降水对华北主要粮食作物灌溉需求影响特征

探明华北地区作物灌溉需求规律及主控因素是合理制定水资源规划,缓解该区地下水超采的重要依据。本文基于华北60个气象站近50年(1971—2020年)逐日气象资料,采用FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith公式计算作物需水量,并分析降水对主要粮食作物(冬小麦和夏玉米)灌溉需求时空特征的影响。结果表明：在降水丰水年(25%),冬小麦作物灌溉需求指数I_RI以0.50～0.75区间的高度灌溉需求分布区为主,夏玉米则以0.25～0.50区间的中度灌溉需求分布区为主,分布面积比率分别为研究区的92%、86%;在平水年(50%),冬小麦I_RI以大于0.75的极高灌溉需求分布区为主,分布面积比率占56%,夏玉米仍以0.25～0.50的中度灌溉需求分布区为主,但分布面积比率扩大至100%;在枯水年(75%),冬小麦极高灌溉需求分布面积比率增大至97%,夏玉米则以0.50～0.75的高度灌溉需求分布区为主。降水量是影响I_RI的主控因素,随降水量的增大,不同区位I_RI均呈直线下降趋势,但对降水量变化的敏感性存在较大差异...     

基于1961—2100年SPI和SPEI的云南省干旱特征评估

干旱是一个缓慢发展持续时间长的极端气候事件,而气候变化对干旱的影响尤为显著,评估气候变化对云南省干旱特征的影响尤为重要。使用多时间尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准降水蒸散指数（SPEI）分析了云南省的干旱状况,运用非超越概率和游程理论分别分析了SPI和SPEI的季节性变化和研究区域内的干旱特征。结果表明：1961—1995年冬季SPEI(1)小于等于-1.0的非超越概率为5.2%,但在2066—2100年增加到18.4%;SPEI(6)小于等于-1.0的非超越概率从4.4%增加到21.4%,SPEI(24)从7.0%增加到25.7%。表明由于气候变化,未来有可能发生严重干旱,且中长期干旱比短期干旱更严重。气候变化在1961—1995年和2066—2100年的冬季和夏季造成严重干旱,且中长期干旱严重程度在整个冬季和夏季尤为明显。将SPI和SPEI的时间序列应用于游程理论,发现1961—1995年SPEI(1)的干旱烈度为28.3,到2066—2100年达到60.9,表明气候变化使未来干旱加剧。本研究结果对云南省干旱预测、评估及其风险管理和应用决策具有指导性和实用性,同时可为未来旱作农业生态管理提供一定的依据。     

An aggregation index (AI) to quantify spatial patterns of landscapes

There is often need to measure aggregation levels of spatial patterns within a single map class in landscape ecological studies. The contagion index (CI), shape index (SI), and probability of adjacency of the same class (Qi), all have certain limits when measuring aggregation of spatial patterns. We have developed an aggregation index (AI) that is class specific and independent of landscape composition. AI assumes that a class with the highest level of aggregation (AI =1) is comprised of pixels sharing the most possible edges. A class whose pixels share no edges (completely disaggregated) has the lowest level of aggregation (AI =0). AI is similar to SI and Qi, but it calculates aggregation more precisely than the latter two. We have evaluated the performance of AI under varied levels of (1) aggregation, (2) number of patches, (3) spatial resolutions, and (4) real species distribution maps at various spatial scales. AI was able to produce reasonable results under all these circumstances. Since it is class specific, it is more precise than CI, which measures overall landscape aggregation. Thus, AI provides a quantitative basis to correlate the spatial pattern of a class with a specific process. Since AI is a ratio variable, map units do not affect the calculation. It can be compared between classes from the same or different landscapes, or even the same classes from the same landscape under different resolutions.     

