农业机械总动力及其影响因素的时间序列分析——以江苏省为例

对一个地区的农业机械总动力及其影响因素进行分析可为当地农业机械化发展目标的制定提供可靠依据。本文采集了江苏省1989～2006年的相关数据,对江苏省农业机械总动力及其影响因素进行了相关性分析分析,并用自相关时间序列回归分析方法建立了模型。结果表明,影响农业机械总动力的6个关键因素的相关性排序为:农村剩余劳动力转移率、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、粮食播种面积、政府的财政投入、农民受教育程度和粮食单产,它们与农业机械总动力的相关系数分别为0.9396、0.9384、0.8924、-0.8778、0.8671和0.7224,并得出了较高精度的农业机械总动力的自相关时间序列回归模型(R2=0.998),模型预测结果的平均偏差为0.68%。     

ET_0的主因子和主成分神经网络模型比较

为了简化BP神经网络预测ET0的模型,将气象因子包括最高、最低和日平均温度、日照时数、相对湿度和风速进行主成分分析和偏相关分析,提取主成分和主因子,分别建立了基于主成分和主因子的三层BP神经网络模型,并对两种模型的训练和预测结果进行比较。选取湟水流域的乐都气象站2003年到2006年5月逐日的气象资料,采用Matlab神经网络工具箱进行模型训练与预测。结果表明主成分神经网络训练和预测模型的精度都优于主因子神经网络模型。主要是由于两种模型选取输入层的因子不同造成的。     

Application of a sensitive,specific and controlled real‐time PCR assay to surveillance indicates a low prevalence of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) in wild herring,Clupea harengus L., in Scottish waters

Surveillance data on the distribution of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) in the North Sea (UK), targeting Atlantic herring in areas with previous virus detection, were obtained from research cruises conducted during 2005. The sensitive molecular approach of real‐time RT‐PCR (qRT‐PCR) was applied alongside a newly developed endogenous positive control assay specific for herring (elongation factor 1α) to ensure integrity of template. Three hundred and five pools from 1937 individual herring were tested, and no evidence of VHSV in association with wild Atlantic herring was detected. Samples were obtained from Scottish waters where marine aquaculture is conducted. The results confirm that previous tissue culture studies have most likely not significantly underestimated the prevalence of carrier herring in this area. The significance of migratory species such as herring as a reservoir species for VHSV, with the potential to translocate virus genotypes between geographical areas, is discussed.     

A real‐time PCR for the detection of hepatopancreatic parvovirus (HPV) of penaeid shrimp

Hepatopancreatic parvovirus (HPV) causes a common shrimp disease that occurs in many shrimp farming regions, especially in the Indo Pacific, and infects most of the cultured penaeid species. There are seven geographic HPV isolates known, so a method to detect different HPV types is needed. We developed a sensitive and generic real‐time PCR assay for the detection of HPV. A pair of primers and TaqMan probe based on an HPV sequence obtained from samples of Fenneropenaeus chinensis from Korea were selected, and they were used to amplify a 92 bp DNA fragment. This real‐time PCR was found to be specific to HPV and did not react with other shrimp viruses. A plasmid (pHPV‐2) containing the target HPV sequence was constructed and used for determination of the sensitivity of this assay. The assay could detect a single copy of plasmid DNA, and it was used successfully in finding HPV in shrimp samples from the China‐Yellow Sea region, Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, Madagascar, New Caledonia and Tanzania.     

