测量食用菌中毒死蜱含量的不确定度评定

采用分层建模方法建立了气相色谱法测定食用菌中毒死蜱含量不确定度评定的数学模型,分析了影响测量标准不确定度结果的各个因素,采用最小二乘法对外标曲线拟合的不确定度进行了评定。计算被测量的合成不确定度和扩展不确定度分别为：0.0286、0.239±0.014 mg/Kg。     

Above- and belowground biomass measurements in an unthinned stand of Sitka spruce (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea sitchensis</Emphasis> (Bong) Carr.)

Reporting carbon (C) stocks in tree biomass (above- and belowground) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) should be transparent and verifiable. The development of nationally specific data is considered ‘good practice’ to assist in meeting these reporting requirements. From this study, biomass functions were developed for estimating above- and belowground C stock in a 19-year-old stand of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong) Carr.). Our estimates were then tested against current default values used for reporting in Ireland and literature equations. Ten trees were destructively sampled to develop aboveground and tree component biomass equations. The roots were excavated and a root:shoot (R) ratio developed to estimate belowground biomass. Application of the total aboveground biomass function yielded a C stock estimate for the stand of 74 tonnes C ha⁻¹, with an uncertainty of 7%. The R ratio was determined to be 0.23, with an uncertainty of 10%. The C stock estimate of the belowground biomass component was then calculated to be 17 tonnes C ha⁻¹, with an uncertainty of 12%. The equivalent C stock estimate from the biomass expansion factor (BEF) method, applying Ireland’s currently reported default values for BEF (inclusive of belowground biomass), wood density and C concentration and methods for estimating volume, was found to be 60 tonnes C ha⁻¹, with an uncertainty of 26%. We found that volume tables, currently used for determining merchantable timber volume in Irish forestry conditions, underestimated volume since they did not extend to the yield of the forest under investigation. Mean stock values for belowground biomass compared well with that generated using published models.     

美国贸易政策不确定性对中国畜产品价格时变冲击效应研究

本文基于2006年1月至2020年11月的中国猪、牛、羊等畜产品价格数据和美国贸易政策不确定性指数,利用带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR模型),考察美国贸易政策不确定性对中国畜产品价格波动的影响。研究发现:美国贸易政策不确定性对不同畜产品价格波动的影响存在阶段性特征,会推动畜产品价格周期性变动。在欧洲债务危机时期、中美贸易蓬勃发展后期、特朗普政府上台初期以及中美贸易摩擦升级时期这四个时期,美国贸易政策不确定性对中国不同畜产品价格波动的影响表现出差异性特征。美国贸易政策不确定性对中国猪肉价格的影响程度最深,对牛肉和羊肉价格冲击程度最小。据此,提出根据美国贸易条件变动预期相机抉择,达到平抑畜产品市场变动的目的,并以猪肉市场稳定为关键,多措并举,发挥市场供求调节能力。     

火焰原子吸收法测定黄豆酱中钠的不确定度评定

[目的]更科学合理地表示微波消解-空气-乙炔火焰原子吸收法测定食品中钠含量的测量结果。[方法]根据JJF1059．1—2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》规范要求,以火焰原子吸收法测定黄豆酱中钠为例对测量不确定度进行评定。[结果]分析表明,影响测量结果的主要因素依次为试剂空白、标准物质和仪器测量时标准曲线的拟合;消解液的定容以及稀释引入的不确定度次之。用该法测得黄豆酱中钠含量为17627mg/kg,扩展不确定度为1128mg／kg（95％,k=2）。[结论]该评价方法及结果对营养标签中钠的准确标示有一定的指导意义。     

不确定性对农业发展的影响及防范策略研究

传统农业面临的不确定性以自然风险为主,但是随着科学技术的发展和产业融合的不断推进,影响农业农村经济的不确定性因素也不断增多。本文从分析我国农业面临不确定性的成因及特点出发,提出构建一个包括农民个体、国家政府、保险机构在内的多层次风险防范体系,通过多层次风险防范体系有效抵御和转移农业风险给我国农业发展带来的危害,帮助实现脱贫攻坚和全面建成小康社会的预期目标。     