玉米抗倒性检测环境的选取方法

倒伏是玉米的重要胁迫之一,为提高玉米新品种抗倒性检测的效率,需选择倒伏胁迫高发环境作为测试环境。该文结合倒伏胁迫发生机理和大风概率统计模型,首先计算每个气象站点的因风倒伏概率,通过插值和区域统计,得到东华北、黄淮海两大玉米主产区各县区的因风倒伏概率,最后进行玉米抗倒性检验环境的选取分析。结果表明：倒伏胁迫概率超过60%的县区适宜作为玉米抗倒性检测的备选环境,只需3～5个点即可基本保证每年试验都会发生倒伏胁迫;黄淮海发生极严重倒伏胁迫的平均概率高于东华北,与实际情况吻合,两大区域可作为极严重倒伏胁迫检测环境的备选县区有54个,严重倒伏有16个,一般性倒伏有21个;本方法为测试环境选取决策提供了一种量化操作的手段,有助于提高测试环境倒伏胁迫的发生概率和新品种抗倒性检测的效率,降低应用风险。     

Copulas函数在多变量干旱联合分布中的应用

以渭河流域西安站77年的月降水资料为例,采用7种单参数族Copulas函数,建立干旱特征变量之间的联合分布。经拟合优度评价,Plackett Copula函数对干旱历时和干旱烈度、干旱历时和干旱烈度峰值之间拟合程度最好;而Clayton Copula函数对于干旱烈度和烈度峰值拟合程度最好。分别应用这2种Copulas函数对西安站进行干旱特征变量之间的二维条件概率分布及组合重现期计算。结果表明,Copulas函数能较好的描述干旱特征变量间的联合分布;并且具有灵活性和应用范围广等特点,在多变量干旱特征分析中具有广泛的应用前景。     

Relationship between molecular characteristics of soil humic fractions and glycolytic pathway and krebs cycle in maize seedlings

A humic acid (HA) isolated from a volcanic soil was separated in three fractions of decreasing molecular size (I, II and III) by preparative high performance size exclusion chromatography (HPSEC). The molecular content of the bulk soil HA and its size fractions was characterized by pyrolysis-GC-MS (thermochemolysis with tetramethylammonium hydroxide) and NMR spectroscopy. All soil humic materials were used to evaluate their effects on the enzymatic activities involved in glycolytic and respiratory processes of Zea mays (L.) seedlings. The elementary analyses and NMR spectra of the humic fractions indicated that the content of polar carbons (mainly carbohydrates) increased with decreasing molecular size of separated fractions. The products evolved by on-line thermochemolysis showed that the smallest size fraction (Fraction III) with the least rigid molecular conformation among the humic samples had the lowest content of lignin moieties and the largest amount of other non-lignin aromatic compounds. The bulk HA and the three humic fractions affected the enzyme activities related to glycolysis and tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCA) in different ways depending on molecular size, molecular characteristics and concentrations. The overall effectiveness of the four fractions in promoting the metabolic pathways was in the order: III>HA>II>I. The largest effect of Fraction III, either alone or incorporated into the bulk HA, was attributed to a flexible conformational structure that promoted a more efficient diffusion of bioactive humic components to maize cells. A better knowledge of the relationship between molecular structure of soil humic matter and plant activity may be of practical interest in increasing carbon fixation in plants and redirect atmospheric CO₂ into bio-fuel resources.     

三类病毒感染下的手足口病模型的动力学分析

建立了CA16病毒、 EV71病毒及其他病毒株感染下周期性发病的手足口病模型.得到了模型的基本再生数并用它证明了模型无病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性.另外,分析了单一病毒株周期解的稳定性.最后,发现基本再生数最大的病毒株会持续生存下来,其他两种病毒株会被竞争排斥掉.     

