The simulation model InterCSF was developed to simulate the Dutch Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemic of 1997–98 as closely as possible. InterCSF is a spatial, temporal and stochastic simulation model. The outcomes of the various replications give an estimate of the variation in size and duration of possible CSF-epidemics. InterCSF simulates disease spread from an infected farm to other farms through three contact types (animals, vehicles, persons) and through local spread up to a specified distance. The main disease-control mechanisms that influence the disease spread in InterCSF are diagnosis of the infected farms, depopulation of infected farms, movement-control areas, tracing, and pre-emptive slaughter. InterCSF was developed using InterSpread as the basis. InterSpread was developed for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). This paper describes the process of modifying InterSpread into InterCSF. This involved changing the assumptions and mechanisms for disease spread from FMD to CSF. In addition, CSF-specific control measures based on the standard European Union (EU) regulations were included, as well as additional control measures that were applied during the Dutch epidemic. To adapt InterCSF as closely as possible to the Dutch 1997/98 epidemic, data from the real epidemic were analysed. Both disease spread and disease-control parameters were thus specifically based on the real epidemic. In general, InterSpread turned out to be a flexible tool that could be adapted to simulate another disease with relative ease. The most difficult were the modifications necessary to mimic the real epidemic as closely as possible. The model was well able to simulate an epidemic with a similar pattern over time for number of detected farms as the real outbreak; but the absolute numbers were (despite many relevant modifications) not exactly the same — but were within an acceptable range. Furthermore, the development of InterCSF provided the researchers with a better insight into the existing knowledge gaps. In part II (see the final paper in this issue), InterCSF was used to compare various control strategies as applied to this epidemic. 相似文献
Spatial heterogeneity and long-distance translocation (LDT) play important roles in the spatio-temporal dynamics and management of emerging infectious diseases and invasive species. We assessed the influence of LDT events on the invasive spread of raccoon rabies through Connecticut. We identified several putative LDT events, and developed a network-model to evaluate whether they became new foci for epidemic spread. LDT was fairly common, but many of the LDTs were isolated events that did not spread. Two putative LDT events did appear to become nascent foci that affected the epidemic in surrounding townships.
In evaluating the role of LDT, we simultaneously revisited the problem of spatial heterogeneity. The spread of raccoon rabies is associated with forest cover—rabies moves up to three-times slower through the most heavily forested townships compared with those with less forestation. Forestation also modified the effect of rivers. In the best overall model, rabies did not cross the river separating townships that were heavily forested, and the spread slowed substantially between townships that were lightly forested. Our results suggest that spatial heterogeneity can be used to enhance the effects of rabies control by focusing vaccine bait distribution along rivers in lightly forested areas. LDT events are a concern, but this analysis suggests that at a local scale they can be isolated and managed. 相似文献
The participation of active defense responses in the limitation of fungal spread in the sapwood of living sugi tree was determined.
Isolates ofGuignardia cryptomeriae were inoculated to living trees, fresh logs, frozen and thawed logs and autoclaved logs, and the spread of wood discoloration
and fungal hyphae was assessed. In autoclaved logs and freeze-treated logs, wood discoloration and reaction zone formation
were not observed, and fungal hyphae of both of virulent and avirulent isolates grew rapidly in the wood. In fresh logs, wood
discoloration and the formation of a pale reaction zone and transition zone were observed. Virulent isolates spread rapidly,
but the spread of avirulent isolates was inhibited. In living trees, wood discoloration was observed and reaction zones were
formed at lesion margins. These results indicated that constitutive defense mechanisms had no effect on the spread of both
of virulent and avirulent isolates, and that active defense responses were important in the limitation of spread of fungal
hyphae, hence in the limitation of wood discoloration. Further, it appeared that avirulent, but not virulent, races ofG. cryptomeriae were easily inhibited even by weak host responses.
This study was presented at 105th and 106th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Forestry Society. 相似文献
Calcium penetration from salt solutions of calcium chloride and calcium acetate was measured through isolated tomato fruit (Solanum lycopersicum L., cultivar ‘Panovy’) cuticles after 4, 24, and 48 h. Droplet spread area (volume = 1 μL) and the area ultimately covered with calcium were determined with a scanning electron microscope which has an integrated energy dispersive X-ray microanalysis system. An ethoxylated rapeseed oil surfactant (RSO 5) was used for inducing different degrees of droplet spread and together with different calcium concentrations of the solutions to vary the concentration gradient in the penetration experiments. As a rule, penetration of calcium from CaCl2 was higher than that of Ca(CH3COO)2. The addition of RSO 5 to salt solutions resulted in enhanced calcium penetration in comparison to unformulated solutions. However, extending penetration time from 4 to 48 h predominantly did not enhance the penetrated calcium amount significantly. Droplet spread area was enhanced up to 4-fold after adding RSO 5, whereas the area ultimately covered with calcium did not exceed twice as much. This resulted in lower percentage area covered by calcium in droplet footprints from formulated solutions in comparison to solutions without addition of RSO 5. Correlation analyses showed that penetration was not related to droplet spread area but significantly correlated with the area covered by calcium. These observations were true for unformulated calcium salts as well as for calcium solutions with addition of RSO 5. Therefore, the area ultimately covered with calcium or even other xenobiotics within a droplet footprint should be considered in developing mathematical models to simulate active ingredient (a.i.) penetration. 相似文献