Modelling the effect of El Niño on the persistence of small populations: The Galápagos penguin as a case study

Small populations are vulnerable to long-term declines, even where short-term censuses indicate increasing trends in numbers. Census data for the Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus) collected between 1970 and 2004 provide evidence that despite year-to-year population increases detected in most of the annual censuses, the strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were followed by population declines of more than 60% from which the species has yet to recover. Such large declines raise concerns about the future viability of the species because the frequency and severity of El Niño events are predicted to increase. We used the simulation software VORTEX to evaluate the potential effects of El Niño on the risk of extinction of the Galápagos penguin population and its four constituent subpopulations. Weak and strong El Niño events were treated as catastrophes, with varying frequencies, which simulated past, current and future effects on the penguin population. The “Current El Niño” scenario, based on the frequency of El Niño events recorded in the Galápagos between 1965 and 2004, indicated an approximately 30% probability of extinction within the next 100 years for the penguin population. More ominously, the species may be at a greater risk if the frequency of strong El Niño episodes increases only marginally. A probability of extinction greater than 80% was predicted when the current frequency (5%) of strong El Niño events was doubled (to 10%). The probabilities of extinctions were higher for each subpopulation treated individually, ranging from 34% for Isabela and Fernandina, 64% for Bartolomé-Santiago to 78% for the smallest subpopulation on Floreana. Sensitivity analyses identified survival of penguins during El Niño events and sex ratio as influential parameters. The estimates of extinction risk may be conservative as other threats associated with increased human activities on the islands may further compromise species persistence.     

Towards a ‘red list’ for crop plant species

An attempt is made toward the application of IUCN criteria and Red List Categories to agricultural and horticultural plants (excluding ornamentals). The main sources for this study were Mansfeld’s Encyclopedia (2001) and the IUCN Red List of threatened plants (2001). About 200 threatened cultivated plants are considered and presented in the respective lists, among them completely extinct crop plants such as Anacyclus officinarum and Bromus mango. The information available about neglected and underutilized crop plants still lags behind that about wild plants, especially at the species level, and more studies are required. On the other hand studies of major crops at the infraspecific level, are very advanced and can serve as models for investigating the wild ones.     

History matters: Impact of historical land use on butterfly diversity in clear-cuts in a boreal landscape

In Swedish boreal landscapes, the loss of species-rich semi-natural grasslands is largely due to a long history of agricultural abandonment. Large areas historically managed as meadows have become mature coniferous forest. This study focused on the potential biological legacy following a long period of grassland abandonment. The butterfly fauna in clear-cuts which was historically meadows and abandoned long enough to allow a generation of conifers to mature (70-90 years) was compared with clear-cuts which were historically coniferous forest. The results showed that clear-cuts historically managed as meadows were: (i) much richer in individuals, (ii) more species-rich, and (iii) contained many more grassland specialists than clear-cuts with a history as forest, with many of these species threatened in other parts of Europe.The results from our study demonstrate for the first time, to our knowledge, that the legacy of historical land-use in remnant plant communities can affect butterfly diversity in clear-cuts and hence the large-scale dynamics over a timescale of a full tree rotation. The results of this study have implications for forest management practices. Replanting clear-cuts on land that was previously meadows with deciduous trees or allowing the forest to regenerate naturally instead of planting conifers would make it possible to preserve a greater diversity of habitats for butterflies and other organisms.     

Dispersal of the endangered flightless beetle Dorcadion fuliginator (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in spatially realistic landscapes

