Risk Decision-making Method of Slope Resistant Engineering

Considering the character of slope resistant engineering invest benefit, in line with security and economy balmaced, combining initial investment and anticipated hazard loss, disaster resistant engineering should be satisfied with the criterion of minimum cost. Decision tree model is adopted as analyzing means, and risk decision-making of slope design is carried out. Project input-output radio adopting dynamic analysis can reflect project investment benefit more accurately. At last this paper analyzes some questions in process of slope resistant engineering with benefits enumerate.     

Correlation and Arithmetic of Operational Risk Measurement Basing on Loss Distribution Approach

Based on the principles of operational risk measurement provided by Basel II,the paper discusses the problem of operational risk correlations among different business lines / risk types.The correlation coefficients between the aggregate losses among different business lines / risk types are calculated.Copula arithmetic is put forward to compute correlation coefficients matrix of aggregate losses.Besides,the result is used to calculate the capital requirement of operational risk.     

Contracts of risk sharing of the enterprise, the employee and the dealer

The output of the enterprise changes with the change of natural states, therefore it brings relatively great risk to enterprise. The enterprise hopes to reduce the same kind of risk through more contracts than one kind of contract of risk sharing. This paper presents a new method to disperse the same kind of risk in two kinds of ways. Basing on principal-agent theory, through the optimum contract of risk sharing, the Pareto-optimum solving is solved-the optimum contract of risk sharing. The employee shares some risks through the optimum contract of risk sharing between the enterprise and the employee-when the output is high, the employee's income increases; when the output is low, the income decreases. In order to reduce the risk of the enterprise further, the dealer also shares the risk. To maximize the utility of the enterprise, the Pareto optimum solving is given-another optimum contract of risk. The dealer offers following contract of risk sharing to the enterprise-when the output is high, the dealer receives the repayment; when the output is low, the enterprise is compensated. The enterprise, the employee and the dealer share the risk together, thus the risk of the enterprise is reduced to relatively great degree.     

Application of Multivariate Statistics in Early-warning of Corporation Financial Crisis

This paper is focused on early warning of corporation financial crisis for the China's household electric appliance manufacturers in stock market. Firstly, using company's open-disclosed annual statements as data resource, the financial indexes system is constructed. Secondary, adopting the multivariable statistical analysis method, such as cluster, discriminate and principle component analysis, the multivariate models for the empirical study on early warning of financial crisis by making use of SPSS statistical software are set up. The corporation might discover the financial affairs crisis that shall probably arise beforehand by using the financial affairs crisis early warning system. This study and analysis may serve as reference for domestic industries and enterprises.     

Analysis of Causes and Impacts of Soft Budget Constraints of Enterprises Based on Dynamic Game for Three Players

This paper researches the behavior difference among government,banks and enterprises and how it affects soft budget constraints of enterprises and non-performing loans of banks based with dynamic game.The game model suggests that government will give banks some assistance and let them refinance enterprises,especially government has strong(incentive) to sustain SOEs in China's transitional economy.Banks will do it if the assistance from government is more than the loss from refinance enterprises.In addition the value of liquidation of enterprises and the new loans affect banks' refinancing old enterprises.     

两种有效的预测方法理论分析及实践

预算实际上是一种建模,即根据过去和现在已有的信息建立一个从过去引伸到未来的模型。而时序分析法和灰色系统理论是两种有效的预测方法。为此,介绍了这两种预测方法的原理,并预测了新疆兵团的农机情况。其结果表明:未来10年,新疆农机总动力和投入将会有较大幅度的增长,而农业机械化程度将趋于最高值。     

河道堤防设计高程的概率设计和风

介绍河道堤防设计高程的概率和风险校核方法。该方法综合考虑多种不确定性因素的影响，利用随机微分方程推求河道水位的概率分布，并对风浪的随机影响进行分析，按照随机可靠性理论，对常规采用确定性方法确定的河道堤防高程进行漫顶风险校核和可靠性设计。     

Surface drainage requirement of crops: Application of a piecewise linear model for evaluating submergence tolerance

Crop tolerance to land submergence is an important criterion for designing a surface drainage system for agricultural lands. This paper collates the available data from various places in India related to the studies on the submergence tolerance of crops. The paper hypothesizes that a piecewise linear model could be used to describe crop response to land submergence. According to this hypothesis, there would be no yield decline for a few initial days of submergence. If submergence continues beyond this period then there would be linear decline in yield. The unknown parameters in the model are: optimum yield, threshold time and the slope which represents the per cent yield reduction per day of additional submergence beyond the threshold.Data in respect of wheat, pigeon peas, cowpeas, pearlmillet, maize and groundnuts indicate that the model describes the data well, although in many cases the threshold is 0.0. The yield reduction varies from 5.3 to 23.2% for each day of submergence beyond the threshold. It appears that to allow for more than 1–2 days of submergence will result in more than 10% reducation in yield of dryfoot crops. For the maize crop, the seedling stage is the most sensitive stage followed by the silking stage. The grain formation stage is the least sensitive, although even at this stage the threshold is 0.0 and yield reduction is 9.3% for each day of submergence beyond the threshold. The data for 9 test crops from Texas and Venezuela were well described by the model. It is concluded that the piecewise linear model is a useful tool for describing submergence tolerance of crops and for working out surface drainage requirements for a given level of yield reduction. Frequency analysis of the daily rainfall data from some selected locations indicates that there is every likelihood of submergence at most of the stations. It is suggested that there is an urgent need for developing wet farming techniques analogous to dry farming techniques.