Fire-induced changes in northern Patagonian landscapes

In northern Patagonia, Argentina we quantify changes in fire frequency along a gradient from mesic Nothofagus dombeyi forest to xeric woodlands of Austrocedrus chilensis at the steppe ecotone, and we examine patterns of vegetation change coincident with the changes in fire regimes across a range of spatial scales. At a regional scale changes in land cover types are documented by comparing 1:250000 scale cover type maps from 1913 and 1985. Changes in landscape structure are analyzed by comparing vegetation patterns on 1:24000 scale aerial photographs taken in 1940 and 1970. Fire frequency peaked in the late nineteenth-century due to widespread burning and clearing of forests by European settlers late in the century. Subsequently, fire frequency declined dramatically about 1910 due to the cessation of intentional fires and has remained low due to increasingly effective fire exclusion. At a regional scale there has been a dramatic increase during the twentieth century in the proportion of forest cover relative to areas mapped as recent burns or shrublands in 1913. Remnant forest patches that survived the widespread late-nineteenth century burning have coalesced to form more continuous forest covers, and formerly continuous areas of shrublands have become dissected by forest. Under reduced fire frequency there has been a shift in dominance from short-lived resprouting species (mostly shrubs) towards longer-lived species and obligate seed-dispersers such as Austrocedrus chilensis and Nothofagus dombeyi. Due to limited seed dispersal of these tree species, the spatial configuration of remnant forest patches plays a key role in subsequent changes in landscape pattern.     

Evaluation of a Competitive Exclusion Culture and Megan Vac 1 on Salmonella Typhimurium Colonization in Neonatal Broiler Chickens

The present study was designed to evaluate the effect of individual or simultaneous application of 2 products, a competitive exclusion culture (CEC) or Megan Vac 1 (MV), for bioefficacy in reducing Salmonella Typhimurium (ST) cecal colonization in broiler chicks following experimental challenge. In experiment 1, CEC and MV were applied to day-of-hatch broiler chicks, and chicks were experimentally challenged with ST approximately 48 h later. In control chicks, ST was recovered at a level of 3.84 log₁₀ cfu/g following direct plating of cecal contents, and 12 of 19 (63.15%) cultured individual ceca were positive following selective enrichment. In chicks receiving CEC by spray application on day of hatch, a numerical reduction in ST recovered from cecal contents (2.63 log₁₀ cfu/g) and a significant reduction (P < 0.05) in recovery of ST from cultured ceca following selective enrichment (4 of 18, or 22.2%) was observed when compared with controls. Significant reductions in ST cecal colonization in chicks treated with MV alone were not observed in experiment 1. In experiment 2, chicks received day-of-hatch spray application of CEC alone, MV alone, or CEC and MV as a combined application immediately prior to or within 24 h of chick placement. When chicks were experimentally challenged with ST 48 h posthatch, significant reductions (P < 0.05) in cecal colonization by ST were observed with each experimental group when compared with nontreated controls. These data suggest that both commercially available products, alone or in combination, are efficacious in reducing cecal colonization in broiler chicks challenged with ST.     

Prediction of multinomial probability of land use change using a bisection decomposition and logistic regression

Land use change is an important research area in landscape ecology and urban development. Prediction of land use change (urban development) provides critical information for making the right policies and management plans in order to maintain and improve ecosystem and city functions. Logistic regression is a widely used method to predict binomial probabilities of land use change when just two responses (change and no-change) are considered. However, in practice, more than two types of change are encountered and multinomial probabilities are therefore needed. The existing methods for predicting multinomial probabilities have limits in building multinomial probability models and are often based on improper assumptions. This is due to the lack of proper methodology and inadequate software. In this study, a procedure has been developed for building models to predict the multinomial probabilities of land use change and urban development. The foundation of this procedure consists of a special bisection decomposition system for the decomposition of multiple-class systems to bi-class systems, conditional probability inference, and logistic regression for binomial probability models. A case study of urban development has been conducted to evaluate this procedure. The evaluation results demonstrated that different samples and bisection decomposition systems led to very similar quality and performance in the developed multinomial probability models, which indicates the high stability of the proposed procedure for this case study.     

试论卡尔纳普的真理标准

卡尔纳普主张从哲学中清除形而上学。他拒斥行而上学．对综合命题提出了确证代替证实的标准，后来走向概率研究，为现代归纳逻辑发展开辟了新方向；对于分析命题则从句法分析到语义分析，为语言哲学和分析哲学作出了贡献。然而他主张的物理主义却并未成为现实。     

