方面内容,指出各项评价体系在维持林业可持续发展中的作用与重要性,以为林业项目环境影响评价提供理论与方法。