Analysis of a Long-term Experiment with Repeated-measurement Models

Long‐term experiments are a classical case of repeated measurements. Traits are measured on the same experimental unit over many years so that correlations arise between the observations made on the same plot in consecutive years. This paper describes the analysis of a three‐crop‐rotation long‐term experiment. We analysed the yields of the crops and the organic carbon content in the topsoil over 30 consecutive years. Several variance–covariance approaches are discussed and the trait‐specific best fit is interpreted. Mixed models are used to describe the structure of the experiment. Both yields and soil organic carbon show a more or less pronounced variance heterogeneity. Especially for yields, the heterogeneity of cycles and years is dominant. The consideration of correlations results in a better model fit in all cases.     

浅谈建立郑州市道路路面养护管理系统

路面管理系统是通过对路面运行状况、使用性能、使用周期、进行对比、分析，预测路面管理的最佳养护预算投资并在最佳养护经济投资条件等各种因素限制下，寻求道路养护管理最佳战略决策。     

一类挖坑机械钻头横向振动系统的最优控制问题

建立了一类挖坑机械钻头横向振动系统的数学模型,并以阻尼函数作为控制变量,研究了该系统的最优控制问题,得出了两个定理。     

岷江上游乡村社区贫困成因及扶贫模式初探——以四川黑水国家扶贫开发重点县为例

农村发展包括乡村社区发展和农户发展两个方面 ,二者不能偏废。以岷江上游国家扶贫开发重点县———黑水为例 ,探讨乡村社区贫困成因及扶贫模式。社区贫困是多种因素长期综合作用的结果 ,包括自然环境条件、传统习俗与贫困文化结合、道路交通贫乏、森林资源利用政策以及落后守旧的农业生产技术和手段。乡村社区扶贫不同于区域扶贫 ,应以新村建设和易地迁建为主 ,辅以劳务输出、旅游开发和教育扶持。     

胶合板厂生产规划模型与运用

本文根据胶合板厂实际情况，建立了杨木胶合板厂生产规划模型。该模型考虑各主要设备工段、产品组合、产品混合、产品价格、流动资金、原材料供应以及市场约束等问题。本模型能够满足市场竞争，获取最佳利润，同时还能解决胶合板厂“三板”（表、背、芯单板）不平衡问题。     

Spring invasion of Heterodera schachtii in sugarbeet; a simulation study

A simulation model was developed for the spring invasion of the beet cyst nematode,Heterodera schachtii Schmidt, into sugarbeet roots, according to the state variable approach. This model describes the processes of egghatch, emergence of second stage larvae from cysts, migration to roots and penetration into roots quantitatively, using published data.In 1983 a field experiment was conducted to test this model.H. schachtii cysts were introduced at depths 6–29 cm in PVC-cylinders, buried in the soil. The rooting depth of sugarbeet seedlings, growing in these cylinders, was limited to 5 cm by 50 m mesh nylon gauze. Every 10 days the second stage larvae, which had penetrated into the roots of these seedlings were counted. After 50 days, about 40% of the eggs had hatched. More than 20% of the emerged larvae penetrated if the cysts had been buried undeeply, and only 4% if the cysts had been buried at 29 cm depth.The model predicted the course of penetration into the root during the first 40 days with reasonable accuracy (r²=0.79), but in the 5th period of 10 days the model made an overestimation of more than 100%. Egghatch after 50 days was correctly simulated. The differences in penetration into the root between the model and the experiment might result from an oversimplified simulation of the penetration success or the neglection of mortality of second stage larvae. Detailed experiments should be done to provide better parameters for these factors.Samenvatting Volgens de toestandsvariabele-benadering werd een simulatiemodel ontwikkeld van de voorjaarspenetratie van het bietecystenaaltje. Het model beschrijft aan de hand van literatuurgegevens het uikomen van de eieren, het verlaten van de cyst door de larven, de migratie naar en de penetratie in de wortel.In 1983 werd een veldproef uitgevoerd om het model te toetsen. Cysten vanH. schachtii werden op 5 dieptes tussen 6 en 29 cm ingegraven in PVC-cylinders, welke waren verzonken in de bodem. De bewortelingsdiepte van de suikerbiete-zaailingen die hierin groeiden werd beperkt tot 5 cm door nylon gaas van 50 m maaswijdte. Elke 10 dagen werden de larven geteld die in de wortels van deze plantjes waren gepenetreerd. Na 50 dagen was 40% van de eieren uitgekomen. Meer dan 20% van de gelokte larven penetreerden als de cysten ondiep waren ingegraven, en slechts 4% als de cysten op 29 cm diepte waren ingegraven.Gedurende de eerste 40 dagen werd het verloop van de penetratie in de wortel met redelijke nauwkeurigheid door het model voorspeld (r²=0.79). In de 5e periode van 10 dagen maakte het model echter een overschatting van meer dan 100%. Het uitkomen van de eieren werd correct gesimuleerd. De verschillen in penetratie tussen het model en de proef zouden het gevolg kunnen zijn van een oververeenvoudigde simulatie van het penetratiesucces of van het verwaarlozen van de mortaliteit van de migrerende larven. Betere gegevens hierover zullen moeten komen uit detailproeven.     