Habitat destruction and degradation are the major causes for the decline of the endangered grass-feeding beetle Dorcadion fuliginator in Central Europe. In the southern part of the Upper Rhine valley (border region of Switzerland, Germany and France) the habitat suitable for this flightless beetle has been reduced to small remnants of extensively managed dry grassland, usually surrounded by intensively cultivated agricultural fields or settlements. Using a mark-release-resight technique we examined movement patterns in three D. fuliginator populations to obtain basic information on the dispersal ability and longevity of this beetle. Estimated daily survival rates ranged from 88.8% to 90.8% in the populations examined. This corresponds to a mean life span of 10.5 days. Distances moved by D. fuliginator differed among populations. The beetles walked the largest distances in the verges of a field track. Several beetles moved distances of 20-100 m along the track, with a maximum distance of 218 m (a male in 12 days). The shortest displacements were recorded in the bank of the river Rhine, a narrow habitat surrounded by tarmac roads. We also assessed the spatial arrangement of 12 patches with D. fuliginator populations in two regions and estimated the size of each population over 4 years. Data on dispersal, daily survival, population size and spatial arrangement of patches were used to simulate patch-specific migration rates. The simulations suggested that in both areas the beetles regularly moved between neighbouring patches separated by distances shorter than 100 m, whereas patches separated by distances exceeding 500 m are isolated.     

Evaluating population persistence of Delmarva fox squirrels and potential impacts of climate change

In addition to the combined effects of forest fragmentation, habitat loss, and population isolation on the long-term persistence of many species including the endangered Delmarva fox squirrel (Sciurus niger cinereus), future changes in climate may make existing habitats less productive and more variable. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Delmarva Peninsula of the mid-Atlantic USA, reveals a trend for longer durations of potentially unfavorable conditions for fox squirrel population growth. We used a stochastic population matrix model and available life history information to assess population extinction risk for the Delmarva fox squirrel under a number of scenarios of landscape change and environmental variation, including uncertainties in the future range of climate patterns. Patch size (carrying capacity) was the most important factor influencing persistence of isolated populations. Extinction risk increased markedly across all patch sizes when year to year patterns in environmental variability were autocorrelated to match regional patterns in the PDSI. Increased autocorrelation matching the regional PSDI increased extinction risk, ranging from a factor of 5 to a factor of over 100 in some scenarios when compared to uncorrelated patterns in environmental variability. Increasing the range of variation in survival probabilities was less important to persistence, but its effect also increased when year-to-year changes were autocorrelated in time. Comparing model results with the size and landscape configuration of currently occupied patches on the Delmarva Peninsula showed that many existing populations are above the size threshold identified by these simulations for long-term persistence under current conditions, but these may become vulnerable should climate variability increase and adverse conditions persist for several years at a time.     

Cassava Genetic Resources: Extinct Everywhere in Brazil

Wild cassava, Manihot spp. are sources of many useful characters. Their occurrence in natural habitats is diminishing day after day and a number of them almost have come to extinction. It is suggested that in situ conservation should be followed. It is appealed to concerned authorities to make an effort for their salvation.     

Plant species extinction debt in a temperate biodiversity hotspot: Community, species and functional traits approaches

Destruction and fragmentation of (semi-) natural habitats are considered the main causes of biodiversity loss worldwide. Plant species may exhibit a slow response to fragmentation, resulting in the development of an extinction debt in fragmented plant communities. The detection of extinction debt is of primary importance in habitat conservation strategies. We applied two different approaches proposed in the literature to identify extinction debt in South-East Belgium calcareous grasslands. The first method compared species richness between stable and fragmented habitat patches. The second explored correlations between current species richness and current and past landscape configurations using multiple regression analyses. We subsequently examined results generated by both methods. In addition, we proposed techniques to identify species that are more likely to support extinction debt and associated functional traits. We estimated a respective extinction debt of approximately 28% and 35% of the total and specialist species richness. Similar results were obtained from both methods. We identified 15 threatened specialist species under the current landscape configuration. It is likely the landscape configuration no longer supports the species habitat requirements. We demonstrated that non-clonal species are most threatened, as well as taxa that cannot persist in degraded habitats and form only sparsely distributed populations. We discussed our results in light of other studies in similar habitats, and the overall implications for habitat conservation.     

