落叶松人工林地位指数级导向曲线模型的研究

本文用约1000块样地资抖,系统地研究了黑龙江省落叶松人工林的地位指数级导向曲线模型。通过林业统计分析软件Statistica6.0对各落叶松人工林数据进行拟合、分析比较,结果为：从拟合精度、曲线走向与散点分布趋势、残差分布等综合考虑,舒马切尔曲线函数比较适合落叶松人工林地位指数级导向曲线模型的拟合。     

复合图书馆的信息服务探讨

复合图书馆作为图书馆的一种发展形态，有其自身的特点和要求，有许多值得研究的内容。复合图书馆的读者服务工作是图书馆工作的出发点和各项业务工作的最终价值体现。文章分析了目前图书馆读者服务工作面临的形势，探讨了我们应采取的措施。     

An evaluation of the pesera soil erosion model and its application to a case study in Zakynthos, Greece

Abstract. The Pan‐European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (pesera ) model was evaluated using existing soil erosion data collected under various types of climate, vegetation, landscape and soil conditions. The data used represent a variety of typical Mediterranean land uses such as winter wheat, vines, olives and bare, stony land prevailing in hilly areas. Using this data, the model was calibrated for sediment transport by overland flow and results compared to measured soil erosion values from runoff plots and a watershed on a monthly basis. The performance of the model was assessed statistically, showing that it can be satisfactorily used for predicting soil erosion rates under the conditions included in the study. The overall model estimate including all the available experimental data was 0.69 t ha^?1 yr^?1 with a maximum error of 1.49 t ha^?1 yr^?1. After validation, the model was applied to a small watershed (60 ha) of great ecological importance for the sea turtle Caretta caretta. For this purpose, soil and vegetation maps were compiled from all the necessary data for applying the model. The model was run for three years using daily data from an existing nearby meteorological station. The predicted and measured soil erosion rates for a 7‐month period were 0.31 t and 0.18 t, respectively. Application of the model to each mapping unit showed the over‐riding importance of land use for sediment generation under the given climatic conditions. Bare land, occupying 5.5% of the watershed area, generated up to 69% of the total sediments estimated for the watershed. It is concluded that the pesera model can be used as a regional diagnostic tool under a range of soil, topographic and climatic conditions for identifying the best land use type and vegetation cover to protect hilly areas from soil erosion. The calculated overall root mean square error for the model is 0.06 t ha^?1 yr^?1, compared to a soil erosion rate of 0.04 t ha^?1 yr^?1, which can be tolerated for protecting the area for the sea turtle.     

Application of acoustic Doppler current profiler combined with a scientific echo sounder for krill Euphausia pacifica density estimation

ABSTRACT:   An application of the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP, 153.6 kHz) in combination with a scientific echo sounder (EK60, 38 and 200 kHz) was investigated to estimate the density of krill Euphausia pacifica . The acoustic backscattering strength from sound scattering layers was compared with biomass estimates from midwater trawls. Euphausia pacifica was targeted among mixed species populations in the sound scattering layer in the offshore Funka Bay area of Hokkaido, Japan. The frequency characteristics of acoustic backscattering by krill were calculated using a distorted wave Born approximation scattering model at three frequencies. Krill aggregations identified from the EK60 data were extracted as the mean volume backscattering strength difference between two frequencies. They were then used to identify similar aggregations in the ADCP data by matching observation times and depths for the two methods, which were applied simultaneously. Results from the comparison of the mean volume backscattering strength and the density calculated from the ADCP and EK60 showed that ADCP can be used to measure density and spatial–temporal distribution of krill aggregations. Current speed and direction at the study site were found to be 16.1 cm/s and 187.0°, respectively, and krill speed and direction (including the current component) were found to be 19.8 cm/s and 172.2°, respectively. Based on the ADCP data, the net speed and direction of the krill aggregations were found to be 5.9 cm/s and 128.0°, respectively.     

Re-defining tillage erosion: quantifying intensity–direction relationships for complex terrain

Abstract. Current tillage erosion models account for the influence of tillage direction in the magnitude of the soil (tillage) transport coefficient. It is argued here that this is counter-intuitive and causes significant problems in modelling tillage erosion in areas of complex terrain. This article examines whether a re-modelling of tillage erosion is possible that separates tillage direction (an interaction with the landform) from the soil transport coefficient (a measure of tillage intensity representing the combination of implement erosivity and soil erodibility). Experimental data for mouldboard ploughing upslope, downslope and cross-slope at Coombe Barton Farm, Devon are examined. Integration of data for all directions into a single relationship, which relates translocation in the direction of tillage to slope in the direction of tillage and translocation perpendicular to tillage to slope perpendicular to tillage, is not possible using previously published methods of analysis. However, when total translocation distance is regressed against the tangent of the slope at 45° to the tillage direction (bisecting the tillage direction and the direction of overturning) it is found that a single relationship can be used to describe tillage in all three directions. Therefore, this relationship is used to determine a single value of the soil transport coefficient ( k _fTa) for constant soil and implement conditions but different tillage directions. This redefinition of tillage is important both for true estimation of tillage erosion severity, the adirectional coefficient being 40% larger than the directional coefficient, and for modelling of tillage erosion in complex terrain. These improvements are vital when tillage erosion simulation is used to direct soil conservation strategies.     