L—C经典破产模型的推广及应用

在L—C破产模型的基础上，建立了多险种破产模型，扩展了应用范围，提出了保证破产概率不大于α时初始资本u的一个很好的分配方案．     

封育年限对典型草原大针茅无性系构件组成与生长的影响

研究不同封育年限对黄土高原大针茅(Stipa grandis)无性系构件结构组成和生长的影响,可为阐明无性系构件组成和资源分配提供一定基础。在黄土高原典型草原选取不同封育年限区(10和20年)和放牧地(对照)作为试验样地,采用整个无性系完整挖掘的方法进行大针茅无性系构件特征的研究。结果表明：1)与放牧相比,封育10年显著增加了大针茅无性系丛径、生殖枝高度和花序高度(P < 0.05),而封育20年则显著提高了大针茅无性系丛径、总枝数、生殖枝数、营养枝数、分蘖芽数、生殖枝高度、花序高度、地上总生物量、营养枝生物量和花序生物量(P < 0.05)。封育降低了大针茅生殖枝数、生殖枝高度、花序高度、地上总生物量、生殖枝生物量和花序生物量的变异系数。2)随封育年限增加,营养枝生物量比例明显提高,生殖枝生物量比例下降,但花序生物量比例基本不变。3)封育措施显著提高了营养株单株生物量(P < 0.05),但生殖株单株生物量和全体分枝单株生物量与放牧处理差异不显著(P > 0.05)。4)大针茅丛径与地上总生物量、生殖枝数、生殖枝生物量、花序生物量呈极显著正相关关系(P < 0.001),与营养枝生物量呈极显著正相关关系(P < 0.01),与总枝数呈显著正相关关系(P < 0.05)。而地上总生物量与生殖枝数、营养枝数、总枝数、营养枝生物量呈极显著正相关关系(P < 0.001),与分蘖芽数、生殖枝生物量和花序生物量呈极显著正相关关系(P < 0.01)。分蘖芽数与营养枝数、总枝数、营养枝生物量呈极显著正相关关系(P < 0.001),与地上总生物量呈极显著正相关关系(P < 0.01)。综上所述,短期封育提高了大针茅的生殖分配,使大针茅迅速成为群落优势种,而长期封育使大针茅更依靠无性繁殖进行种群更新。     

A robust set of black walnut microsatellites for parentage and clonal identification

We describe the development of a robust and powerful suite of 12 microsatellite marker loci for use in genetic investigations of black walnut and related species. These 12 loci were chosen from a set of 17 candidate loci used to genotype 222 trees sampled from a 38-year-old black walnut progeny test. The 222 genotypes represent a sampling from the broad geographic distribution of the species. Analysis of the samples using the 12 loci revealed an average expected heterozygosity of 0.83, a combined probability of identity of 3×10⁻¹⁹, and a combined probability of exclusion for paternity analysis of >0.999. The 222 genotyped trees from the progeny test comprised 39 open-pollinated families, 29 of which (having at least five sampled progeny) were used to estimate the outcrossing rate for the progeny trial. The same 29 families were used to construct a Neighbor-Joining dendrogram based upon allele sharing between individuals. The multilocus estimate of the outcrossing rate was 100% (standard error of zero), higher than the 90% level found in previous studies at the embryo stage, suggesting that both artificial and natural selection against selfs may have occurred over the 38-year lifespan of the progeny trial. In the Neighbor-Joining dendrogram, the majority of the putative siblings grouped together in 21 out of the 29 families, showing that the microsatellites were able to discern most of the family structure in the dataset. Our results indicate that errors were sometimes committed during the establishment of the progeny test. This set of microsatellite loci clearly provides a powerful tool for future applications in black walnut.     

Economic evaluation of forest drainage and fertilization in northern Ontario peatlands with an investment decision model

Drainage and fertilization of an existing peatland black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) stand and 24 possible methods of planting a clear-cut area near Cochrane, Ontario were evaluated by means of a recently developed forestry investment decision model, FIDME.Results indicate that, on the basis of the cost estimates used and assumptions made, drainage of the existing stand is the most economical treatment if it can reduce the rotation age by 30 years or more. Drainage combined with fertilization is the second best alternative if this treatment can reduce the rotation age by 40 years or more. Fertilization of the undrained site ranks a distant third, and then only if it reduces the rotation age by 10 years; otherwise, it will be uneconomical to apply.In the case of the clear-cut area, planting bare-root stock on a mechanically prepared but undrained site without weed control ranked first among the 24 alternatives considered; the same treatment, but with weed control included, ranked second. Planting containerized seedlings on a mechanically prepared but undrained site with weed control ranked third, followed by planting bare-root stock on a mechanically prepared and drained site with weed control. In contrast, planting containerized seedlings on an unprepared site and with no weed control ranked as the least cost-effective method considered.     

土壤增温隔水处理对杉木幼林材管胞形态的影响

采用地下管道进行土壤增温5℃与透明U型管隔离降水50%的方法,人工模拟21世纪末全球气候变暖大环境下闽西北中亚热带地区杉木的生长环境。借助生物数码显微图像分析系统测定了土壤增温隔水处理对杉木幼林材管胞形态的影响规律。结果表明,土壤增温5℃极显著降低了杉木幼林材管胞长度、宽度、腔径和长宽比,显著提高了杉木幼林材管胞壁腔比,而对杉木幼林材管胞壁厚影响不显著;隔离降水50%极显著降低了杉木幼林材管胞宽度、壁厚和腔径,极显著提高了杉木幼林材管胞长宽比,而对杉木幼林材管胞长度、壁腔比影响不显著;土壤增温5℃且隔离降水50%极显著降低了杉木幼林材管胞的壁厚,显著降低了杉木幼林材管胞的长宽比;土壤增温对杉木幼林材管胞形态的影响总体上大于隔离降水。研究结果为全球变暖大环境下杉木人工林木材品质定向培育及其合理利用提供理论依据。