气候变化背景下玉米棉铃虫消长动态预测及影响因素研究

采用甘肃省武威市农技中心植保站1999—2008年棉铃虫观测资料及武威市气象局观测站1953—2010年气象资料,利用统计学方法中的作物生长模型、主成分分析方法,建立了棉铃虫种群增长模型和气象预报预测模型,分析了气候变暖特征及对棉铃虫种群增长的影响。结果表明：玉米棉铃虫百株卵量周年增长动态分缓慢增长、快速增长、减速增长三个时期,快速增长期出现在7月下旬末至8月上旬（玉米吐丝期）;建立了棉铃虫卵始见期、卵高峰期、高峰期卵量、高峰期虫量气候预测模型,预测准确率78%～89%,可用于棉铃虫预报业务应用;揭示了气候变化对玉米棉铃虫发生发展的影响：棉铃虫越冬期（12—2月）最低气温每10年增温0.58℃,暖冬利于棉铃虫安全越冬,越冬基数增加,成活率提高;繁殖期（5—9月）≥10℃积温每10年增加133℃。热量条件改善,有利于棉铃虫种群增长加快、繁殖代数增加、危害期延长;气候极端事件发生的不确定性,对棉铃虫的发生发展将起到明显的抑制作用。     

Leaf and ecosystem response to soil water availability in mountain grasslands

Climate change is expected to affect the Alps by increasing the frequency and intensity of summer drought events with negative impacts on ecosystem water resources. The response of CO₂ and H₂O exchange of a mountain grassland to natural fluctuations of soil water content was evaluated during 2001-2009. In addition, the physiological performance of individual mountain forb and graminoid plant species under progressive soil water shortage was explored in a laboratory drought experiment. During the 9-year study period the natural occurrence of moderately to extremely dry periods did not lead to substantial reductions in net ecosystem CO₂ exchange and evapotranspiration. Laboratory drought experiments confirmed that all the surveyed grassland plant species were insensitive to progressive soil drying until very low soil water contents (<0.01 m³ m⁻³) were reached after several days of drought. In field conditions, such a low threshold was never reached. Re-watering after a short-term drought event (5 ± 1 days) resulted in a fast and complete recovery of the leaf CO₂ and H₂O gas exchange of the investigated plant species. We conclude that the present-day frequency and intensity of dry periods does not substantially affect the functioning of the investigated grassland ecosystem. During dry periods the observed “water spending” strategy employed by the investigated mountain grassland species is expected to provide a cooling feedback on climate warming, but may have negative consequences for down-stream water users.     

1960～2008年辽宁东部产粮区气候变化特征分析

运用统计学方法,对1960~2008年辽宁东部产粮区5个气象站的气温、降水量及积温、日照、冻土、无霜期等资料进行分析。结果表明,近49年辽宁东部产粮区气候变化特点为气温和无霜期呈上升趋势,降水、日照和冻土深度呈下降趋势。积温初日提前,终日延后;初霜日延后,终霜日提前。     

Bloom or bust: synchrony in jellyfish abundance,fish consumption,benthic scavenger abundance,and environmental drivers across a continental shelf

Increases in gelatinous zooplankton (GZ) populations, their dominance of some ecosystems, their impacts to other taxa, and their questionable trophic value remain global concerns, but they are difficult to quantify. We compared trends in GZ abundance from direct sampling for the northeast U.S. continental shelf and tested their association with GZ consumption by spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias); the abundance of two benthic scavengers: Atlantic hagfish (Myxine glutinosa) and grenadiers (Family: Macrouridae); and four environmental indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and sea surface and bottom temperatures. Defined as scyphozoans, siphonophores, ctenophores, and salps, the abundance of GZ on the shelf has oscillated with blooms approximately every 10–15 yr. Conservative estimates of annual removal of GZ by spiny dogfish ranged from approximately 0.3–298 g individual^?1 with spiny dogfish being the primary GZ feeder sampled on the shelf. The examination of three abundance series for GZ identified one shelf‐wide trend and strong relationships with 2‐yr lagged consumption and scavenger abundance (namely hagfish), and sea surface temperature. With multimodel inference, these covariates led to an optimal model of GZ abundance. Blooms of GZ abundance on this shelf were influenced by environmental change, provide surges of food for spiny dogfish, and may offer ‘food falls’ for scavenging fishes. The bioenergetic tradeoffs of consuming greater amounts of GZ compared to other major prey (e.g., fishes) remain unknown; however, these surges of food in the northwest Atlantic appear to be important for fishes, including support for benthic scavenger productivity.     

