基于案例推理的产品质量安全风险评估研究

为了建立健全产品质量安全风险管理体系，加强产品质量安全风险预警的要求，同时最大程度地利用过去成功的风险评估案例，构建了基于案例推理的产品质量安全风险评估系统。针对某种产品，根据专家的知识建立风险评估指标体系，并将每个评估指标赋权重，计算与案例库中的各个案例相似度，寻找出最大相似度案例，据此，辅助相关人员对目标案例进行风险分析与评估。     

高校辅导员在学生管理中如何防范法律风险

辅导员是学生在校学习期间的管理者和责任人,学生在校期间发生法律纠纷都与辅导员有着间接关系。在传统的高校学生管理过程中,辅导员只是强调了自身对学生的管理权,却忽略了自身可能承担的法律风险,很容易成为法律风险的承担者。随着社会法律体制的不断发展和完善,人们对法律的理解也越来越全面,对法律责任的追究也越来越熟悉,所以在高校学生管理过程中,辅导员应该加强学生管理,提高自身的法律意识,将学生管理的法律风险降到最低。     

Phosphorus availability and farm structural factors: examining scarcity and oversupply in north‐east Germany

Assessing factors influencing phosphorus (P) availability in soils is important in preventing its overexploitation and excessive application in agricultural systems. Despite high historical P applications in the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany), county data on soil test P (STP) reveal considerable disparities in soil available P. In addition, negative soil balances as a result of small mineral P and manure inputs have been observed, raising questions about the factors leading to this situation. Our work focused on identifying possible causes operating at the farm management level by conducting a letter survey in two administrative districts of Brandenburg, the counties Barnim and Uckermark, linking farm management factors (ownership type, farm size, land tenure, animal husbandry with or without grassland and its intensity, presence of a biogas plant and organic production) to farmers’ self‐indicated levels of STP. Small‐ to medium‐sized individual farms tended to have (very) high STP, while large partnership farms and companies/cooperatives were sensitive to factors resulting in low STP. Farms with low shares of land ownership, the presence of grassland, extensive cattle farming and stockless organic farming had lower STP. On the other hand, biogas plants, partly in combination with intensive livestock (cattle) farming, were associated with larger STP. It was concluded that more care should be devoted to the design of agricultural policies and that further (inter‐ and transdisciplinary) research on this topic is needed.     

Prevention and Controlling Effect of Intercropping on Pests and Diseases and Its Risk Control in Cotton Fields

Cotton is one of the major field crops which are seriously threatened by pests and diseases. In recent years, the ecological management of cotton pests and diseases with intercropping has become to be an interesting approach. Intercropping possibly increases the population of natural enemies and finally reduces the population density of pests as a result of changes in ecological structure and environmental conditions of farmland. Intercropping thus has been considered an important alternative in controlling pests and diseases. However, cotton field intercropping also has some limitations in controlling pests and diseases. Unreasonable intercropping system has many risks such as increasing labor input, increasing the difficulty of pests’ control, and aggravating pests and diseases. In this paper, the effects and the underlying mechanisms of cotton intercropping on cotton pests and diseases were reviewed. The possible risks and countermeasures used for ecological control of intercropping were also put forward, and the future and application of ecological management of cotton pests and diseases with intercropping were prospected.     

基于风险与效益模型的政府农业科技投入范围界定

在分析农业科技研发层次与演化流程的基础上,提出了不同研究阶段的农业技术类型和特征,构建了农业科技研发投入风险与效益模型,揭示了政府农业科技投入领域的选择行为,并以此界定了农业科技投入的合理范围。     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

