西南桦人工林单株生物量的回归模型

通过对林分进行每木调查,以D-H曲线进行平均木选择,分径阶伐倒平均木获得生物量数据。以幂指数模型为基础对西南桦人工林的单株生物量模型进行了模拟,以胸径(D)、树高(H)、1/2树高处直径(D1/2)、胸径平方乘树高(D2H)等作自变量,所选择的树干、树枝、树叶、树根的回归模型分别为:Wt=0.563D2.631、Wb=0.0003D3.6499、Wl=0.0022D2.6063、Wr=1.4×10-7H5.9972。以胸径(D)、树高(H)、1/2树高处直径(D1/2)、胸径平方乘树高(D2H)等作自变量的回归模型均可作为全树生物量预测模型。     

基于GIS的降水多元回归模型在黑河干流山区的应用

结合GIS和统计学方法,利用21个站点气象数据和DEM（基于5个因子：高程、坡度、坡向、经度和纬度）在黑河干流山区构建一种多元非线性回归模型,用以模拟研究区降水量空间分布,并分析了全年、湿季和干季3种情景及3种不同空间分辨率数据相互耦合下的雨量变化。结果表明,该模型可解释研究区74.5%的年降水空间变异,对湿季降水量解释效果要好于全年和干季两种情景;100 m分辨率下的3种降水模型效果均为最好;降水量空间分布不均匀,100 m分辨率下,由西北部不足200 mm增加至东南部700 mm左右,降水量分界线呈西北-东南走向;500 m分辨率的降水量分界呈带状,有一定程度上移;1 000 m分辨率的降水量分布误差大。本研究采用的建模方法有较强移植性,可在其他山区开发类似模型,利用其模拟结果进行更深入的研究,今后在建模中加入空间化的风速变量有可能进一步提高模型精度。     

Dual-purpose Guzerá cattle exhibit high dairy performance under heat stress

The present study evaluated the heat stress response pattern of dual-purpose Guzerá cattle for test-day (TD) milk yield records of first lactation and estimated genetic parameters and trends related to heat stress. A total of 31,435 TD records from 4,486 first lactations of Guzerá cows, collected between 1986 and 2012, were analysed. Two random regression models considered days in milk (DIM) and/or temperature × humidity-dependent (THI) covariate. Impacts of −0.037, −0.019 and −0.006 kg/day/THI for initial and intermediate stages of lactation were observed when considering the mean maximum daily temperature and humidity to calculate THI. Heritability estimates ranged from 0.16 to 0.35 throughout lactation and THI values, suggesting the possibility to expect gains from selection for such trait. The variable trajectory of breeding values for dual-purpose Guzerá sires in response to changes in THI values confirms that the genotype × environment interaction due to heat stress can have some effect on TD milk yield. Despite the high dairy performance of Guzerá cattle under heat stress, estimated genetic trends showed a progressive reduction in heat tolerance. Therefore, new strategies should be adopted to prevent negative impacts of heat stress over milk production in Guzerá animals in future.     

草原补奖政策下牧户家庭收入的影响研究——以内蒙古锡林郭勒盟为例

为探究草原补奖政策对牧户家庭收入的影响,本研究基于锡林郭勒盟219户牧民调研数据,运用分位数回归模型,对牧民收入的影响因素和作用程度进行分析。结果显示：草原补奖政策促进牧民增收,尤其是对低收入牧户家庭增收效果显著;草场使用面积、年初家畜数量、劳动力比例、家畜出生率及出售率对牧民收入具有显著正影响,当草场使用面积、年初家畜数量分别增加1公顷、1羊单位,人均总收入分别提高0.02%,0.15%;劳动力比例、家畜出生率及出售率分别提高1%时,人均总收入分别提高0.65%,0.43%,1.83%;各因素对不同收入家庭的收入影响及作用程度具有差异性,即随着收入水平的提高,劳动力比例增收效果趋于加强,而家畜出生率和出售率的增收效果则趋于减弱。因此,建议引导牧民发展畜牧业适度规模经营、加大畜牧业社会化服务体系建设等以提高牧民收入水平。     

The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands--a survival analysis

The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km²) in the area (HR_{1000 pigs} 1.48) and herd size (HR_{100 pigs} = 1.01).

Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.     

Analysis of horse movements from non-commercial horse properties in New Zealand

AIMS: To investigate property-level factors associated with the movement of horses from non-commercial horse properties, including the size and location of the property, number and reason for keeping horses.

METHODS: Using a cross-sectional survey 2,912 questionnaires were posted to randomly selected non-commercial horse properties listed in a rural property database. The survey collected information about the number of horses, and reasons for keeping horses on the property, and any movement of horses in the previous 12 months. Three property-level outcomes were investigated; the movement status of the property, the frequency of movement events, and the median distance travelled from a property. Associations were examined using logistic regression and Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance.

RESULTS: In total 62.0% (488/791) of respondents reported at least one movement event in the year prior to the survey, for a total of 22,050 movement events. The number of movement events from a property varied significantly by the number of horses on the property (p<0.02), while the median distance travelled per property varied significantly by both region (p<0.03) and property size (p<0.01). Region, property size, the number of horses kept, and keeping horses for competition, recreation, racing or as pets were all significantly associated with movement status in the multivariable analyses (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study showed that there are characteristics of non-commercial horse properties that influence movement behaviour. During an exotic disease outbreak the ability to identify properties with these characteristics for targeted control will enhance the effectiveness of control measures.     

气候变化适应及其影响因素研究——山东胶州湾地区居民的实证分析

为探索气候变化感知在适应决策过程中的作用机理,本研究以深度访谈数据为基础,基于“感知－适应”分析框架,采用二元Probit模型和泊松回归模型,分析胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策和适应选择的影响因素。研究表明,胶州湾地区绝大多数居民已经感知到气候变化,半数以上居民采取了一定的适应措施,大多数居民对适应措施效果的感到满意。居民采取适应措施介于0-4项,平均为1.07项,适应措施的普及率和多样化仍有提升空间。影响胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策与适应选择的主要因素存在一定差异性,但“居民对气候变化的感知”不论是对适应决策还是对适应选择的影响都较大,其中又以“对降水变化的感知”和“对气象灾害损失的感知”最为显著。     

鸡蛋蛋壳裂纹敲击振动功率谱信号特征参数筛选和分析

运用自行研制的禽蛋裂纹检测装置,可以采集并分析敲击鸡蛋产生的响应信号,检测裂纹蛋。提取敲击响应信号功率谱的10个特征参数,并采用逐步回归法和遗传算法进行优化和筛选,以期选取更有效的特征参数,提高模型检测精度。结果表明,遗传算法筛选结果明显优于逐步回归法。当采用遗传算法筛选的4个特征参数(功率谱信号的第1共振峰对应的频率点、第1共振峰的功率谱与其前4个频率功率谱的方差、前3个共振峰功率谱方差、中低频段功率谱能量比)作为判别模型的输入向量,模型能取得最优结果,预测集判别率可达到97.2%。     

关于光谱反射率和小麦叶面指数之间关系的研究

根据理论分析作出了小麦叶片7种角度分布情况下的光谱植被指数和吸收的光合辐射曲线以及叶面指数和吸收的光合辐射曲线。由实测的小麦光谱反射率数据计算出光谱植被指数,再使用这二套理论曲线可求出小麦的叶面指数。还作出了叶片7种角度分布下,小麦叶面指数计算值和测量值之间的线性回归方程,得出小麦叶片倾角为70°的分布和使用 ND 光谱指数具有最好的结果。     

基于连续清查固定样地生物量的立地质量评价

以浙江省内陆立地区——非岩成土地区山地丘陵的立地为研究对象,用998个森林资源连续清查固定样地作为建模样本,以单位面积生物量年生产量为因变量,采用以生物量为指标的直接评价法,通过逐步回归分析筛选出立地质量主导因子,根据数量化理论I模型,构建立地质量数量化评价模型,评价研究区内各立地类型的立地质量等级,估算区域内各等级林地面积。结果表明：海拔、坡位、坡向、土层厚度、腐殖质层厚度5个因子可作为立地质量评价的主导因子;以生物量作为立地质量评价指标,具有较好的生物学意义;构建的立地质量评价模型,能有效评定研究区的立地质量等级,在林业生产应用中具有现实意义。