Ridge to reef modelling for use within land–sea planning under data‐limited conditions

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Management of transboundary and straddling fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic in view of climate‐induced shifts in spatial distribution

The introduction of 200 n.m. exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in the late 1970s required increased collaboration among neighbouring coastal states to manage transboundary and straddling fish stocks. The established agreements ranged from bilateral to multilateral, including high‐seas components, as appropriate. However, the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does not specify how quotas of stocks crossing EEZs should be allocated, nor was it written for topical scenarios, such as climate change with poleward distribution shifts that differ across species. The productive Northeast Atlantic is a hot spot for such shifts, implying that scientific knowledge about zonal distribution is crucial in quota negotiations. This diverges from earlier, although still valid, agreements that were predominately based on political decisions or historical distribution of catches. The bilateral allocations for Barents Sea and North Sea cod remain robust after 40 years, but the management situation for widely distributed stocks, as Northeast Atlantic mackerel and Norwegian spring‐spawning herring, appears challenging, with no recent overall agreements. Contrarily, quotas of Northern hake are, so far, unilaterally set by the EU despite the stock's expansion beyond EU waters into the northern North Sea. Negotiations following the introduction of EEZs were undertaken at the end of the last cooler Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) period, that is, with stock distributions generally in a southerly mode. Hence, today's lack of management consensus for several widely distributed fish stocks typically relates to more northerly distributions attributed to the global anthropogenic signal accelerating the spatial effect of the current warmer AMO.     

数量化理论Ⅲ在土地质量综合评价中的应用

木文对土地质量综合评价的方法进行了探讨,首次提出将数量化理论Ⅲ应用于土地质量分级。与目前使用的系统聚类、动态聚类方法相比,数量化理论Ⅲ更适合于变量类型为定性变量的土地资源调查资料的分类。它弥补了系统聚类方法和动态聚类方法在土地资源评价中应用的局限性,数量化理论Ⅲ是一种可用于土地质量分级的理想方法。     

Review of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland

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湘华鲮的生物学特征及资源动态研究

为了解湘华鲮（Sinilabeo decorus tungting）资源动态,统计了1961-2005年沅水流域湘华鲮分布水域和年产量数据,2006-2010年实地调查了湘华鲮历史分布区域（湘江、资江、沅江、澧水流域及洞庭湖）的资源现状。结果表明,湖南境内沅水流域湘华鲮产量在1961-1980年保持较高水平,年均产量在...     

Isoëtes sabatina (Isoëtaceae,Lycopodiopsida): Taxonomic distinctness and preliminary ecological insights

1. Isoëtes sabatina is the rarest aquatic quillwort in Europe. Although recently found (2013) in Lake Bracciano (central Italy), the species is just one step away from extinction with an estimated population not exceeding 400 individuals and a spatial range of a few hundred square metres.
2. Lake Bracciano is a deep, oligo-mesotrophic Mediterranean volcanic lake that has been subjected to human activities. From January to October 2017, the lake experienced a dramatic water level decrease (up to −1.50 m), which significantly affected the littoral zone and the habitat of I. sabatina.
3. To improve the chances of survival of I. sabatina, the first eco-taxonomic investigation on this species was carried out to describe its genetic distinctness, physical and chemical requirements and companion species.
4. The phylogenetic position of I. sabatina was investigated by applying standard DNA barcoding methods. Simultaneously, during summer 2019, the physical and chemical features of water and sediments of the I. sabatina population and five small Alpine lakes colonized by Isoëtes echinospora – a supposed close relative – were characterized. These data were then compared with the available data on the trophic requirements of the target obligate aquatic Isoëtes, together with Isoëtes lacustris and Isoëtes malinverniana.
5. The present survey confirmed the taxonomic and ecological distinctness of I. sabatina – providing the first evidence of genetic differentiation from I. echinospora. Isoëtes sabatina grows in waters with temperature, conductivity and total alkalinity up to 30°C, 561 μS cm⁻¹ and 3.45 meq L⁻¹, respectively.
6. The edaphic requirements of I. sabatina confirm its outstanding conservation value, and this study offers a basic understanding of how to prevent its extinction. Now, all possible actions must be taken immediately to save this species.