原子荧光光谱法测定肉类罐头中总砷含量不确定度的评定

以咸牛肉罐头为例,分析了整个测量过程产生的不确定度,及产生不确定度的主要来源,为有效地控制用该方法测定肉类罐头中总砷含量提供可靠的理论依据。     

Conservation policies and planning under climate change

Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two policy objectives focusing on (1) the protection on current (native) species, and (2) all species, including immigrating species. The trade-offs between the protection of native species versus all species is illustrated. The study shows that the development of prediction models of future species distributions as the basis of decision rules can be crucial for ensuring the effectiveness of conservation plans. Finally, it is discussed how more adaptive strategies, that allow for the redirection of resources from protected sites to privately-owned sites, may increase the effectiveness of the conservation networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics.     

乏信息材料布氏硬度测量不确定度蒙特卡罗评定

应用蒙转卡罗方法实现小样本材料布氏硬度测量不确定度的评定.依据测量误差源标定数据或布氏硬度测量结果两种数据处理途径,分析已知数据的概率分布特性,通过产生大样本量的随机数进行仿真,拓宽数据样本空间,进而分别依据不确定度合成和贝塞尔公式计算出乏信息材料布氏硬度测量不确定度.通过具体的测量实例验证了本方法的可行性.     

A semi-empirical model to assess uncertainty of spatial patterns of erosion

Distributed erosion models are potentially good tools for locating soil sediment sources and guiding efficient Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) planning, but the uncertainty of model predictions may be high. In this study, the distribution of erosion within a catchment was predicted with a semi-empirical erosion model that combined a semi-distributed hydrological model with the Morgan, Morgan and Finney (MMF) empirical erosion model. The model was tested in a small catchment of the West Usambara Mountains (Kwalei catchment, Tanzania). Soil detachability rates measured in splash cups (0.48–1.16 g J^− 1) were close to model simulations (0.30–0.35 g J^− 1). Net erosion rates measured in Gerlach troughs (0.01–1.05 kg m^− 2 per event) were used to calibrate the sediment transport capacity of overland flow. Uncertainties of model simulations due to parameterisation of overland flow sediment transport capacity were assessed with the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The quality of the spatial predictions was assessed by comparing the simulated erosion pattern with the field-observed erosion pattern, measuring the agreement with the weighted Kappa coefficient of the contingency table. Behavioural parameter sets (weighted Kappa > 0.50) were those with short reinfiltration length (< 1.5 m) and ratio of overland flow power α to local topography power γ close to 0.5. In the dynamic Hortonian hydrologic regime and the dissected terrain of Kwalei catchment, topography controlled the distribution of erosion more than overland flow. Simulated erosion rates varied from − 4 to + 2 kg m^− 2 per season. The model simulated correctly around 75% of erosion pattern. The uncertainty of model predictions due to sediment transport capacity was high; around 10% of the fields were attributed to either slight or severe erosion. The difficult characterisation of catchment-scale effective sediment transport capacity parameters poses a major limit to distributed erosion modelling predicting capabilities.     

原子荧光法测定纸质食品接触材料中砷的不确定度评定

[目的]评定原子荧光法测定纸质食品接触材料中砷的不确定度。[方法]根据相关不确定度标准及规范要求,以测定一次性纸杯中砷含量为例对原子荧光法方法的测量不确定度进行评定。[结果]分析表明,影响测量结果的主要因素依次为拟合标准曲线的过程和重复测量;标准物质的不确定度次之;消解液的定容和样品称量的不确定度相比上述3项可以忽略。该法测得一次性纸杯中砷的含量为0.39 mg/kg,扩展不确定度为0.016 mg/kg(95%,k=2)。[结论]该评价过程及结果对日常检测中提高测量结果的准确性有一定的指导意义。