基于GFM和GAMM模型分析对虾白斑综合征(WSSV)对黄海和东海北部水域虾类生物量的影响

虾类是海洋生态系统功能群的重要组成部分,其生物量变化受到多重因素的影响。本研究在开展黄海和东海北部水域虾类白斑综合征病毒(white spot syndrome virus, WSSV)流行病学调查的基础上,利用梯度随机森林模型(gradient random forest model, GFM)和广义加性混合模型(generalized additive mixed models, GAMM),分析了2016—2018年间黄海和东海北部水域WSSV流行对虾类生物量的影响。分子检测结果显示,调查所获取的26种虾类中,11种被检测为WSSV阳性;2016、2017和2018年WSSV阳性采样站点的比率分别为48.40%、38.75%和21.74%,虾类样品中WSSV阳性检出比率分别为16.86%、9.60%和4.80%。GFM模型分析显示,解释变量“阳性样品数的对数(ln_posi)”对响应变量“虾类生物量的对数(ln_Abu)”的重要性最高。GAMM分析中,根据赤池信息准则(Akaike information criterion, AIC)最小原则筛选出的最优模型为：ln_Abu~WSSV阳性率(P_rate)+ln_posi+经度(Long),该模型中ln_posi和P_rate是影响虾类生物量的极显著相关因子,ln_Abu随着P_rate的升高而降低。研究表明,WSSV在黄海和东海北部水域虾类中流行,推测对该海域的虾类生物量存在影响。     

基于EnhanceFish模型的鱼类增殖放流策略研究：以中山市南朗水域黄鳍棘鲷增殖放流为例

增殖放流是增殖受损生物资源和维持渔业可持续发展的重要途径,效果评估是增殖放流工作的重要环节。本研究引入EnhanceFish模型,从生态容量、种群结构、经济效益等方面对广东省中山市南朗水域黄鳍棘鲷(Acanthopagrus latus)增殖放流效果进行评估,探讨了EnhanceFish模型在我国渔业资源增殖放流效果评估中的应用潜力。结果显示,中山市南朗水域黄鳍棘鲷最大的放流数量为160万尾,最佳放流规格为全长6 cm,可获最大净现值6.2万元,可适当提高捕捞努力量,增加渔民人均收入;EnhanceFish模型能弥补其他评估方式功能单一的劣势,在生态容量评估中结果更精确,在种群结构评估中考虑更全面,在经济效益评估中更节约成本。因此,EnhanceFish模型在我国渔业资源增殖活动中有一定的应用价值。     

加快可靠性优化设计的迭代收敛速度新方法

本研究阐述了优化设计问题的求解方法,给出基于系统可靠度的结构优化设计数学模型,对以往求解优化模型时用的优化准则法进行了介绍和改进。通过实例的求解过程,验证了改进后的优化准则法的良好效果,即迭代收敛速度加快。这种改进对系统失效模式较多的情况,效果更为明显。     

Predicting soil depth in a large and complex area using machine learning and environmental correlations

Soil depth is critical for eco-hydrological modeling, carbon storage calculation and land evaluation. However, its spatial variation is poorly understood and rarely mapped. With a limited number of sparse samples, how to predict soil depth in a large area of complex landscapes is still an issue. This study constructed an ensemble machine learning model, i.e.,quantile regression forest, to quantify the relationship between soil depth and environmental conditions. The model was then combined with ...     

临时收储政策退出对玉米期货和现货价格发现功能的影响

借助改进的蛛网模型,分析了临时收储政策退出对我国玉米期货和现货市场价格发现功能的影响机理;并综合运用滚动协整、VECM、BEKK-GARCH与IS模型,系统探究了2009-2019年我国临储政策及其改革对玉米期货和现货市场价格发现功能的影响.研究发现:1)我国玉米期货和现货价格存在相互引导关系.2)BEKK-GARCH...     

