基于改进GM(1,N)模型的我国大豆价格影响因素分析及预测研究

大豆是我国重要的粮食作物和油料作物,其价格对于国民经济尤其是农业经济的影响意义深远。大豆价格的稳定对于我国大豆市场的健康发展有着重要的现实意义。在灰色理论的基础上,提出了一种改进GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型,首先运用灰色关联分析法对我国大豆价格的影响因素进行分析,选择主要的影响因素;再将这些影响因素作为模型的相关因素变量,构建GM(1,N)大豆价格预测模型。采用2010-2015年的大豆数据进行实证研究,模型选取国内大豆自给量、世界大豆产量、国民消费价格指数、消费者信心指数4个变量作为相关因素变量;模型预测误差为2.10%,预测精度较高,能够较好地掌握大豆价格的变化规律,可以为大豆价格市场预测及国家宏观政策的制定提供理论指导。     

Death of a neonatal lamb due to Clostridium perfringens type B in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Case history and clinical findings: A flock of 20 sheep was kept within three paddocks on a single property. None of the animals in the flock had been vaccinated against any disease for at least three years. Abdominal bloating and haemorrhagic diarrhoea were observed in Lamb 1 at 24 hours-of-age. The lamb subsequently died within an hour of the onset of clinical signs. Lamb 2 was 3-days-old when observed to be recumbent with opisthotonus. The lamb was treated with dextrose, vitamins B1 and B12, and penicillin G, but died 4 hours later.

Pathological findings: Examination of Lamb 1 revealed markedly increased gas within the peritoneum and within dilated loops of intestine. The intestines were dark red and contained large quantities of haemorrhagic fluid. Histology of the intestines revealed peracute mucosal necrosis with minimal accompanying inflammation. The intestinal lumen contained cell debris, haemorrhage, and myriad large Gram-positive bacilli. The intestines of Lamb 2 did not appear bloated or reddened. However, multiple fibrin clots were visible within the pericardial sac. Histopathological examination revealed small foci of necrosis within the mucosa of the distal intestine. The necrotic foci were often associated with large numbers of large Gram-positive bacilli.

Immunohistochemsitry and molecular biology: Intestinal samples from Lamb 1 were processed for Clostridium perfringens immunohistochemistry, which revealed large numbers of intralesional, positively immunostained rods. Fragments corresponding to the expected sizes for genes encoding alpha, beta, and epsilon C. perfringens typing toxins were amplified by PCR from DNA extracted from formalin-fixed sections of intestine.

Diagnosis: Lamb dysentery due to C. perfringens type B.

Clinical relevance: C. perfringens bacteria have a worldwide distribution, but disease due to C. perfringens type B has only been diagnosed in a small number of countries and has never been reported in New Zealand or Australia. C. perfringens type B produce both beta toxin and epsilon toxins, therefore both haemorrhagic enteritis and systemic vascular damage can develop. As many animals are exposed to C. perfringens without developing disease, there must be additional unknown factors that resulted in disease in these particular sheep. Vaccines that specifically protect against C. perfringens type B are available and may be recommended for use in smaller non-commercial flocks, as in the present case.     

川渝地区地方和育成大豆品种SSR标记多样性分析?

利用基本均匀分布于大豆20条染色体的135对SSR标记，对232份包括6个地方品种地域亚群和1个育成品种亚群进行全基因组扫描。结果表明：所有的标记都有多态性，所有检测到的位点都是纯合基因型，说明所选用品种高度纯合，每个标记存在2～4个等位变异，平均2.66个。亚群多态信息含量变异范围0.2751-0.3165，整个群体为0.3208；亚群内Nei遗传距离变异范围0.325 8～0.359 4，整个群体为0.3711，说明川渝地区大豆遗传变异较小。亚群间的遗传一致度（GI ≥ 0.8862）较高，亚群间遗传距离（GD ≤ 0.1208）较小，地方品种亚群间遗传差异更小，育成品种亚群与自然地域亚群的遗传差异相对较大。亚群间基因分化系数（Fst）平均为 0.0722，基因流（Nm）平均为 3.214，说明不同亚群之间存在一定的基因交流。主坐标分析表明第一、二和三主成分分别解释总变异的4.97%、3.54%和3.33%。来自同一区域的品种资源基本聚集在同一亚群，聚类分析同样表明同一自然地域亚群品种资源虽不能完全聚集到同一个遗传类群中，但具有一定的聚集效应，说明川渝大豆品种资源遗传变异与地理位置有一定的关系。分子方差分析表明亚群内变异占总变异的97%，亚群间变异仅占总变异的3%。Mantel收敛分析表明地方品种自然地域亚群的遗传距离与所处的地理位置距离（纬度和海拔）呈显著的正相关关系（R2=0.723）。川渝地区大豆种质资源群体遗传丰富度不高，当前的育成品种未蕴含本地区所有遗传变异。     

大豆种间杂交F_2代主要品质性状遗传研究初报

以栽培大豆铁豆67为母本,半野生大豆YZ1621为父本,进行有性杂交,构建大豆种间杂交F2代遗传群体,对群体蛋白质含量、脂肪含量及蛋脂总量等遗传参数进行了分析。结果表明:大豆种间杂交F2代蛋白质含量、脂肪含量及蛋脂总量的遗传分离为连续离散分布,符合正态分布,其中,脂肪含量和蛋脂总量表现出倾向高值亲本的正态分布;三性状超中亲遗传普遍存在,蛋脂总量超高亲遗传显著,超高亲比例达到66.7%;三性状的遗传方差、标准差均较小,变异系数分别为4.04%、5.13%、2.67%,表明群体内个体间的变异度不高;三性状广义遗传力均达到了55.0%以上。     

