沈阳市降水概率预报模式研究

利用日本数值天气预报产品和地面天气图，集成多种统计学方法对沈阳市降水概率进行预报，经专家订正后对社会发布。本预报模式避免了单一统计学方法的局限性，并且实现了历史因子的自动追加，能够反映最新的天气信息。经在沈阳市气象台一年的试预报，根据预报结果计算得半贝里尔得分B=0．065；Bias得分为Bias=2％；预报技巧得分Bs=80．8％。同时准确率明显高于日本数值预报结果。     

异步电机效率测试误差的分析计算

用间接测量法分析了异步电动机效率测试的随机误差规律,研究了效率测试误差区域的计算方法,并作了实测计算例证。     

玉米弯孢菌叶斑病侵染概率测定

试验采用人工接种方法，初步测定了室内和田间条件下玉米不同生育期的病害侵染概率。结果表明，玉米弯孢菌侵染概率界于0.0101-0.2628之间，其中玉米拔节期室内离体叶保湿接种侵染概率平均值为0．1627，而玉米拔节期田间雨天 接种侵染概率平均值为0．1543；玉米开花期室内离体叶保湿接种侵染概率平均值为0．2628；而玉米开花期田间干旱条件下接种，侵染概率平均值仅为0.0101。玉米在开花期比拔节期抗病性差，同时湿度是影响侵染概率高低的主要因素。试验为玉米弯孢菌叶斑病流行模型的组建提供了理论依据。     

证据理论及其在评估中的应用

针对新开设课程的课时设置问题,鉴于专家评估法存在的不确定性现象,采用D-S证据理论融合不确定性信息的方法,将每位专家的意见综合为专家组的一致意见,使评估结果更为合理,并为其它课程的课时设置提供借鉴.     

Determinants of bird community composition on patches in the suburbs of Paris, France

The ecological processes responsible for the spatial assemblages of breeding bird communities in urban landscapes are more and more investigated. Indeed, understanding these processes is imperative to plan relevant management policies. We investigated breeding bird communities on 67 patches in the suburbs of Paris, France. We examined the role of patch characteristics and geographic distance between patches in determining similarity between bird assemblages. To do this, we proposed a new SØrensen similarity index based on estimators of change in community composition taking into account the detection probability of species. The patch occupancy by sedentary and migratory species was also estimated to compare their sensitivity to urbanization. Patches close to each other supported more similar bird assemblages, suggesting an effect of the spatial distribution of patches on bird dispersal and a posteriori on local community composition. Accounting for spatial location of patches, bird assemblage similarity was related to the similarity of the surrounding level of urbanization but not to the similarity of patch size or to the similarity of patch vegetation. The mean estimated occupancy rate of sedentary species was higher than that of migratory species in the whole study area. While sedentary species occupied patches surrounded by both moderate and high levels of urbanization, migratory ones primarily occupied patches surrounded by moderate levels of urbanization. Human choices in degrees, styles, and extent of urbanization, including designation and design of patches within an urban matrix, affect the composition of local bird communities.     

四种中药对结肠小袋虫半数致死浓度的测定

利用机率单位法测定了常山、五倍子、乌梅和二花水提取物对结肠小袋虫的半数致死浓度.结果表明,常山、五倍子、乌梅和二花抗结肠小袋虫2h半数致死浓度(LC50)分别是13.40、12.22、19.02、43.34g/L;6 h的LC50分别是12.80、5.824、7.619、23.32 g/L;12 h的LC50分别是8....     

DRIS理论缺陷与方法重建

 经分析DRIS存在两类理论缺陷:两正态分布的营养元素的比值分布为正偏的非常态;DRIS在营养元素等比不等量变化时存在诊断盲区。依据多维正态分布的二次型理论,以及等概率平衡观点,建立优于DRIS,以及与临界值诊断形式统一的“平衡态诊断施肥综合法”BDRIS。当营养元素相关矩阵R=I(单位矩阵),即不考虑元素颉颃作用时,BDRIS简化为临界值诊断。同时,还提供了SAS语言编写的诊断程序。     

地表沉陷预测评价模式的灵敏度分析

针对矿区地表沉陷预测评价,以缓倾斜中硬煤层为例分析了概率积分法模式的稳定性。该模型有较好的稳定性,用于缓倾斜煤层的地表沉陷预测,可以满足预测的精度要求。在煤层的倾角、厚度、埋深及综合评价系数中,以综合评价系数的灵敏度最大,是主要控制参数。     

潋水河流域生态修复过程中土壤速效钾的时空变异

采用基于GIS普通克里格法和概率克里格法分析江西潋水河流域土壤速效钾含量的时空变异特征。结果表明,潋水河流域样点间表层(0～30cm)土壤速效钾平均含量由1981年的(134 8±89 7)mg/kg降低到2002年的(131 9±97 6)mg/kg,平均降低了2 15%。尽管经过近21年的生态修复,样点间土壤速效钾平均含量总体上下降不多,但因土地利用和水土流失修复工程实施的差异,占流域面积60 63%的土壤速效钾含量减少,仅占39 37%的土壤速效钾含量增加。土壤速效钾含量分级统计表明,1981年速效钾含量水平在50～100mg/kg,100～150mg/kg,150～200mg/kg和>200mg/kg的土壤分别占流域面积的10 35%,75 31%,11 78%和2 56%,而2002年则相应为30 75%,49 31%,16 60%和3 31%。该流域土壤速效钾在≤100mg/kg,≤120mg/kg和>150mg/kg含量水平下的几何平均概率分别由1981年的0 453,0 566和0 327变为2002年的0 523,0 611和0 292。从贮量变化上看,21年间潋水河流域内表层土壤速效钾贮量从1981年的2 48×104t变为2002年的2 30×104t,下降了1875 35t。     

Comparison of breeding bird and vegetation communities in primary and secondary forests of Great Smoky Mountains National Park

We compared breeding bird communities and vegetation characteristics at paired point locations in primary (undisturbed) and mature secondary forest (70-100 years old) sites in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA to understand how sites logged prior to creation of the park compare to undisturbed sites following 70 years of protection from human disturbance. We found that bird and vegetation communities are currently similar, but retain some differences in species composition. Rank abundance curves for primary and secondary forest bird communities showed very similar patterns of species dominance. Species composition was also similar on the two sites which shared 24 of the 25 most frequently recorded species. Nonetheless, comparisons of density estimates derived from distance sampling showed three bird species were more abundant on primary forest sites and that one bird species was significantly more abundant on secondary forest sites. Notably, comparisons based on raw counts (unadjusted for potential differences in detectability) produced somewhat different results. Analyses of vegetation samples for the paired sites also showed relative similarity, but with some differences between primary and secondary forests. Primary forest sites had more large trees (trees greater than 50 cm diameter at breast height) and late successional species. Primary forest sites had a denser tall shrub layer while secondary forest sites had a denser canopy layer. Nonetheless, tree species richness, basal area of live trees and number of standing snags did not differ between primary and secondary forest sites. Results indicate that breeding bird communities on sites within the park that were logged commercially 70 years ago are currently quite similar to bird communities on sites with no history of human disturbance. Similarities between the bird communities on previously disturbed and undisturbed sites in Great Smoky Mountains National Park may exceed those on more fragmented landscapes because large patches of primary forest, adjacent to commercially logged sites, remained in the park when it was established in 1935. These patches of primary forest may have served as source areas for commercially logged sites.