基于MCMC的贝叶斯长记忆随机波动模型研究

针对贝叶斯长记忆随机波动模型的单步Gibbs抽样算法效率低下的问题，通过对模型在状态空间框架下的近似表示，将向前滤波向后抽样算法引入对波动变量的估计过程中，同时在贝叶斯框架下分析了模型参数的满条件后验分布，设计出Gibbs联合抽样算法.更进一步，在对模型进行参数估计的基础上，提出波动变量的向前多步预报分布的估计方法.模拟实验结果表明：联合Gibbs抽样算法能够在保证估计精度的基础上得到优于单步Gibbs抽样方法的抽样效率，对预报分布的特征分析可用于对金融时间序列的风险控制.     

计算机动态模拟方法在城市交通噪声监测中的应用

给出了通过几种经典的物理混沌系统，包括Chua’s电路、Lorenz系统、Chen系统，产生混沌随机序列的两种离散化方法.用NIST制定的测试标准对产生的随机序列进行了随机性统计测试分析.分别对不同的物理混沌系统产生的随机序列进行单比特频数测试、游程测试、离散傅里叶变换测试、近似熵测试、累积和测试，并进行了比较分析.实验结果表明：物理混沌序列要比算法混沌序列随机性更强，不同序列之间的随机性差异可以通过NIST测试得到体现.在三种经典电路中，建议选择Chen混沌系统的电路做为混沌随机序列发生器.     

Geomorphological evolution and present-day processes in the Dessie Graben (Wollo,Ethiopia)

This paper presents a detailed geomorphological overview of the landforms and processes characterizing the Dessie basin, a small graben located on the western Afar Margin (Ethiopia), which is a physiographic province characterized by small, closed basins and mountain ranges produced by regional extension. Large-scale geomorphological survey and mapping of the basin allowed to point out the noteworthy morphodynamic role of the present-day slope processes, including numerous landslides of different typology and size. These processes heavily interact with the built-up area of Dessie town, one of the most important cities of Ethiopia with ca. 200,000 inhabitants, which occupies a large part of the basin floor. The potential incidence of landslides of different typology in the basin and their possible impact on the urban settlement are put in relation with the distribution of the different landform units which make up the basin surface.     

Lumbar erector spinae plane block: an anatomical and dye distribution evaluation of two ultrasound-guided approaches in canine cadavers

ObjectiveTo examine the anatomy of the lumbar epaxial region and to describe two different ultrasound-guided approaches for the lumbar erector spinae plane (ESP) block in dogs.Study designAn anatomical and experimental cadaver study.AnimalsA group of 19 canine cadavers.MethodsThe anatomy was described following dissection of two cadavers. Bilateral ultrasound-guided ESP injections with 0.4 mL kg^–1 of contrast dye were performed in 17 adult Beagle cadavers using either transversal (TVS) or parasagittal (PST) approaches. Computed tomography was performed to measure the total length of the contrast dye column and the epidural, intravascular, hypaxial and intra-abdominal migration. Dissections were performed to assess the spread of the contrast dye and to determine the degree of staining of the dorsal branches of the spinal nerves (DBSN). Mann–Whitney U and chi-square tests were used to compare data between groups.ResultsUsing both techniques, the contrast dye was observed within the ESP compartment. There was no difference in the total length of the contrast dye column between TVS and PST approaches (p = 0.056). Using the TVS approach, multisegmental staining of the DBSN was visible with 100% (17/17) of injections, while complete staining of the DBSN was achieved at 94% of the injection sites. Using the PST approach, these values were 29% (5/17) and 23% (4/17), respectively. The TVS approach stained more DBSN than the PST approach (p = 0.001), with a median (range) of 2 (2–3) versus 0 (0–3) DBSN, respectively. Using the TVS approach, epidural and intravascular migration were present in 2/17 (p = 0.485) and 3/17 (p = 0.227) injections, respectively.Conclusions and clinical relevanceBoth ultrasound-guided approaches resulted in a spread of the contrast dye within the ESP compartment. Although there were no differences in the total length of the contrast dye column, the TVS approach was superior to the PST approach in staining DBSN.     