不结球白菜维生素C和可溶性糖含量的遗传分析

采用主基因—多基因混合遗传模型分析方法,对不结球白菜乌塌菜×矮脚黄、雪克青×矮脚黄两个组合的维生素Ｃ、可溶性糖含量进行单世代和联合世代遗传分析。结果表明,两组合中维生素Ｃ含量遗传符合一个主基因和多基因的混合遗传模型,主基因遗传率为５２６８％～７４１２％。可溶性糖在雪克青×矮脚黄组合中也符合主基因—多基因遗传模型,主基因遗传率为８９７３％～８９７９％。维生素Ｃ和可溶性糖主基因效应均以加性效应为主,在乌塌菜×矮脚黄组合中,两性状主基因有较明显的负向显性效应,在雪克青×矮脚黄组合中,显性效应不明显。育种实践中应注重对主基因加性效应的利用。     

Soil saturation effects on forest dynamics: scaling across a southern boreal/northern hardwood landscape

Patch modeling can be used to scale-up processes to portray landscape-level dynamics. Via direct extrapolation, a heterogeneous landscape is divided into its constituent patches; dynamics are simulated on each representative patch and are weighted and aggregated to formulate the higher level response. Further extrapolation may be attained by coarsening the resolution of or lumping environmental data (e.g., climatic, edaphic, hydrologic, topographic) used to delimit a patch.Forest patterns at the southern boreal/northern hardwood transition zone are often defined by soil heterogeneity, determined primarily by the extent and duration of soil saturation. To determine how landscape-level dynamics predicted from direct extrapolation compare when coarsening soil parameters, we simulated forest dynamics for soil series representing a range of drainage classes from east- central Maine. Responses were aggregated according to the distribution of soil associations comprising a 600 ha area based on local- (1:12,000), county- (1:120,000) and state- (1:250,000) scale soil maps. At the patch level, simulated aboveground biomass accumulated more slowly in poorer draining soils. Different soil series yielded different communities comprised of species with various tolerances for soil saturation. When aggregated, removal of waterlogging caused a 20–60% increase in biomass accumulation during the first 50 years of simulation. However, this early successional increase and the maximum level of biomass accumulation over a 200 year period varied by as much as 40% depending on the geospatial data. This marked discrepancy suggests caution when extrapolating with forest patch models by coarsening parameters and demonstrates how rules used to rescale environmental data need to be evaluated for consistency.     

Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

Temperature-dependent stock-recruitment model for walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) around northern Japan

Changes in fish year‐class strength have been attributed to year‐to‐year variability in environmental conditions and spawning stock biomass (SSB). In particular, sea temperature has been shown to be linked to fish recruitment. In the present study, I examined the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST), SSB and recruitment for two stocks of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) around northern Japan [Japanese Pacific stock (JPS) and northern Japan Sea stock (JSS)] using a temperature‐dependent stock‐recruitment model (TDSRM). The recruitment fluctuation of JPS was successfully reproduced by the TDSRM with February and April SSTs, and February SST was a better environmental predictor than April SST. In addition, the JPS recruitment was positively related to February SST and negatively to April SST. The JSS recruitment modeled by the TDSRM incorporating February SST was also consistent with the observation, whereas the relationship between recruitment and February SST was negative, that is the opposite trend to JPS. These findings suggest that SST in February is important as a predictor of recruitment for both stocks, and that higher and lower SSTs in February act favorably on the recruitment of JPS and JSS respectively. Furthermore, Ricker‐type TDSRM was not selected for either of the stocks, suggesting that the strong density‐dependent effect as in the Ricker model does not exist for JPS and JSS. I formulate hypotheses to explain the links between SST and recruitment, and note that these relationships should be considered in any future attempts to understand the recruitment dynamics of JPS and JSS.     

全子叶生物活性豆腐凝胶特性的研究

通过因子筛选实验,确定了接种量、微生物转谷氨酰胺酶(MTG)用量和水豆比是影响全子叶生物活性豆腐凝胶特性的关键因子。在此基础上,采用响应曲面法(Response SurfaceMethodology,RSM)分别建立了豆腐硬度和持水率的二次多项数学模型,验证了模型的有效性并探讨了上述3个因子的交互作用。从产品成本和凝胶特性综合考虑,选择出最佳配比,即乳酸菌接种量为105cfu/mL,MTG用量为347 U/L,水豆比为8.5,其硬度和持水率实测值分别为44.8g和89.2%,可生产出富含乳酸菌和几乎全部大豆营养的健康豆腐。