江苏省高品质棉生产经营现状与发展对策

江苏省是全国产棉大省,在全国占有重要地位.近年来,江苏高品质棉有了很大发展,但也面临一些问题,如品种单一,缺乏有效的产销衔接等.本文提出了江苏高品质棉优势区域发展战略措施.     

A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description

A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.     

世界棉花育种科技水平进展与发展对策

９０年代以来，世界棉花育种的特点为：（１）以提高单产为主要目标；（２）以提高纤维品质为主要目标；（３）以保护环境为主要目标。通过不同的育种途径，棉花育种成绩斐然，为人类的发展提供了重要的物质基础。２０００年前，中国棉花育种对策的重点应（１）加强基础研究；（２）改革现行流通体制；（３）改进原棉检测手段；（４）育种目标与市场反馈信息结合。     

Determinants of income-earning strategies and adoption of conservation practices in hillside communities in rural Honduras

Based on the results of participatory diagnostic surveys conducted in 95 rural communities in the hillsides of Honduras, we determine income earning strategies at the community level; identify their main determinants; and analyze the adoption of of conservation practices. Eight income-earning strategies were distinguished that reflect differences in comparative advantage between communities. We explain the choice of income earning strategy using a multinomial logit model that includes biophysical, economic, social and institutional variables. We use a probit model to show that adoption of conservation practices is determined by the type of income earning strategy, population density, market access, and organizational variables.     

长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流的治理工程效果评估与减灾策略——以金沙江白鹤滩水电站为例

[目的]评估灾害性泥石流严重的长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流灾害治理工程效果,为长江上游同类水电站的泥石流防灾减灾与治理效果评估研究提供思路。[方法]选择金沙江白鹤滩水电站施工区的矮子沟和大寨沟泥石流治理工程为案例,通过2013—2015年连续3a的现场跟踪调查分析,结合模型计算对矮子沟和大寨沟泥石流峰值流量过程进行计算,分别评估2014和2015年矮子沟、大寨沟泥石流治理工程效果,并进行泥石流危险性评价。[结果]基于长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流灾害特点,提出了长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流治理工程效果评估模式,并提出了基于风险控制的水电工程泥石流"以排为主,适当拦挡"治理模式与减灾策略。[结论]矮子沟、大寨沟现有的泥石流防治措施在满库的状态下能够满足500年一遇泥石流过流的要求,泥石流危险性小。     

黄土山丘区农村居民点类型划分与优化策略

科学划分农村居民点类型和制定优化策略,对于区域农村居民点空间布局优化具有重要意义。以山西省长河流域为例,以农户问卷调查为基础,运用层次分析法和专家咨询法构建了长河流域农村居民点综合影响力评价指标体系,对研究区域农村居民点进行了综合评价,划分了农村居民点等级类型,并确定了农村居民点布局优化策略。研究表明:长河流域农村居民点布局主要受经济发展水平、社会环境水平和生态环境水平的影响,具体包括农业机械化水平、城镇辐射度和工业区与居民区的临近度等12个影响因子;基于农户问卷调查和专家咨询的长河流域农村居民点综合影响力评价指标体系,以煤炭资源、土地资源和水资源的协调利用为背景,能较全面且针对性地反映研究区农村居民点综合影响力特点;通过农村居民点类型划分和优化策略,实现了对不同类型的农村居民点实施分级、分类管理,确保了布局优化后农村居民点的空间结构和层次具有一定的稳定性。可为黄土山丘区农村居民点类型划分与优化策略研究提供一种思路与方法,为北方压煤山丘区村庄综合整治与时空管控提供依据。     

云南甘蔗病虫害发生危害新特点及防控对策

甘蔗是我国主要的糖料作物,病虫害是甘蔗生产的最大威胁。近年来病虫害在云南的发生危害呈现出新的特点,主要表现为：一是常发性病虫害持续处于常发态势,二是次要病虫害上升为主要病虫害,三是病虫害混合发生,复合侵染,四是突发性危险性病虫害频发,暴发成灾。针对新特点从病源虫源、品种布局、气候条件和栽培管理等方面分析了其形成原因,提出了甘蔗病虫害绿色防控对策：一是严格执行甘蔗引种、调种检疫制度,选育推广抗病、抗虫健康种苗,二是完善甘蔗病虫害监测预警体系,提升安全科学用药水平,三是集成绿色防控技术模式,探索优化推广机制,四是建立健全应急防控机制,大力推进统防统治,五是创新科技培训机制,宣传普及植保新技术。     

Intra‐household constraints on educational attainment in rural households in Papua New Guinea

This paper examines intra‐household and socio‐cultural factors leading to differential outcomes in educational attainment by gender and birth order amongst smallholder oil palm households in Papua New Guinea. Not all children share equitably in the household resources allocated to education: females have lower average education levels than males, and high birth order children have higher education attainment than lower birth order siblings, indicating preferential parental investment in sons and early born children. The findings demonstrate that despite households having regular access to relatively high incomes from oil palm and residing in close proximity to schools, primary school net enrolment rates remain significantly lower than those for East Asia and the Pacific region, and the millennium development goal of universal primary education has not been met. This finding is likely to be the result of a combination of intra‐household factors including gender power imbalances, low parental education levels, the agency of youth in educational decision‐making and the weakening attraction of education as a means of improving income‐earning potential.     

我国玉米茎腐病研究进展

玉米茎腐病是一种世界性土传真菌病害,该病害在我国玉米产区均有发生。近年来,受耕作制度（如保护性耕作、秸秆还田等）的改变和气候变化的影响,生产中使用的高抗茎腐病的玉米品种不多等因素,致使田间病原菌数量增加,我国玉米茎腐病有逐渐加重的趋势。针对玉米茎腐病危害逐年加重的现状,本文系统综述了玉米茎腐病致病菌、发病症状表现、病情分级标准、病害侵染规律、抗性鉴定评价方法等方面的研究进展情况,并提出了玉米茎腐病的防治策略。