Freshwater biodiversity under climate warming pressure: Identifying the winners and losers in temperate standing waterbodies

Climate warming is affecting the biodiversity all around the world, resulting in the expansion or contraction of the geographical range of species, and leading to colonisation (winners) and extinction (losers) events in ecosystems. It is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity to identify these potential winners and losers.We focus here on small standing waterbodies in Switzerland and on five taxonomic groups: vascular plants, snails, beetles, dragonflies and amphibians. We first assessed the sensitivity of each species to climate warming through their thermal preferences, using current altitudinal and latitudinal distribution, as a surrogate for temperature. We then evaluated the resilience of species to perturbations through five ecological and biogeographical criteria applicable to the perturbation “warming”: dispersal ability, degree of habitat specialisation, geographical extent in the study area, future trend in geographical extent, and future trend of habitat availability for species.Potential winners and losers of a warming climate could be quantified through their thermal preferences. The proportion of potential losers ranged from zero species for snails to 33% of the regional species pool for dragonflies. The set of potential winners was much larger, ranging from 53% for amphibians to 61% for dragonflies. A multimetric index combining the five resilience criteria enabled the further prioritisation of the species along a gradient of extinction risk.This potential threat from climate warming is not reflected by the current Red Lists of dragonflies and amphibians, suggesting that conservation management could gain from a complementary label indicating the degree of sensitivity to warming.     

Evaluating persistence and its predictors in a West African carnivore community

Carnivore extinctions frequently have cascading impacts through an ecosystem, so effective management of ecological communities requires an understanding of carnivore vulnerability. This has been hindered by the elusive nature of many carnivores, as well as a disproportionate focus on large-bodied species and particular geographic regions. We use multiple survey methods and a hierarchical multi-species occupancy model accounting for imperfect detection to assess extinction risk across the entire carnivore community in Ghana’s Mole National Park, a poorly studied West African savanna ecosystem. Only 9 of 16 historically occurring carnivore species were detected in a camera-trap survey covering 253 stations deployed for 5469 trap days between October 2006 and January 2009, and our occupancy model indicated low overall likelihoods of false absence despite low per-survey probabilities of detection. Concurrent sign, call-in, and village surveys, as well as long-term law enforcement patrol records, provided more equivocal evidence of carnivore occurrence but supported the conclusion that many carnivores have declined and are likely functionally or fully extirpated from the park, including the top predator, lion (Panthera leo). Contrary to expectation, variation in carnivore persistence was not explained by ecological or life-history traits such as body size, home range size or fecundity, thus raising questions about the predictability of carnivore community disassembly. Our results imply an urgent need for new initiatives to better protect and restore West Africa’s embattled carnivore populations, and they highlight a broader need for more empirical study of the response of entire carnivore communities to anthropogenic impact.     

Long-term dynamics and population viability in one of the last populations of the endangered Spiranthes spiralis (Orchidaceae) in the Netherlands

During the last decades, most orchid species in much of Western Europe have suffered significant declines and the long-term survival of the remaining populations remains to a large extent uncertain. In particular, populations at range margins may be more prone to extinction than more central populations, as the former tend to be small and isolated, occur in ecologically marginal habitats and have a lower per-capita reproductive rate. In this study, we investigated the long-term dynamics and population viability of a population at the margin of its range of Spiranthes spiralis in the Netherlands. At present, only 2 out of 40 previously known populations persist. Individual plants were monitored for 24 years and their life span, flowering frequency and vegetative growth were determined. Individual plants showed large temporal variation in sexual and vegetative growth among years. The proportion of flowering plants varied from 0 (no plants were flowering) to 100 (all plants were flowering). Vegetative growth, on the other hand, increased when the number of individuals decreased. Dormancy was present, but occurred only in a few individuals. Using a non-structured population viability model, future prospects of this species were assessed. Calculation of extinction probabilities and estimated times to extinction using the diffusion approximation model showed that the species had a relatively high probability (79%) of surviving the next 20 years, whereas the median time to extinction was forty years. However, because 95% confidence intervals of the population growth included 1, we suggest that continued monitoring and additional genetic research are needed to assess the long-term viability of this species.