Model averaging for genome‐enabled prediction with reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces: a case study with pig litter size and wheat yield

Predictive ability of yet‐to‐be observed litter size (pig) grain yield (wheat) records of several reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) regression models combining different number of Gaussian or t kernels was evaluated. Predictive performance was assessed as the average (over 50 replicates) predictive correlation in the testing set. Predictions from these models were combined using three different types of model averaging: (i) mean of predicted phenotypes obtained in each model, (ii) weighted average using mean squared error as weight or (iii) using the marginal likelihood as weight. (ii) and (iii) were obtained in a validation set with 5% of the data. Phenotypes consisted of 2598, 1604 and 1879 average litter size records from three commercial pig lines and wheat grain yield of 599 lines evaluated in four macro‐environments. SNPs from the PorcineSNP60 BeadChip and 1447 DArT markers were used as predictors for the pig and wheat data analyses, respectively. Gaussian and univariate t kernels led to same predictive performance. Multikernel RKHS regression models overcame shortcomings of single kernel models (increasing the predictive correlation of RKHS models by 0.05 where 3 Gaussian or t kernels were fitted in the RKHS models simultaneously). None of the proposed averaging strategies improved the predictive correlations attained with single models using multiple kernel fitting.     

平凉市肉牛产业生态经济系统分析及预测

[目的]为进一步完善和优化平凉市肉牛产业生态经济系统结构,协调和理顺系统关系,提高系统功能和效益,促进系统保持持续、稳定、协调、高效发展。[方法]运用系统分析法和热力学定律,描述和分析了系统的结构和功能。[结果]从系统调控的角度提出平凉市肉牛产业系统应围绕产业配置资源,合理调控产业要素（环境、结构、技术、投入）,释放肉牛产业内在活力,形成种、养、加一体化,产-供-销一条龙的多结构、多功能、多出路的经济发展模式。[结论]依系统现状展望未来发展趋势,最终达到生产、生态、经济、社会效益的良性循环和可持续发展。     

“3S”技术在草地鼠虫害监测与预测中的应用

日益严重的草地鼠虫害,己成为引发草原退化、沙化、水土流失的重要因素之一,并威胁我国草地畜牧业的可持续发展。"3S"技术作为一种综合性技术手段,具有探测范围广、信息量大、成本低、受地面条件限制和人为因素影响小等特点,可实现对各种空间信息和环境信息的快速、机动、准确、可靠的收集、处理与更新。这一技术与地面调查资料的结合,不仅加快了对草地资源的宏观监测速度,而且能够快速、准确地反映草地鼠虫害的变化动态。结合鼠虫害发生的特点,重点概述了运用"3S"技术对草地鼠虫害进行监测的原理、方法及存在的问题,并分析了该领域未来的研究重点和"3S"技术的应用前景。     

Analysis on Target Genes with Mutation in microRNA of Blue-shelled Chicken and White Leghorn

The study was conducted to explore the potential different characters between Blue-shelled chicken and White leghorn.Global genome microRNA was combined the identified microRNA with complementary lab-predicted microRNA.Then the two breed chicken's SNP data got by GGRS were mapped to the microRNA and focused on SNP that deliberately located in mature-microRNA.Bioinformatics method was adopted for target prediction on microRNA which had SNPs.By further gene enrichment analysis,the study found these genes enriched in 22 GO terms,10 KEGG pathways,and 3 IPA important networks.And they enriched in traits which associated with growth,such as mTOR signaling pathways,Wnt signaling pathways,growth hormone receptor networks and insulin-like growth factor Ⅰ receptor networks.And they also enriched in some laying traits,such as oocyte meiotic signaling pathways and progesterone mature oocytes signaling pathways.The methods and the results might provide references for further studies.     

优化运行理论在泵站综合自动化系统中的应用

利用改进的神经元网络构建了泵站流量以及效率预测模型，并利用改进的遗传算法构建了泵站优化模型。将这两个模型应用到泵站综合自动化系统中，可以完成对泵站流量及效率的准确预测，并在此基础上实现泵站的优化运行。讨论了泵站优化运行理论在泵站综合自动化系统中应用的步骤和方法。     

土壤水蚀模型中的融雪侵蚀模拟研究

在季节性或常年积雪地区,春季积雪融化产生的径流及其造成的侵蚀占全年总侵蚀量的比例很大,同时反复进行的冻融过程会影响土壤的物理性质,如团聚体稳定性、水分传导率、抗剪切力、可蚀性等,进而加重土壤侵蚀。因此在这些地区进行融雪侵蚀预报十分必要,它主要包括融雪径流的产生,及其形成的土壤侵蚀量,冻融过程导致土壤性状的变化,以及由此造成的对土壤可蚀性的影响。本研究总结了国内外融雪侵蚀的研究现状,并分析了几个代表性土壤水蚀预报模型中的融雪侵蚀过程,提出我国部分地区土壤侵蚀模型中考虑融雪侵蚀的必要性。     

基于人工神经网络的PV/T热电联供系统性能预测

为研究太阳能PV/T热电联供系统的性能和针对太阳能PV/T系统复杂的能量平衡方程,搭建了太阳能PV/T系统试验台,同时建立了基于改进灰狼优化的BP神经网络(back propagation neural network model based on improved grey wolf algorithm, IGWO-BP)预测模型,在晴朗天气下进行试验,并采用该模型对系统电功率以及蓄热水箱内水温进行预测。结果显示,晴朗日系统的电效率8.7%～12.2%、热效率51.7%;预测结果与BP神经网络预测模型、基于粒子群优化的BP神经网络(back propagation neural network based on particle swarm optimization, PSO-BP)预测模型和卷积神经网络（convolutional neural network, CNN）预测模型预测结果进行比较,结果显示IGWO-BP预测模型电效率预测模型的绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error, MAPE)、决定系数(determination coefficient, R ² )、均方根误差(root mean square error, RMSE)、效率因子(efficient factor, EF)和Pearson相关系数(pearson related coefficient, r )分别为4.5E-05、0.99、0.24、0.99和1.00,在储热罐温度预测中,上述指标分别为8.90E-04、0.98、0.07、0.98、0.99,均优于其他预测模型,IGWO-BP神经网络预测模型具有更好的预测性能。研究结果可为太阳能PV/T热电联供系统性能预测与优化控制提供参考。     

浙江淳安千岛湖茶叶批发市场发育状况调查

本文以浙江淳安千岛玉叶茶叶批发市场实地考察为基础,从市场交易规模、交易形式、经营者状况、市场辐射面、市场商品组成、市场价格形成、市场流通方式等多方面对该市场发育状况进行了分析,最后对其发展前景进行了预测。     

长白山森林生态系统主要功能的经济价值及恢复措施

研究长白山森林生态系统主要功能的经济价值，并找出森林生态系统功能的变化及原因。采取有效措施，保护长白山生物多样性和独特的地质地貌景观，恢复森林生态系统，实施长白山生态保护建设工程，发挥生态系统整体功能。