农户农机社会化服务采纳意愿与行为偏差分析——基于江西省的调查

基于江西省50个县(区)635份农户微观调查数据,运用Logistic回归模型分析农户农机社会化服务采纳意愿与行为的偏差问题。结果表明：农户对农机社会化服务采纳意愿与行为存在一定的偏差,偏差率为10.8%,此偏差主要受农户受教育年限、对农机社会化服务的了解程度、周边农户对农机社会化服务的采纳情况、加入合作社、参加农业技能培训、水稻经营的土地面积因素影响。其中,是否使用互联网和水稻经营的土地面积会加深偏差程度,其他因素作用相反,是否参加农业技能培训和农机社会化服务的了解程度对偏差的影响程度最大。该研究结论对普及农机社会化服务服务知识,更好地制定和完善农机社会化服务发展政策,提升农机社会化服务采纳意愿与行为的转化具有重要的启示和借鉴意义。     

The Comparative Role of Intervening Variables in Understanding Farmers＇ Adoption Behavior

The purpose of this study was to indentify the most important determinants associated with behavior change by comparing the influence of intervening variables and the characteristics of the farmer and the farm （independent variables） on the adoption behavior of farmers for recommended agronomic practices. A total of 107 farmers out of a population of 214 were randomly selected from two adjoining districts of South Africa and Lesotho. Chi-square and correlations and regression analyses were used to determine the relationship between the independent, dependent and intervening variables. The results show clear differences between the independent in regard to their influence on adoption behavior, but these influences also vary significantly between the practices. In general the influence of independent variable is limited, and together their total contribution in explaining the variance in adoption （R2） varied between about 20 to 40 percent whilst that of the intervening variables varied between 50 and over 70 percent, which clearly supports the research hypothesis that their prediction arid explanation value in terms of behavior is much bigger than that of independent, personal and environmental factors.     

Water saving technology and saving water in China

Rapid expansion of irrigated agricultural and increasing urban demands for water have important implications for the economy of China, especially for the agricultural sector in the northern part of the nation. In response to the water crisis, China's government has begun in recent years to invest in research on techniques to save water in the agricultural sector, although there is a debate about the extent of success in adoption by farmers. Top policy makers have publicly stated they would allocate billions of dollars in funding if they knew it would succeed in saving water. Unfortunately, there has been relatively little research in China on the economics of water saving technology and there is almost no systematic information on the extent to which the technologies have been adopted, if they are appearing to save water, and the characteristics of the communities that have been adopting them. Our goal is to sketch a picture of the state of water saving technology in northern China to increase awareness of past trends and current status. In simplest terms, we seek to establish a set of first order facts about the role that water saving technology has been playing in China's agricultural sector. We pursue three specific objectives: (1) to illustrate progress in adoption over the past two decades, (2) to identify the characteristics of technologies that have been most successful and those that have not, and (3) to explain factors that might be promoting water saving technology and factors that might be holding back adoption. We find that, although water saving technologies have expanded rapidly in recent years—especially those that can be adopted by individual households (as opposed to those that require the collective action of an entire community), there is still considerable room for water saving technology to be expanded.     

Farmer and formal breeding of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) and the implications for integrated plant breeding

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) is the fifth most important cereal crop worldwide and it is the fourth most important crop in Ethiopia. The national average yield amounts 1302 kg/ha. In order to assess the achievement in farmer breeding various types of research were undertaken. These include survey research to quantify the trend in productivity, the level of and reasons for adoption of improved varieties, yield performance and preference evaluation of farmers’ varieties (FVs) and improved varieties (IVs). As per the trend analysis over the last four decades, total production and yield per hectare has increased by 11.63 and 14.2%, respectively. However, area allocated to sorghum has decreased over years by −2.93%. The lack of consistent productivity is attributed to the fluctuation of environmental factors. Sorghum production in Ethiopia is predominantly based on varieties developed by farmers. The share of IVs is very low. FVs and IVs are adopted by 87.3 and 12.7% of the farmers, respectively. Besides, the adoption of IVs is limited to the lowland crop ecology. The comparative yield of FVs is higher than IVs by 132%. On top of yield, farmers do prefer their varieties for other multipurpose values namely feed, fuel wood and construction material. FVs under production are identified in each wereda. Farmer breeding has been successful compared to four decades of formal breeding. On the other hand, both farmer and formal breeding are not without weaknesses; a comparative balance sheet is outlined for both. Ideotypes for the three major crop ecologies are suggested and integrated plant breeding is anticipated to develop the proposed ideotypes thereby increase sorghum productivity in the region.     