自由放养下绵羊的营养参数

根据绵羊的营养参数和饲养标准,结合日增重水平,计算了不同日增重水平对应的体重月平均动态及其所对应的粗蛋白日需要量和代谢能日需要量。不同日增重水平,达到生长期望所需要的日数不同,日增重水平越高,达到生长期望总所需要的粗蛋白和代谢能越少,但月平均的日需要量越多。自由放养的东北细毛羊当年生羔羊的日增重水平仅相当于舍饲饲养日增重的100g水平,根据代谢能计算,年总需干草340kg,可以作为计算载畜量的基本参数。自由放养情况下,即使能量满足需要,粗蛋白也短缺。当年生羔羊日增重在150￣200g,9￣10月龄内体重达到46￣50kg是北方草地家畜生产的理想目标,通过补饲可以实现。     

新疆退牧还草工程建设与管理的探讨

草地是发展畜牧业的重要基础,退牧还草工程是恢复、更新天然草地和保护生态环境的重要手段。本文就新疆实施退牧还草工程中所出现的一些问题进行了探讨。     

温室网纹甜瓜发育模拟模型研究

 通过研究甜瓜的发育生理生态过程, 建立了以生理发育时间为基础的温室甜瓜发育过程模拟模型, 并利用不同播期、地点和品种的试验资料对模型进行了检验。结果表明, 模型对发芽期、幼苗期、伸蔓期、开花期、结果期等各生育期及全生育期的模拟预测值与实际观测值的符合度较好, 其回归估计标准误差(RMSE) 分别为1、3、2.2、1.8、1.1、2.6 d。     

Breeding objectives for beef cattle used in different production systems: 2. Model application to production systems with the Charolais breed

A general bio-economic model for beef cattle production was used to define breeding objectives for Charolais cattle to be utilized in a variety of linked production systems. Economic weights were calculated for 16 traits (some with both direct and maternal components) in three production systems (pure-breeding and terminal crossing with beef or dairy cows) and two marketing strategies (sale or fattening of weaned surplus calves). Economic weights for the total breeding objective were calculated as weighted averages, where weights were numbers of cows expected to be mated with Charolais bulls in each production system and marketing strategy. Results suggest that the direct component of calving performance and cow longevity were of primary economic importance in all systems. Conception rate of cows and weaning weight reached about 50% of the standardized economic weight of calving performance in purebred systems with sale of weaned calves, whereas in purebred systems with fattening the economic importance of the direct component of cow conception rate, losses at calving, mature weight of cows, weaning weight, and fattening traits were of equal importance (each approximately about 20% that of calving performance). In terminal crossing systems, weaning weight was important when calves were sold at weaning, and fattening traits were important for systems selling fattened animals. The bio-economic model performed well under the conditions of this demonstration and could easily be customized for other applications.