The importance of population growth, seed dispersal and habitat suitability in determining plant invasiveness

Summary This paper examines the roles of plant demography, seed dispersal ecology and habitat suitability in influencing invasiveness of horticulturally important species. Section one investigates the relative invasiveness of two woody species, Crataegus monogyna and Prunus mahaleb, and concentrates on differences in demographic and dispersal traits. The second section delineates the invasion of two Asparagus spp. and concentrates on differences in seed dispersal ecology. Section three reports the use of a geographical information system analysis to determine whether habitat suitability, seed dispersal or land management is more important in determining threat of invasion by adventive Olea europaea. C. monogyma, P. mahaleb are closely related with similar habits and overlapping home ranges in Europe. Crataegus monogyna is very invasive in northern New South Wales, having spread rapidly and conspicuously throughout the region and elsewhere in southern Australia at rates of 80–120 m yr⁻¹. Prunus mahaleb is far less invasive, being restricted to a small population, which is expanding at 20 m yr⁻¹. Demographic analysis showed that potential growth rates of P. mahaleb (1.713–1.490) are greater than those for C. monogyna (1.138–1.103). Assessment of the seed dispersal ecology of both species revealed that C. monogyna had seeds dispersed by one bird and three mammals over many kilometers. P. mahaleb had seeds dispersed by six birds and four mammals over distances generally < 100 m. The role of humans in introducing both species and the characteristics of seed dispersal are more influential than demography in determining invasiveness. The more invasive Asparagus asparagoides has smaller fruit with a bicoloured display up to 1.5 m above ground. Less invasive A. declinatus has larger, translucent white fruit displayed at heights < 0.5 m above ground. The role of humans has also been important in shaping the course of invasion. Sensitivity analysis confirms that land management practices, which affect Olea europaea seedling establishment and survival, are most important at a landscape scale in determining invasiveness. The main factors determining the difference in invasiveness relate directly to the changing nature of human management of each species and the ecological interactions between the plants and the invaded environment. This research has implications for the prediction and management of biological invasions; emphasizing the importance of seed dispersal and human activities in determining the course of invasions: both of which cannot be readily predicted.     

农作物空间格局变化模拟模型的MATLAB实现及应用

Agent模型是研究农业土地系统复杂性与动态性的有效工具。在农作物空间格局变化模拟模型(CroPaDy,an agent-based model for simulating crop pattern dynamics)概念化设计的基础上,借助MATLAB平台开放性、矩阵运算能力强等特点,实现CroPaDy模型的数值模拟,并以黑龙江省宾县调查数据为依据,完成模型的区域实证研究。基于MATLAB的模型实现过程充分考虑了CroPaDy模型的多层次性(土地流转行为与作物选择行为)成功实现了3个子模块的动态嵌套模拟:1)Agent生成模块。基于已有的多源GIS数据、统计数据、典型调查数据、以及个体的通用规则,利用蒙特卡洛方法生成每一个个体Agent的属性信息;2)Agent分类模块。基于调查数据对受访农户进行态度聚类分析,然后借助人工神经网络方法确定所有生成的Agent所在的类型;3)Agent决策模块。利用概率方法,计算特定周期内每个Agent的决策行为。区域实证研究中,直接将空间耕地网格作为个体Agent,实现区域全覆盖(网格大小设置为114 m×114 m,约等于户均耕地面积),模拟结果表明,研究区2010年玉米、大豆、水稻、烤烟的模拟结果分别为2 6055.9、5 192.2、3 506.8、3 983.9 hm2,利用宾县统计年鉴(2010)进行验证,模型总体模拟精度达90%以上。CroPaDy模型的设计与实现科学合理,具有较强的理论性与可操作性,能够用以表达特定区域内的农作物空间格局及其动态变化过程。     

硝化细菌分子生态学研究进展

硝化细菌在促进水域生态系统的氮循环、保持健康水产养殖环境方面发挥着巨大作用。本文分析了硝化细菌分子生态学研究的意义,介绍了硝化细菌的主要种类及其系统进化关系,综述了硝化细菌分子生态学研究进展,并对中国的研究现状进行了分析。结合作者的工作实践,认为中国应加强对水产养殖环境硝化细菌分子生态学研究,为养殖环境的污染防治和微生态制剂的研制等提供理论依据。     