Conflicts management,social capital and adoption of agroforestry technologies: empirical findings from the highlands of southwestern Uganda

In the highland ecosystems where actions by some individuals or groups often generate off-site effects among a wide range of social actors and stakeholders, the use and management of natural resources are susceptible to multiple forms of conflicts. This paper examines the hypothesis that conflicts constrain the adoption of agroforestry technologies. Using empirical data from 243 households in Kabale-Uganda, the study identified over 780 different cases of conflicts, and found positive relationships between certain types of conflicts and adoption of agroforestry technologies. The results of this paper challenge the conventional wisdom that conflicts are pervasive, and that the prevalence of conflicts is a major barrier to the adoption of NRM technologies. On the contrary, they seem to suggest that conflicts may have some positive outcomes; they provide incentives for the adoption of NRM technologies, and can be a potential force for positive social change. Conflicts are an essential feature of NRM in the highland systems and cannot therefore be ignored. What matters is the ways such conflicts are managed and resolved, and transformed into a force for positive change. We found that three dimensions of social capital (collective action, byelaws implementation and linking with local government structures) have increased the ability of communities to manage and transform conflicts into opportunities for collective action. These findings suggest new areas for further investigation to improve understanding of adoption decisions and building local capacity for scaling up the impacts of agroforestry innovations.     

Determinants of farmers' adoption and adaptation of alley farming technology in Nigeria

Understanding the factors affecting framers' adoption of improvedtechnologies is critical to success of implementing agroforestry developmentprograms. This paper evaluated the determinants of farmers' decisions to adoptand adapt alley farming technology and its variants in the farming systems ofNigeria, using econometric Logit models. Eleven variables were significant inexplaining farmers' adoption decisions. The model results show that farmercharacteristics that influenced adoption included the gender of the farmer,contact with extension agents, years of experience with agroforestry and tenancystatus in the village. Economic factors, proxied by village-levelcharacteristics that condition resource use incentives, were also significant.These variables include the extent of village land pressure, extent of erosionintensity, village fuel wood pressure, importance of livestock as an economicactivity in the village and the distance of the village locations from urbancenters. The paper showed that farmers are already making significantmodifications to the conventional alley farming technology introduced byscientists. The two most important modifications were the introduction of fallowperiods into the conventional system and changes in the pruning regime of thesystem. Model results showed that human capital variables were significant inexplaining farmers' decisions to adapt and modify the technology. Farmereducation and family size significantly influence the choice of pruning regime.Farmers' age, education, intensity of erosion in the farmers' village, andfarmers' land availability significantly influence whether or not fallowperiod is introduced into the conventional system. To promote greater adoptionof agroforestry alternatives to slash-and-burn agriculture, particular attentionshould be placed on the use of appropriate socioeconomic characterization, tobetter target technologies to areas with higher adoption potential. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

农户采用转基因抗虫棉逆转行为及认知评价调查分析

根据河南周口市273户棉农对转基因抗虫棉的认知评价调查对采用转基因抗虫棉行为发生逆转的原因进行分析。结果表明,农户对转基因抗虫棉品种不满意是采用逆转的主要原因,不满意的原因主要集中在抗虫性单一且下降、产量低等方面。科研育种部门需要有针对性地加强多抗、高产等品种特性育种。     

Comparative analysis of factors in the adoption of traditional and recommended soil erosion control practices in Nigeria

In developing countries, there is a general dearth of empirical information on the socio-economic and agronomic variables needed for planning environmental management programmes. Much of the existing evidence on the adoption of soil erosion control practices come from the advanced countries and concentrate on the recommended ones which are not usually easily adopted by farmers. Using cross-sectional data from a sample of 125 small farmers in highly erosion-prone Anambra State of Nigeria, this paper attempts the isolation of the major factors influencing farmers' adoption of traditional and recommended soil erosion control practices. Multiple regression results show that income, farm size and risk attitude were the most important factors in the adoption of recommended practices while employment, farm output prices and interest rate influenced the adoption of traditional practices most. Also a chi-square test rejects the hypothesis of significant difference between factors determining the adoption of both clusters of practices. It is recommended, among other things, that it is these implicated variables that should be focused on in erosion control practice adoption programmes.     

Economic impacts of adoption and fundraising strategies in animal shelters

The adoption strategies used in animal shelters can have a large impact on the total number of adoptions and donations that take place. Reducing adoption fees during peak kitten or puppy season is one way to reduce inventories and increase the number of open spaces to save more lives, but does not necessarily increase the financial well-being of the shelter if the per-animal costs exceed the revenues generated. We developed a stochastic model to simulate the expected costs, revenues, and net income of a hypothetical animal shelter for various alternative management strategies, based on US conditions. A total of 8 scenarios were developed and compared to the base-case scenario (BC).