中国粮食进口安全综合评价研究——基于超效率DEA模型

在对粮食及粮食进口安全内涵加以界定的基础上,从粮食数量、粮食质量、粮食价格、粮食贸易、国家经济、生态环境6个方面分析中国粮食进口安全的影响因素,基于超效率DEA模型构建中国粮食进口安全评价模型。对1992—2015年中国粮食进口安全状况进行评价,结果表明,1992—2015年中国粮食进口处于安全状态,粮食进口对我国粮食价格安全和生态安全的影响程度较小,对数量安全、质量安全、贸易安全和经济安全的影响程度较大。     

Acoustic evaluation of the vertical distribution of dwarf ayu Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis in Lake Biwa

SUMMARY: The vertical distribution of dwarf ayu Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis in the pelagic waters of Lake Biwa was evaluated from June to September in 1995–97 from eight acoustic surveys using a quantitative echosounder. In each survey, echoes from a depth range of 3 m to the sea bottom were collected at a station every 2.7 s for 24 h together with measurements of vertical profiles of water temperature and chlorophyll-a. The ayu's echoes were identified using an underwater video camera. The ayu were observed near the maximum chlorophyll-a depth and above the thermocline. Their density was highest at depths of 4–11 m with 2–4 individuals/m ³ and was almost zero below 20 m. Echo signs were recorded as having a frequent duration of more than 1 h at night, whereas were of a shorter duration in the day. The fish stay in the epilimnion during the day without any clear vertical migration, but are distributed more uniformly at night. The advantages of remaining in the epilimnion are discussed in terms of food availability and predator avoidance.     

基于模糊建模的混炼胶粘度测量

提出了一种在线测量混炼胶粘度的新方法．该方法以模糊建模技术为基础，综合考虑混炼过程各因素对胶料粘度的影响，建立起胶料粘度的在线测量模型．在模糊建模中，采用T-S模型描述胶料粘度变化的非线性过程，提出了一种基于相似性判别的模糊聚类算法以自动确定合适的聚类组数目，并用实数编码的遗传算法优化全局参数，从而获得了规则简化的、具有较高精度的模糊模型．根据此方法，设计了测量装置，并进行了现场试验．试验结果表明模糊模型输出与实验室测量值基本一致，平均误差较低且最大误差未超过1门尼．该方法较大地提高了橡胶混炼的生产效率，为粘度最优控制奠定了基础．     

运用模糊数学和灰色系统理论分析评价夏播花生区试品种

运用模糊数学和灰色系统理论，对2007年河南省夏播花生区试品种进行了多因素综合评价和分析，结果表明：周花4号评价指标是0．7089，综合表现最优；其次是W9847—1—3—4—1，其综合评价指标是0．6352；豫花6号评价指标是0．3630，综合表现最差。此结果与试验地实际表现基本相一致。     

沙黄松选择增益结构模式初步研究

采用沙黄松天然林自由授粉家系７年生树干材积的材料，分析了联合选择遗传增益结构模式。结果表明：亚群体间存在极显著差异，亚群体内家系间差异不显著；联合选择增益结构模式为亚群体间７２．４４％、亚群体内家系间３．５５％、单株间２４．０１％。     

祁连山水源涵养林综合效能的计量研究

以马克思级差地租理论,建立了祁连山水源涵养林综合效能的评价模型:E=E_d+E_e+E_s;以E与生产投资I的比值为计量水源林的效能指数T,T=E/I。并以祁连山寺大隆森林生态定位研究站实测资料和社会调查数据为计量评价参数,确定其经济评价指标体系和计量系统。结果表明:祁连山水源涵养林综合效能指标为11.93;其中生态效能和社会效能分别是直接经济效能的4.51倍和6.05倍。说明祁连山水源涵养林现行的保护、发展和综合利用的经营方针是正确的。建议河西各受益部门应按水资源效能总收入的0.5％缴作水源林再生产费,以确保国民经济建设的长远发展。     

金属热防护系统多层隔热材料的传热分析及参数优化

采用能量平衡方程和离散坐标法近似地建立了金属热防护系统多层隔热材料的一维稳态传热的数学模型，并利用遗传算法和纤维隔热材料的有效导热系数试验数据求解传热反问题，从而得到了模型中的纤维隔热材料的辐射衰减系数、反照率和隔热屏表面辐射发射系数。最后，由实验测得了多层隔热材料的有效导热系数，验证了采用优化参数后，多层隔热材料的传热模型的正确性。     

不确定度评定方法在汽车事故再现中的应用

介绍了不确定度理论及其评定方法，结合车辆碰撞事故的具体特点，给出了基于能量守恒的车速计算表达式．通过选择适当的输入参数作为不确定因子，分别计算各分量等效速度标准不确定度．考虑不确定度累积和传播，得到车速输出结果的合成标准不确定度和展伸不确定度，以此检验事故再现结果的准确程度．通过具体事故案例的分析计算和计算机检验，验证该方法的适用性．     

模糊评分法在高羊茅品种综合评价中的应用

1999--2001年对引进和培育的高羊茅新品种(系)在喀斯特生态区进行品种比较试验。观测记裁各参试品种的性状表现，对春、夏、秋、冬4个季节的观测结果，用模糊评分法Ⅲ进行分析比较，并按综合评价值的大小排序a结果高羊茅“98--1”的综合评价值最大，排第一名，依次是猎狗5号、矮星2号、凌志(对照)，其余参试品种排名次后。认为用模糊评分法对高羊茅品种进行分析评价是可行的。     

Genetic diversity of herbicide-resistant and -susceptible Avena fatua populations in North Dakota and Minnesota

Genetic diversity within and among 20 herbicide-resistant (HR) and 16 herbicide-susceptible (HS) Avena fatua multi-field populations was determined using 82 polymorphic loci resulting from two intersimple sequence repeat (ISSR) primers and one long-primer random amplified polymorphic DNA (LP-RAPD) primer. Collections from the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota, sampled in 1964 and 2000, represented A. fatua populations before and after intensive exposure to herbicides. A 1995 collection from south-west North Dakota represented A. fatua exposed to low herbicide selection. Despite differences in years of herbicide exposure among collections, both HR and HS populations from every collection maintained nearly similar levels of ISSR and RAPD diversity. Genetic differentiation among populations (G_ST) varied from 11% to 13% among HR populations and from 9% to 16% among HS populations, indicating that 84–91% of total variation remained within HS or within HR populations. Minimal difference in gene diversity between HR and HS is consistent with multiple origins of resistance, where HR A. fatua most likely evolved from diverse founding individuals.