露地大白菜低温冻害气象指数保险费率厘定方法研究

【目的】为科学厘定露地大白菜低温冻害保险费率提供方法,为其他气象因子指数保险的保险费率厘定提供参考,为政策性农业保险的可持续发展提供助力。【方法】将1957—2018年每年初、终霜冻日期转化为儒历日,计算平均初、终霜冻日期,将平均初、终霜冻日期设定为低温冻害指数保险中的时间起赔阈值,并利用标准差分级法,对起赔阈值设置的合理性进行检验。精确统计大白菜各生长期投入成本,根据灾损率进行加权计算得出赔付比例。通过计算发生概率、灾损率与赔付比例3个因子综合得出露地大白菜低温冻害保险费率,并对种植区域进行加权计算,得出区域内的露地大白菜低温冻害保险费率。【结果】设计了露地大白菜低温冻害气象指数保险中时间和气温起赔阈值的计算方法,并制定了时间起赔阈值的检验方法。设计了低温冻害保险费率3个决定因子发生概率、灾损率和赔付比例的计算方法。【结论】经过检验,将平均初、终霜冻日期设定为丰宁满族自治县地区露地大白菜低温冻害气象指数保险的时间起赔阈值是合理的。露地大白菜在遭受轻、中、重三级低温冻害时的灾损率分别为0.3、0.7和1.0;发芽期赔付比例最高为45%,秧苗期赔付比例最高为75%,莲座期以后赔付比例最高为100%。各乡镇露地大白菜低温冻害气象指数保险费率为2%～3%,经过加权计算得出丰宁满族自治县地区低温冻害保险费率为2.14%。     

Community structure and carbon and nitrogen storage of sagebrush desert under grazing exclusion in Northwest China

Overgrazing is regarded as one of the key factors of vegetation and soil degradation in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China.Grazing exclusion(GE)is one of the most common pathways used to restore degraded grasslands and to improve their ecosystem services.Nevertheless,there are still significant controversies concerning GE’s effects on grassland diversity as well as carbon(C)and nitrogen(N)storage.It remains poorly understood in the arid desert regions,whilst being essential for the sustainable use of grassland resources.To assess the effects of GE on community characteristics and C and N storage of desert plant community in the arid desert regions,we investigated the community structure and plant biomass,as well as C and N storage of plants and soil(0-100 cm depth)in short-term GE(three years)plots and adjacent long-term freely grazing(FG)plots in the areas of sagebrush desert in Northwest China,which are important both for spring-autumn seasonal pasture and for ecological conservation.Our findings indicated that GE was beneficial to the average height,coverage and aboveground biomass(including stems,leaves and inflorescences,and litter)of desert plant community,to the species richness and importance values of subshrubs and perennial herbs,and to the biomass C and N storage of aboveground parts(P<0.05).However,GE was not beneficial to the importance values of annual herbs,root/shoot ratio and total N concentration in the 0-5 and 5-10 cm soil layers(P<0.05).Additionally,the plant density,belowground biomass,and soil organic C concentration and C storage in the 0-100 cm soil layer could not be significantly changed by short-term GE(three years).The results suggest that,although GE was not beneficial for C sequestration in the sagebrush desert ecosystem,it is an effective strategy for improving productivity,diversity,and C and N storage of plants.As a result,GE can be used to rehabilitate degraded grasslands in the arid desert regions of Northwest China.     

基于贝叶斯网络的城市燃气管道安全失效概率

贝叶斯网络对不确定性问题具有强大的处理能力和自我学习更新能力,而贝叶斯网络软件的应用提高了基于贝叶斯网络风险预测的有效性。建立了基于贝叶斯网络的城市燃气管道失效概率分析模型,运用HUGIN和MSBNX软件工具,结合某市天然气管道案例,计算多态故障顶事件安全失效概率和各失效因素的结构重要度。运用BN的推理能力,对造成管道安全失效的自然破坏因素和腐蚀因素分别进行单因素和双因素修正。修正后的贝叶斯网络模型更加符合实际,对提高城市燃气管道安全失效定量分析的系统性、预见性和准确性具有更好的现实意义,也充分显示了贝叶斯网络在处理复杂系统风险分析中独特的优越性和适用性。