防疫通道喷雾消毒过程的数值模拟

防疫通道喷雾消毒是切断病毒传播的重要方式.以江苏大学与企业产学研合作研制的卫生防疫通道为基础,基于FLUENT仿真平台采用CFD双向耦合DPM方法,数值模拟了人员通过通道时喷雾和多相流场的分布情况.结果表明,雷诺数为1×10⁵左右,喷雾能够很好地分布在人体模型两侧;上排喷雾孔喷雾角为0°,该工况适合较高人员通过消毒通道;上排喷雾孔下倾10°,适合中学未成年人通过防疫通道;下排喷雾孔喷雾角向下倾斜30°时,喷雾主要分布在人体模型脚部附近,可满足对脚部的重点消毒需求.人体模型移动时会在模型周围形成大量的绕流,有利于提高消毒效率.通过适当调整上下排喷雾孔喷雾角,可以满足对人体模型局部重点消毒或整体覆盖消毒的不同需求.分析结果可以为卫生防疫通道设计与改进提供参考.     

气象干旱过程识别及致灾因子特征分析

为科学识别气象干旱及其发生、发展过程，并探究其致灾因子变化特征，通过1981—2020年海西州8个气象站点逐日气象干旱综合指数（Meteorological drought composite index，MCI）描述历年干旱事件，识别干旱过程个数、入旱出旱时间，分析干旱过程强度、干旱过程降水量等。结果表明：1981—2020年，海西州共识别干旱过程192个，干旱开始时间介于5月18日—6月20日之间，结束时间介于7月4日—8月8日之间，历时时长40~63 d；各等级干旱日数变化趋势不一，茫崖、乌兰县干旱日数变化呈增加趋势，变化倾向率分别为2.0 d·（10a）^-1，1.0 d·（10a）^-1，其余站点呈减小趋势，变化倾向率介于-4.0～-1.0 d·（10a）^-1。不同干旱等级的干旱日数大体呈中部少，西部多的态势，西南地区干旱最为严重；时间序列上，轻、中、重、特旱日数和年最长连续干旱日数呈减少趋势；年最长连续干旱日数均值为16 d，最大值为65 d （1995年）；茫崖干旱过程强度最高，天峻和都兰相对较低。     

Exploring the use of a dialogue process to tackle a complex and controversial issue in forest management

This article explores the use of a dialogue process to approach complex issues related to forest management. An interdisciplinary research team set up an experimental dialogue process concerning the use of introduced tree species in Southern Sweden for the purposes of climate change adaptation. The process involved stakeholders at a regional level, including those with divergent opinions regarding introduced tree species and their use in forestry. Through a process of repeated meetings and exchanges with researchers, the participant's knowledge was deepened and group relationships developed such that the group was able to jointly formulate a set of policy recommendations. The investigation revealed that dialogue processes may improve decision-making by identifying priorities for action or further research. However, when a collaborative process targets complex environmental issues on larger geographical and temporal scales, as matters about forests typically do, a collaborative process must be integrated with external actors and institutions in order to attain tangible outcomes. Consequently, to fully access the benefits of using collaborative processes to handle complex challenges in forest policy and management, the connections between political sphere, the private sector, authorities and research institutions must be concretely established.     

Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China

Water is the important resource to guarantee the existence and development of oases in arid areas. To improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Manas River Basin, this paper investigated the trends and periods of runoff based on the runoff and climate data for the past 50 years. Subsequently, with the socioeconomic and water resources data, we studied a comprehensive evaluation on the water security in this area. The results indicated that the stream flows in the three hydrological stations of Hongshanzui, Kensiwat and Bajiahu have significantly increased and undergone abrupt changes, with periods of 18 and 20 years. According to assessment, water security in the Manas River Basin was at an unsafe level in 2008. In criterion layer, the ecological security index and the index of supply-demand situation are both at the relatively secure level; the quantity index and socioeconomic index of water resources are at the unsafe level and basic security level, respectively. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development within the Manas River Basin, it is vital to take a series of effective measures to improve the status of water security.     

Fractures of the withers in horses

The objective was to determine the prognostic features and long‐term outcome of withers fractures in horses. Medical records and radiographs of 14 horses with withers fractures from 2 veterinary teaching hospitals were reviewed. Case details, presentation, clinical signs, radiographs, treatment and outcome were assessed. In all cases, withers fractures were found to occur following a fall on the back. Although horses were often presented with severe acute clinical signs, the long‐term prognosis was good, in the absence of neurological signs, and following extended conservative management (an approximate 6 month rest period).     

Haemoabdomen and colitis following a colon displacement in a 9‐year‐old Thoroughbred mare

This report describes acute haemoabdomen following phenylephrine administration in a case treated for left dorsal displacement of the large colon. The horse also subsequently developed a severe colitis which was treated with aggressive medical therapy.