Analysis of a Long-term Experiment with Repeated-measurement Models

Long‐term experiments are a classical case of repeated measurements. Traits are measured on the same experimental unit over many years so that correlations arise between the observations made on the same plot in consecutive years. This paper describes the analysis of a three‐crop‐rotation long‐term experiment. We analysed the yields of the crops and the organic carbon content in the topsoil over 30 consecutive years. Several variance–covariance approaches are discussed and the trait‐specific best fit is interpreted. Mixed models are used to describe the structure of the experiment. Both yields and soil organic carbon show a more or less pronounced variance heterogeneity. Especially for yields, the heterogeneity of cycles and years is dominant. The consideration of correlations results in a better model fit in all cases.     

浅谈建立郑州市道路路面养护管理系统

路面管理系统是通过对路面运行状况、使用性能、使用周期、进行对比、分析，预测路面管理的最佳养护预算投资并在最佳养护经济投资条件等各种因素限制下，寻求道路养护管理最佳战略决策。     

Simulating evolution of glyphosate resistance in Lolium rigidum II: past, present and future glyphosate use in Australian cropping

Glyphosate is a key component of weed control strategies in Australia and worldwide. Despite widespread and frequent use, evolved resistance to glyphosate is rare. A herbicide resistance model, parameterized for Lolium rigidum has been used to perform a number of simulations to compare predicted rates of evolution of glyphosate resistance under past, present and projected future use strategies. In a 30‐year wheat, lupin, wheat, oilseed rape crop rotation with minimum tillage (100% shallow depth soil disturbance at sowing) and annual use of glyphosate pre‐sowing, L. rigidum control was sustainable with no predicted glyphosate resistance. When the crop establishment system was changed to annual no‐tillage (15% soil disturbance at sowing), glyphosate resistance was predicted in 90% of populations, with resistance becoming apparent after between 10 and 18 years when sowing was delayed. Resistance was predicted in 20% of populations after 25–30 years with early sowing. Risks of glyphosate resistance could be reduced by rotating between no‐tillage and minimum‐tillage establishment systems, or by rotating between glyphosate and paraquat for pre‐sowing weed control. The double knockdown strategy (sequential full rate applications of glyphosate and paraquat) reduced risks of glyphosate and paraquat resistance to <2%. Introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape significantly increased predicted risks of glyphosate resistance in no‐tillage systems even when the double knockdown was practised. These increased risks could be offset by high crop sowing rates and weed seed collection at harvest. When no selective herbicides were available in wheat crops, the introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape necessitated a return to a minimum‐tillage crop establishment system.     

基于ITGTM的中国入境旅游人数增长趋势研究

本文在分析中国入境旅游人数增长趋势研究现状和研究方法不足的基础上,提出入境旅游增长趋势理论模型(inbound tourism groth trend theoretical model简称ITGTM)。将入境旅游增长趋势理论模型应用于中国入境旅游人数增长趋势研究,依据1978~2006年中国入境旅游人数年统计数据,建立了以1978年为起点,正常年份里的中国入境旅游人数增长的具体数学模型。根据数学模型,结合微分学,分析入境旅游人数增长的趋势(包括增长性和波动性),对我国"89风波"、"98洪水和金融危机"、"SARS"与禽流感对我国入境旅游人数的影响进行了评估,对我国2007~2010年的入境旅游人数做出预测,并将我国入境旅游人数增长划分为1978~1984、1985以来两个发展阶段。     

大花蕙兰营养生长期植株生长与辐热积关系的模拟模型研究

根据光照辐射和温度对大花蕙兰生长状况的影响,通过‘明月’和‘梦幻’两个品种在两个温室中的试验,建立了以辐热积为指标的温室大花蕙兰生长指标预测模型,并使用独立的试验数据对模型进行检验。结果表明：模型对于大花蕙兰两个品种‘明月’和‘梦幻’母球、子球、孙球植株最长叶长、假鳞茎直径、展叶数的预测值与实际观测值的决定系数（R2）分别高于0.98、0.98、0.95;回归估计标准误差（RMSE）分别低于2.06 cm、0.85 mm、1.21 片;预测相对误差（RSE）分别低于4.8%、2.8%、8.8%。表明该模型对以上生长指标的预测精度较高,可为温室大花蕙兰生产中的光照和温度的调控提供理论依据。