大豆突变体库构建研究进展

大豆突变体库是大豆农艺性状变异的重要来源,可以作为选育新品种资源和大豆基因功能研究的基础。综述了几种常用大豆突变体库的构建方法及其构建特点和应用范围,介绍了一些突变体库构建的新方法及其优缺点,并对这些新方法在大豆突变体库构建应用中进行了展望,为大豆育种实践和基因功能研究拓宽思路和提供参考。     

Genetic analysis and QTL mapping of growth period traits and plant height traits in soybean recombinant inbred lines from Dongnong 47 × PI 317334-B

High and stable yield is the main goal of soybean genetic improvement. In this study, association analysis was used to detect the quantitative trait loci (QTL) for the plant height, and soybean growth period using 182 SSR markers in the RIL population of 136 F_4:8 lines, which developed from a cross between photoperiod-insensitive cultivar ‘Dongnong 47’ and photoperiod-sensitive variety PI317334–B. The results showed that 33 QTLs related to soybean growth period and plant height traits were detected by compound interval mapping, and were located on 12 linkage groups including N, C1, C2, J, D1a, B2, E, G, A2, O, L, I, with the contribution rate of 7.85–33.84%. These QTL loci and linkage markers related to soybean photoperiod sensitivity, would be helpful to identify key genes that control soybean photoperiod sensitivity, and provide an important basis for the breeding of new photoperiod-insensitive soybean varieties based on molecular design breeding.     

Greater humification of belowground than aboveground biomass carbon into particulate soil organic matter in no-till corn and soybean crops

Quantifying the amount of carbon (C) incorporated from decomposing residues into soil organic carbon (C_S) requires knowing the rate of C stabilization (humification rate) into different soil organic matter pools. However, the differential humification rates of C derived from belowground and aboveground biomass into C_S pools has been poorly quantified. We estimated the contribution of aboveground and belowground biomass to the formation of C_S in four agricultural treatments by measuring changes in δ¹³C natural abundance in particulate organic matter (C_POM) associated with manipulations of C₃ and C₄ biomass. The treatments were (1) continuous corn cropping (C₄ plant), (2) continuous soybean cropping (C₃), and two stubble exchange treatments (3 and 4) where the aboveground biomass left after the grain harvest was exchanged between corn and soybean plots, allowing the separation of aboveground and belowground C inputs to C_S based on the different δ¹³C signatures. After two growing seasons, C_POM was primarily derived from belowground C inputs, even though they represented only ∼10% of the total plant C inputs as residues. Belowground biomass contributed from 60% to almost 80% of the total new C present in the C_POM in the top 10 cm of soil. The humification rate of belowground C inputs into C_POM was 24% and 10%, while that of aboveground C inputs was only 0.5% and 1.0% for soybean and corn, respectively. Our results indicate that roots can play a disproportionately important role in the C_POM budget in soils. Keywords Particulate organic matter; root carbon inputs; carbon isotopes; humification rate; corn; soybean.     

改进RBF神经网络在我国大豆价格预测中的应用研究

我国大豆价格受国内外多种因素共同影响,具有非线性、随机性和高噪音等特点,采用传统数学模型进行预测,不仅分析难度大,预测误差也很大。RBF神经网络以其优良的逼近性能而被广泛应用于非线性时间序列预测之中。本文提出一种基于遗传算法优化RBF神经网络的我国大豆价格预测模型,该模型为多维输入单维输出的多变量预测模型,模型的初始输入由大豆价格的历史数据和相关影响因素数据组成。采用遗传算法对RBF神经网络输入层节点数、基函数中心、扩展常数和输出层权值进行优化,模型可以从初始输入变量中自主选择最合适的输入变量组合作为模型的输入。采用2009-2014年的大豆价格数据进行预测研究,用2009-2013年的数据作为训练集,2014年的数据作为测试集,改进RBF神经网络通过自主识别和选取中国大豆进口量、中国消费者信心指数和进口大豆到港分销价格3个因素作为相关影响因素的输入。结果表明:模型预测精度较高、泛化能力较强,能够很好捕捉大豆价格变化规律,可为大豆市场价格的准确预报提供参考借鉴。     

吉育系列大豆品种生育期组的划分研究

为明确吉育系列大豆品种的生育期组(maturity group,MG)归属,促进不同区域间的科学引种,以15份美国大豆生育期组标准品种为对照,采用以对照品种的生育日数为参照标准和以品种的活动积温为划分标准两种方法,于2013和2014年对95份新近选育的吉育系列大豆品种进行了生育期组划分研究。结果表明:吉育系列品种生育期组介于MG0~MGⅢ组之间,居MGⅡ组的品种最多,MGⅢ组的品种最少。有89份参试材料按两种划分方法结果一致,占参试材料的93.7%;有6份参试材料的两种划分方法结果不在同一组内,占参试材料的6.3%。通过比较各生育期组品种在R1、R7和R8期的持续天数表现,验证了生育期组划分的正确性。综合两年试验结果发现,适宜吉林省大面积种植的早熟、中早熟大豆品种主要归属于MG0和MGⅠ组,中熟、中晚熟品种主要归属于MGⅡ。此研究结果为完善中国大豆生育期组划分系统和实现大豆品种布局的科学化与标准化提供了技术依据。