应用时间序列分析模型对大菱鲆选育F1优良家系发育的动态研究

根据Box-Jenkins建模原理,采用ARIMAR(p,d,q)模型,以大菱鲆选育F1优良家系为研究对象,应用时间序列分析方法对在3～27月龄间不同发育阶段体重的生长速度进行动态模拟,建立各家系的预测模型。结果表明,家系E♂1×E♀2和F♂2×E♀4符合ARIMAR(2,0,0)模型(2个家系的模型都不含常数项),家系F♂4×N♀3、E♂2×F♀1和F♂1×F♀4符合ARIMAR(1,0,0)模型(3个家系的模型都不含常数项),且所建模型的残差均为白噪声。由此预测出27～27.5及27.5～28月龄各家系体重生长速度,经与相应实测数据的验证说明,5个家系各自所建模型在一定程度上能够反映大菱鲆体重生长速度的动态变化过程,对各家系体重生长速度的趋势预测有一定的适用性。通过对每一家系后期生长速度的预测,结合前期生长速度的实测值,综合分析体重生长速度的动态变化,为在大菱鲆选择育种过程中确定最佳选择时间提供理论依据。     

中国近海与日本近海白姑鱼线粒体细胞色素b基因全序列比较分析

对中国近海和日本近海共19尾白姑鱼(Pennahia argentata)线粒体细胞色素b(Cytochrome b,Cytb)基因全序列进行扩增与测定,白姑鱼个体的Cytb基因总长度均为1141bp。序列分析结果显示:Cytb基因全序列中共检测到40处核苷酸替代,全部为同义替换,且主要来自密码子第三位点。19尾白姑鱼个体共定义了14种单倍型。核苷酸组成分析表明:白姑鱼Cytb全序列的鸟嘌呤(G)含量较低,在第三密码子位点上表现得尤为明显。基于邻接法、最大简约法、最大似然法和贝叶斯法构建的系统树结果基本一致,中国近海和日本近海的白姑鱼明显分为2个单系群,两组群间的净遗传距离为0.019,基于Cytb2%/百万年分子钟计算,其分化时间约为95万年,中、日近海白姑鱼分化事件发生于晚更新世(Late Pleistocene)。本研究旨在探讨中、日近海白姑鱼组群的分类地位的遗传学依据,为白姑鱼渔业资源的管理与保护提供基础参考。     

A quantitative method for detecting ammonia‐oxidizing bacteria in coastal aquaculture systems

There is a need to quantify autotrophic nitrifiers in coastal aquaculture systems for evolving a bioremediation strategy. Autotrophic nitrifiers are extremely slow‐growing organisms, which cannot be detected by traditional methods as they are notoriously difficult to culture. Molecular techniques based on functional genes could be deployed for the detection of nitrifiers. Ammonia monooxygenase (amoA), that catalyses the oxidation of ammonia to hydroxylamine in the rate‐determining step of nitrification is largely unique to ammonia‐oxidizing bacteria (AOB). In the present study, a quantitative real‐time polymerase chain reaction assay targeting amoA was developed to estimate AOB population size in coastal soil, ammonia‐removing bioaugmentors and the solid matrix. To achieve this objective, different set of primers and a dual labelled probe have been designed for SYBR Green and TaqMan real‐time assays. The abundance of AOB ranged from 10⁴ to 10⁶ order of magnitude in the samples. In the present study, biofilm formation of the consortium of nitrifying bacteria onto bagasse has also been quantified. The results demonstrate that the developed method is a rapid and sensitive tool for the quantitative detection of nitrifying bacteria in aquatic and related environment. This helps in making the bioremediation approach for ammonia removal by immobilization of nitrifying bacteria onto the natural substrate.     

木糖醇发酵液脱色条件的研究

采用颗粒状活性炭对两种木糖醇发酵液进行脱色,就活性炭用量、起始pH值、脱色时间、搅拌速度和温度对脱色效果的影响进行了研究。确定了来自半纤维素水解液的木糖醇发酵液H(FBH)以及来自纯木糖合成培养基的木糖醇发酵液X(FBX)的最佳脱色条件为：在50℃、起始pH值6．0、搅拌速度125r／min的条件下脱色20min,两种发酵液的活性炭用量分别为250和150g／L。如果先将FBH的pH值调节至3．0,抽滤除去因调节pH值而产生的色素沉淀后,回调pH值至6．0．再进行活性炭脱色,则可以节约活性炭用量约50g／L,同时提高木糖醇回收率约6％。该结果将有助于建立一套完整高效的发酵法生产木糖醇的工艺。