不确定性条件下分布式农业生产预警模型构建与应用

构建了基于梯形模糊数和分布式作物模拟模型的空间分布式农业生产预警模型来实现作物产量和水分生产力综合警情预警预报。模型采用空间分布式作物产量和水分生产力作为警情指标来计算系统警级,引入梯形模糊数来表征目标产量和水分生产力的不确定性,采用空间分布式作物模拟模型来模拟常规灌溉、0.8倍常规灌溉和0.6倍常规灌溉下的作物产量和水分生产力,进而对现状1976—2012年和未来RCP4.5情景下2026—2045年不同灌溉水平下进行农业生产风险预报预警,并衡量了未来20年产量和水分生产力的静态协调度和每5年4个周期的动态协调度。结果表明,同一作物在不同土壤类型和不同灌溉水平下预警等级不同,警级随着灌溉水平的降低呈现不规则变化规律,协调性随着灌溉水平的降低而减小。模型能够识别出未来气候变化不同节水灌溉水平下的空间异质性作物产量和水分生产力的警级,实现精准化农业生产风险预警预报,有利于实现高效率降警处理。     

甘肃金塔县种植业结构对气候变暖的响应

为了研究地处西北极端干旱区脆弱气候带的甘肃金塔种植业结构对气候变暖的响应,利用金塔气象站1971—2012 年地面气象观测资料,采用温度距平时间序列及线性趋势拟合等方法,对年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和≥10℃积温变化趋势进行分析。结果表明,近42 年来金塔县年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈波动上升趋势,≥10℃积温呈明显的增加趋势;金塔县种植业结构对气候变暖的响应明显：20 世纪70 年代中期—90 年代中期,当地主栽农作物以粮食作物为主,1998年粮食、棉花等经济作物种植结构发生了根本性变化,进入21 世纪以来,农作物种植面积的布局顺序改变为棉花等经济作物、粮食。由此可得：气候变暖对金塔种植业结构改变有重大影响。     

Fijian adolescents’ understanding and evaluation of climate change: Implications for enabling effective future adaptation

Pacific Island countries are particularly vulnerable to future manifestations of climate change due to high coastline‐to‐land‐area ratios, and high dependence of inhabitants on natural ecosystems. While everyone in the Pacific Islands should participate in climate change adaptation activities, it is the young people, given they are the generation likely to not only bear the burden of climate change, but to lead and live effective climate change adaptation activities and strategies specific to their region, the involvement of youth is critical. Pacific Island youths are often marginalised within traditional decision‐making hierarchies, therefore they are typically excluded from participating in meaningful discussions at community and government levels. Discussions were held with 30 adolescents aged 14–18 years in Fiji to explore knowledge and experiences regarding climate change. Participants revealed their dismay at their inability to talk to family – who they consider are not doing enough – about what they consider as appropriate responses to climate change, recommending the help of an authoritative outsider who could speak to their community leaders and family. Discussions also revealed that Fijian youth could not distinguish between changes in the climate and normal weather events, attesting to the importance of climate‐change education and awareness‐raising efforts within the Pacific Islands more generally.     

广西十万大山自然保护区外来植物的初步研究

十万大山地处北热带山地,有着丰富的生物多样性,但定居的外来种在不断增多,有的外来种成了入侵种,如飞机草等,给该自然保护区带来了严重威胁。通过实地调查以及查证文献,全面整理了十万大山国家级自然保护区的外来植物,并分析了外来种的类型、原产地、引种原因及引入途径,确认：①迄今为止共计99种（含亚种）外来植物,隶属于38科83属,其中菊科最多（10种）,占10．1％,其次为禾本科（6种）,占6．1％;②栽培种56种,逸生种20种,入侵种23种,分别占56．6％、20．2％和23．2％;③外来植物的原产地主要是热带美洲（有54种,占54．5％）,其次是印度（10种）、非洲（9种）和地中海地区（7种）;④人为有意引入有87种,占87．9％。最后对保护区内外来植物的危害预测和防治策略做了分析。     

近50年冬小麦主产区农业气候资源变化特征分析

在冬小麦主产区内选取113个气象站点的1961-2008年逐日气象资料,应用Mann-Kendall突变检测和气候线性倾向率方法,分析冬小麦生育期内农业气候资源变化趋势和特征。结果表明：研究区域近50a冬小麦生育期内≥0℃积温呈明显的增加趋势（P〈0.01）,90年代初期以来,≥0℃积温增加趋势更加显著（P〈0.05）;冬小麦生育期内的降水量变化趋势不显著,也不存在突变现象,但降水量年际间变化较大;冬小麦生育期内参考作物蒸散量的变化趋势不显著,80年代出现弱的减少趋势（P〈0.1）,90年代以后有弱的增加趋势（P〈0.1）;冬小麦生育期内的初霜冻日期呈推迟趋势（P〈0.01）,终霜冻日期呈提前趋势（P〈0.01）,导致霜冻日长度呈减少趋势。21世纪初初霜冻日的推迟趋势、终霜冻日的提前趋势更加显著（P〈0.05）。     