支持分布环境的农产品协同追溯平台构建

农产品追溯系统的深入研究与应用,迫切需要提升统一追溯和协同分析能力。该研究以现有不同品类农产品的追溯系统为基础,包含数据整合、模型分析、应用提供3个层面,设计了农产品协同追溯平台框架;构建了包括企业资质、质量检测、产品追溯、消费者反馈4个因素及14个因子的企业信誉评价指标体系,建立了评价模型,可实现基于追溯数据的信誉评价;研究了多源异构数据集成技术和分层动态追溯技术。以天津市为例,以Microsoft Visual Studio 2010软件作为系统设计和开发工具,开发了放心农产品一体化追溯平台,为消费者提供追溯服务,为职能部门提供分析决策。从并发访问能力和追溯效果两方面进行分析,当并发用户数达到40时,单个事务的平均响应时间达到19 s,接近较好用户体验的临界点;与目前已有的追溯系统相比,平台具有多品类追溯、追溯信息多样性、追溯互动性强等特点。研究结果可为提高追溯信息集成度、增强追溯结果分析能力提供参考。     

深厚砂砾石地基墙幕结合防渗体系搭接长度优化研究

目前深厚砂砾石地基墙幕结合防渗体系普遍采用10m的经验搭接长度,针对搭接长度在设计中偏于保守的现状,结合新疆下坂地水利枢纽工程,采用了有限元数值模拟计算和归一化处理的方法,在防渗体系不同深度布置尺寸和搭接长度的情况下,建立有限元数值计算模型,对防渗墙的受力和位移进行研究分析,计算分析出新疆下坂地墙幕结合防渗体系优化搭接长度度值,并总结出墙幕优化搭接长随防渗墙修建深度的变化规律,为深厚砂砾石地基墙幕结合防渗体系的设计和施工提供一定的参考。     

数据库技术在海洋生物资源与生物栖息环境数据管理中的应用

讨论了如何建立和管理符合地理信息系统需要的海洋生物资源与生物栖息环境数据库。数据库采用Access开发平台，开发操作界面清晰明了，开发的功能有数据录入、导入、导出、查询、修改、汇总统计、打印等，系统界面用户可视化，清晰、直观地显示查询结果，其适用范围是针对海上勘测海洋生物资源与生物栖息环境的专业数据管理，能胜任数据库的日常维护与管理。同时介绍了数据库技术在数据管理中的作用。数据库在日后的海洋渔业资源与环境的研究、评价中必将得到广泛的应用。     

渔船安全技术评价系统的开发与应用

为了辅助有关部门与管理人员收集指定区域的渔船的信息,并据此对渔船及其设备的安全技术状况进行科学、客观的评价,该文利用MS-ACCESS数据库的单机访问效率高、数据文件存储与合并灵活便捷的特点,开发了一种经济实用的渔船安全技术状况评价系统,实现了评价指标、标准与模型的自定义以及网络限制条件下的渔船安全技术状况评价数据采集与处理。该系统在应用过程中,数据由基层的渔业船舶检验工程师将有关渔船参数报到地方渔船管理部门,并最终上报到上级渔船管理部门,进行逐级收集、合并、上报与汇总,最后由相关部门的管理人员进行评价、统计与分析。该研究以某区域5700多艘24 m及以上钢质海洋渔船为样本,实施了渔船安全技术状况的评价。实用证明该系统用户环境配置安装简单,界面简洁方便,数据处理效率高,通用性强,运行维护成本低。通过渔船安全技术评价系统的开发与实施,可以对指定区域渔船的安全技术作出全面客观的评价,并辅助管理者对渔船技术状况和安全隐患进行科学分析,提出消除危险的最佳技术措施和方案,为主管机关制定相关政策、安全技术法规提供参考,进而大力改善区域渔船的安全生产状况。     

我国农村人居环境研究现状、热点与趋势——基于中国知网数据库的CiteSpace可视化分析

以中国知网数据库2004—2022年国内农村人居环境为主题的984篇期刊文献为研究样本,运用可视化分析软件CiteSpace 6.1.R6进行分析。研究结果表明,当前我国农村人居环境研究的系统性、深入性等略显薄弱,未来一段时期需要持续在经验总结、城乡融合、完善机制等方面进行更深层次的研究,力求在多学科交叉基础上有所创新与突破,以推动我国农村人居环境领域研究向纵深发展。     

回龙电站尾水洞内衬钢板加固抗外压稳定分析

隧洞内衬钢板灌胶加固技术是在钢筋混凝土隧洞内壁通过植锚栓的方式安装薄钢板,而后在钢板与混凝土接触面之间灌注结构胶,使钢板与混凝土共同受力,满足钢筋混凝土隧洞结构加固的需要。在灌注结构胶的过程中,由于外部灌注压力的作用,薄钢板抗外压失稳问题将受到特别的关注。通过具体工程实例,详细介绍了薄钢板抗外压稳定计算的几种方法。     

Assessing the options for upland livestock systems under CAP reform: Developing and applying a livestock systems model within whole-farm systems analysis

This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15–18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable.