多发风险模型的负盈余持续时间分布的计算

本文对多发风险模型的负盈余持续时间进行了计算,从数值上对古典风险模型与多发风险模型的负盈余持续时间进行了比较,进一步说明了二者的不同之处。     

四川某水库中缓倾角裂隙的概率分析

如何预测坝址区未揭露岩体中裂隙的分布是一个难点.通过采用全开挖面调查的方法,在该水库重要坝段已揭露裂隙精细描述的基础上进行统计分析,分别求解出裂隙平均间距和平均迹长符合的慨率模型,进而找出两者之间符合的一般规律,达到通过揭露裂隙来预测未揭露岩体的裂隙分布,为大坝的施工建设提供具体的预测.     

Gradient analysis of an eastern sand savanna's woody vegetation,and its long-term responses to restored fire processes

Little information is available comparing historic and modern sand savannas, and how remnants respond to restored fire. We compared short- and long-term effects of restored fire on the Tefft Savanna, a 197 ha eastern sand savanna in northwest Indiana that had undergone three decades of fire protection. U.S. Public Land Survey data from Tefft in 1833 indicate black and white oak barrens, and pin oak savanna, with trees averaging 50 stems/ha and 4 m²/ha basal area. We used ordination and a digital elevation model to assess topographic distribution of tree species in 1986. In 1986, we also compared initial effects of high- and low-intensity dormant season fire on woody vegetation among nine blocks containing black oak, white oak, and pin oak stands. Twenty years later, we compared the same blocks, all of which had been burned three times per decade with low-intensity fires. In 1986, black oak, white oak and pin oak occurred across a gradient of decreasing elevation and slope. At that time, unburned black oak and white oak stands averaged >400 stems/ha and about 10 m²/ha basal area, and their smaller size classes contained non-oak woody vegetation that apparently had invaded with fire exclusion. After initial burns, black oak and white oak stands receiving high-intensity fire averaged <200 stems/ha and had significantly lower oak canopy cover and basal area than unburned stands. Stands receiving low-intensity fire had intermediate oak canopy cover, with basal area similar to unburned stands. Pin oak stands were more fire-resistant, apparently because spring flooding often reduced fire effects. Density, cover and basal area of non-oak tree species were much lower than oaks, and were not reduced by initial burning. Repeated low-intensity burning over 20 years tended to maintain structure caused by initial fires. However, it reduced lower size class stem densities, promoted post-fire sprouting into the shrub layer, and allowed oak basal area to increase in larger size classes. Time since fire regulated shrub layer structure on a 4-year cycle. Density and cover of trees and shrubs returned to pre-burn conditions by the second and fourth growing seasons after fire, respectively, with non-oak tree species exceeding pre-burn cover and density by the fourth season. These results suggest that high-intensity fire is more important than repeated low-intensity burning in structuring and restoring eastern sand savanna, and that non-oak tree species, once established, may be resistant to low-intensity fire.     

甜菜夜蛾人工饲料优化配方筛选

为给甜菜夜蛾的抗性研究、SeNPV的工厂化生产等提供生长一致、高质量的大量虫源,采用二次回归旋转组合设计方法,研究了甜菜夜蛾人工饲料5种主要组分麦麸、酵母粉、干酪素、胆固醇、黄豆粉对其化蛹概率的影响．结果表明,以化蛹率为指标,5个组分的影响由大至小依次为麦麸、酵母粉、干酪素、胆固醇、黄豆粉．以频次分析统计寻优法获得的甜菜夜蛾人工饲料优化配方为：黄豆粉、麦麸、酵母粉、干酪素、胆固醇之比为10．99：9．10：3．99：2．98：0．031．     

三步层析法分离毕赤酵母工程菌中表达的新疆家蚕抗菌肽

通过离子交换层析、疏水作用层析和分子排阻层析等三步层析的方法,分离纯化了毕赤酵母工程菌所表达的新疆家蚕抗菌肽.结果表明,三步层析后,SDS电泳显示单一条带,分子量约为7.0 kDa;所纯化的新疆家蚕抗菌肽具有较强的抗菌活性.该纯化工艺的建立,为新疆家蚕抗菌肽在饲料添加剂、农用抗生素等方面的广泛应用奠定基础.     

基于马尔可夫模型的郑州市土地利用动态变化预测

以郑州市为研究对象,利用1995年、2000年的土地利用现状图,运用GIS技术分析了土地利用动态变化过程以及土地利用各类型之间的相互转化情况。在此基础上,求得研究区土地利用变化的转移矩阵,据此分析郑州市1995—2000年间土地利用动态变化的空间过程。同时运用马尔柯夫模型对2005年和2010年的土地利用动态变化及演变趋势预测进行了分析,得出研究区内耕地进一步增加,林地总面积也在减少,城乡、工矿、居民用地的总量在减小的结论,从而达到全面把握郑州市土地变化规律的目的。     

The Improvement Algorithm of the Hock-Brown Strength Criterion Parameters for Rockbody

Based on a lot of testing data from Xiluodu Hydropower power station and ertan hydropower staton,the parameters such as m and s of the Hoek Brown strength criterion are analyzed in this paper.It is found that m and s are a couple of variables with great corelativity.While the strength of rockbody is a constant,there is negative correlativity between m and s determined by the property and location of rockbody,it is suggested in the paper that the corelativity between m and s is very important parameter which can not be neglected.     

Probability Diagnosis of Structural Failure

On the basis of modeling with structural stochastic parameters,an idea of probability diagnosis of structral failure is presented.It regards the variation of parameter of fault structure as a perturbation on the perfect structure.Crack fault of the double decker space frame is probability diagnosed as an example.The concept of probability is firstly introduced into the field of failure diagnosis, thus we successfully make an attempt of diagnosing the structures failure from qualilative stage to quantitative stage. [WT5HZ]     

An aggregation index (AI) to quantify spatial patterns of landscapes

There is often need to measure aggregation levels of spatial patterns within a single map class in landscape ecological studies. The contagion index (CI), shape index (SI), and probability of adjacency of the same class (Qi), all have certain limits when measuring aggregation of spatial patterns. We have developed an aggregation index (AI) that is class specific and independent of landscape composition. AI assumes that a class with the highest level of aggregation (AI =1) is comprised of pixels sharing the most possible edges. A class whose pixels share no edges (completely disaggregated) has the lowest level of aggregation (AI =0). AI is similar to SI and Qi, but it calculates aggregation more precisely than the latter two. We have evaluated the performance of AI under varied levels of (1) aggregation, (2) number of patches, (3) spatial resolutions, and (4) real species distribution maps at various spatial scales. AI was able to produce reasonable results under all these circumstances. Since it is class specific, it is more precise than CI, which measures overall landscape aggregation. Thus, AI provides a quantitative basis to correlate the spatial pattern of a class with a specific process. Since AI is a ratio variable, map units do not affect the calculation. It can be compared between classes from the same or different landscapes, or even the same classes from the same landscape under different resolutions.     

十个侧耳菌株的模糊综合评价初报

应用模糊数学中隶属度和模糊概率概念,对10个侧耳菌株进行了模糊综合评价。结果表明,SN1是表现最好的菌株,与实际试验结果较为一致。