Plot-scale manipulations of organic matter inputs to soils correlate with shifts in microbial community composition in a lowland tropical rain forest

Little is known about the organisms responsible for decomposition in terrestrial ecosystems, or how variations in their relative abundance may influence soil carbon (C) cycling. Here, we altered organic matter in situ by manipulating both litter and throughfall inputs to tropical rain forest soils, and then used qPCR and error-corrected bar-coded pyrosequencing to investigate how the resulting changes in soil chemical properties affected microbial community structure. The plot-scale manipulations drove significant changes in microbial community composition: Acidobacteria were present in greater relative abundance in litter removal plots than in double-litter plots, while Alphaproteobacteria were found in higher relative abundance in double-litter and throughfall reduction plots than in control or litter removal plots. In addition, the bacterial:archaeal ratio was higher in double-litter than no-litter plots. The relative abundances of Actinobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria were positively correlated with microbial biomass C and nitrogen (N), and soil N and C pools, while acidobacterial relative abundance was negatively correlated with these same factors. Bacterial:archaeal ratios were positively correlated with soil moisture, total soil C and N, extractable ammonium pools, and soil C:N ratios. Additionally, bacterial:archaeal ratios were positively related to the relative abundance of Actinobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Actinobacteria, and negatively correlated to the relative abundance of Nitrospira and Acidobacteria. Together, our results support the copiotrophic/oligotrophic model of soil heterotrophic microbes suggested by Fierer et al. (2007).     

气候变化对谷子生育期土壤碳氮磷转化相关酶活性的影响

为研究气候变化对作物不同生育期土壤碳氮磷循环相关酶活性的影响,采用盆栽控制试验,通过人工气候室控制环境CO_2浓度和温度,设计对照(CO_2浓度为400μmol·mol~(-1)、环境温度为22℃)、CO_2浓度升高(CO_2浓度升至700μmol·mol~(-1)、环境温度22℃)、CO_2浓度和温度升高(CO_2浓度升至700μmol·mol~(-1)、环境温度升至26℃)3种气候情景和2种水分条件(充分供水和轻度干旱),研究谷子(Setaria italica)开花期、开花后10 d、灌浆期和成熟期4个生育期土壤β-葡糖苷酶(βG)、β-N-乙酰葡糖苷酶(NAG)、亮氨酸氨肽酶(LAP)和碱性磷酸单脂酶(ALP)活性对CO_2浓度和温度升高的响应。结果表明:CO_2浓度升至700μmol·mol~(-1)时对土壤LAP酶有显著的抑制作用,其对土壤NAG酶活性仅在充分供水条件下有促进作用,而对ALP酶活性仅在轻度干旱条件下有促进作用。增温4℃显著抑制土壤βG和ALP酶活性,其对土壤NAG酶活性的影响与土壤水分条件有关。生育期与CO_2浓度升高的交互作用对4种土壤酶活性均具有显著影响,生育期与增温的交互作用在充分供水条件下仅对土壤βG酶活性有显著影响,而在轻度干旱条件下其对土壤βG和NAG酶活性有显著影响。研究表明,在谷子生育不同阶段,CO_2浓度升高、增温和干旱对土壤碳氮磷转化相关酶活性的影响不尽相同。     

2020年曲阜气候概况及影响评价

利用2020年曲阜国家气象观测站气象资料,分析曲阜市气候特征及评价其影响。结果表明2020年全市平均气温偏高,与常年相比呈上升趋势,降水偏多,暴雨日数7天,较常年偏多2.4天,主汛期（7-8月）降雨多且强度大,照偏多。2020年异常天气频发,灾害时有发生,给农业生产和人民生活造成一定程度的影响,共发生自然灾害5次,其中暴雨洪涝灾害4次,雷雨大风1次,灾害影响了小麦、玉米等农作物的产量,造成了不同程度的经济损失。综合分析,本年气象条件较常年属于正常年份,气候因素同时为农作物的生长创造了有利条件,对农业生产的影响利大于弊。     

葡萄霜霉病发病情况的调查和研究

2001～2003年对北疆部分地区葡萄霜霉病发生情况进行调查和研究.结果表明:6月上中旬平均温度低,降雨量大,雨日数多,霜霉病就会流行.霜霉病的发病与间作作物种类关系不大,主要与湿度大小有关.鲜食葡萄中高墨最为抗病;酿酒葡萄中,梅露辄和佳美较抗病.在石河子地区葡萄霜霉病菌是以卵孢子越冬的.     

湖北省1961年以来气温和降水变化趋势及分布

１９６１年以来湖北省年平均气温变化小，冬变暖夏变凉趋势明显，冬变暖区域集中在江汉平原南部及鄂东大部，夏变凉区域集中在鄂西北。年平均民政部下最高气温有下降趋势，最低气温有升高趋势，夏季的最高气温下降幅度最大、中心在鄂西北、冬季的最低气温增加幅度最大、中心在武汉附近。年降水量有增加趋势，其分布格局是东增西减，南增北减。