复方中草药添加剂对稻鸭共作模式下成都麻鸭生理效应的影响研究

为研究复方中草药添加剂对稻鸭共作模式下成都麻鸭生长性能、血清生化指标、抗氧化指标及免疫指标的影响,试验选取体重相近、体况健康的15日龄成都麻鸭240只,随机分为4组,每组5个重复,每个重复12只。4组为对照组饲喂基础饲粮;试验1、2、3组在基础饲粮中按照质量比分别添加0.5%(低剂量组)、1%(中剂量组)、2%(高剂量组)的复方中草药,试验期90 d。结果显示:(1)试验1、2、3组的平均日增重分别较对照组提高2.19%、4.34%、4.98%(P<0.05);试验2、3组的料重比分别较对照组降低3.37%、3.63%(P<0.05);(2)试验2组和3组的总蛋白(TP)分别较对照组提高4.20%、6.08%(P<0.05);试验2组和3组的尿素氮(BUN)分别较对照组降低12.72%、16.36%(P<0.05);试验2组和3组的谷草转氨酶(ALT)分别较对照组降低15.84%、19.22%(P<0.05);试验3组的谷丙转氨酶(AST)较对照组降低19.34%(P<0.05);(3)试验2组和3组超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)分别较对照组提高15.80%、20.00%(P<0.05);试验3组的总抗氧化能力(T-AOC)较对照组提高22.37%(P<0.05);(4)三个试验组的IgA、IgM、IgG、IFN-γ、IL-2显著高于对照组(P<0.05),试验2组的肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)较对照组提高10.06%(P<0.05),试验2组和3的组溶菌酶(LZM)分别较对照组提高6.79%、5.66%(P<0.05)。综上,中草药添加剂能有效提高稻鸭共作模式下成都麻鸭的生长性能、血清生化指标、抗氧化指标及免疫指标,本试验条件下,最佳饲喂剂量为1%。     

不同沟垄覆盖下土壤水热效应对旱作马铃薯生长及产量的影响

针对宁南山区春季降雨少、低温不利于马铃薯出苗,而作物生育中后期高温胁迫限制马铃薯块茎形成导致减产等问题,于2016年设置垄覆地膜沟内覆盖塑料地膜(DM)、玉米秸秆(JG)、生物降解膜(SM)、麻纤维地膜(MM)、液态地膜(YM)及沟不覆盖(BM),以传统平作为对照(CK),研究沟垄覆盖模式对土壤温度、土壤水分、旱作马铃薯生长及块茎产量的影响.结果表明:处理DM,SM,MM和YM马铃薯生育期耕层土壤温度表现出增温效应,而处理JG和BM表现为降温效应,其中处理DM增温效果和处理JG降温效果最佳.处理YM,JG对马铃薯生长前期保水效果较好,分别较CK显著提高13.3%,27.0%,而处理JG,DM对生育中后期的保墒效果较佳,分别较CK显著提高22.4%,13.2%.处理JG可显著促进马铃薯生长,其增产效果最为显著,DM次之,分别较CK增产47.8%,44.8%,其他处理较CK差异不具有统计学意义.可见,在宁南山区实施垄覆地膜沟覆秸秆模式可调控土壤水热环境,对旱作马铃薯生长及增产效果最佳.     

Anthropogenically disturbed potentially toxic elements in roadside topsoils of a suburban region of Bishkek,Central Asia

The ecological environment in Central Asia is vulnerable to pressure from human activity due to the physical geography and climatic fragility of this region. A set of indicators suitable for the future assessment of this pressure needs to be proposed. Thirty‐six topsoil samples (0–5 cm) were collected from roadsides in a suburban region of Bishkek, the capital of the Kyrgyz Republic in Central Asia, and a risk assessment of anthropogenically disturbed potentially toxic elements (PTEs) was systematically conducted with classic statistical methods. The results of detrended correspondence analysis and principal component analysis clearly showed that topsoil samples with high contents of PTEs (Pb, Zn and Cu) were strongly affected by traffic within a distance threshold of 200 m and that anthropogenic effects decreased significantly with increasing distance from the highway. The enrichment factor and anthropogenic contribution for Pb were the highest among the three PTEs, with average values of 2.0% and 47.4%, respectively, suggesting enrichment. However, the results of the human health risk assessment also indicated that noncarcinogenic risks did not occur for any of the anthropogenic PTEs. The reported method provides a new systematic pathway to reveal anthropogenic influences on the geochemical composition of soil. The conclusions of this work will be highly valuable as important guidelines for agriculture, and the results of the PTE contents will provide a scientific basis for soil collection in future studies.     

农业供应链金融风险的主要特征与风险防范的基本原则

我国农业供应链突出表现为“集体化”、“现代化”和“生态化”，资金的安全性、流动性和信用程度都需要整体协同管控。交易成本和信息不对称决定了我国农业供应链以间接融资为主，其金融风险的特征主要表现为道德风险突出、整体风险难识别、可能引致区域系统性风险和行业系统性风险。因此，应当因地制宜确定农业供应链金融支持项目，并运用系统论原理控制农业供应链金融风险。