甘肃金塔县种植业结构对气候变暖的响应

为了研究地处西北极端干旱区脆弱气候带的甘肃金塔种植业结构对气候变暖的响应,利用金塔气象站1971—2012 年地面气象观测资料,采用温度距平时间序列及线性趋势拟合等方法,对年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和≥10℃积温变化趋势进行分析。结果表明,近42 年来金塔县年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈波动上升趋势,≥10℃积温呈明显的增加趋势;金塔县种植业结构对气候变暖的响应明显：20 世纪70 年代中期—90 年代中期,当地主栽农作物以粮食作物为主,1998年粮食、棉花等经济作物种植结构发生了根本性变化,进入21 世纪以来,农作物种植面积的布局顺序改变为棉花等经济作物、粮食。由此可得：气候变暖对金塔种植业结构改变有重大影响。     

1961—2013年吉林省气温与降水变化特征

为了研究吉林省气候变化现状,根据1961—2013年20个气象站的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温及降水量的年、月数据资料,采用线性分析、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验、空间插值等方法对吉林省气温和降水量变化特征进行分析。结果表明:近53年吉林省年平均气温变化在3.25~6.63℃之间,存在显著的上升趋势,倾向率为0.286℃/10 a,并在1986年发生突变。季节气温变化中冬季增温最明显。吉林省气温受海拔影响较大,其中中西部平原地区和敦化、靖宇两地为平均气温增温最明显地区。年降水量变化在489.28~825.26 mm之间,整体呈微增长态势,倾向率为0.5 mm/10 a,突变年份为1987年。季节降水量变化趋势较为平缓,主要表现出春冬增长、夏秋减少的趋势差异。年降水量减少较明显地区为吉林省的西北部和长白山地区,而松花江流域则表现出明显的增长趋势。吉林省气候整体表现出有暖干化的趋势。     

气候变化背景下陕西关中西部作物气候生产潜力变化特征

为了研究气候变化背景下关中西部作物气候生产潜力变化规律,选用宝鸡市11个气象站1961—2010年温度、降水等气象资料,应用Tuynthwhite Memoral模式计算分析宝鸡地区作物气候生产力状况及其变化趋势。结果表明：关中西部气候生产力呈递减趋势;年及各季平均气温均呈明显上升趋势,降水量呈下降趋势;气候暖干化使作物气候生产潜力以35.69 kg/(hm²·10 a)的速率波动下降,降水是主要限制因子;气候生产力利用率平均为34.8%,作物生产有较大的发展潜力;未来气候情景下,“暖湿型”气候对区域作物生产最有利,平均增产幅度8.5%~22.5%,而“冷干型”气候对作物生产最不利,平均减产幅度为5.7%~20.8%。     

Temperature Before Cold Acclimation Affects Cold Tolerance and Photoacclimation in Timothy (Phleum pratense L.), Perennial Ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) and Red Clover (Trifolium pratense L.)

The expected temperature rise in late summer/early autumn can change the conditions for acclimation and affect the winter survival of perennial crops. This study examined the effect of the temperature just before the onset of cold acclimation (pre‐acclimation) on freezing tolerance of timothy (Phleum pratense L.), perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) and red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) populations (both cultivars and breeding populations) adapted to either northern or southern parts of Norway. Using phytotron experiments, we studied whether increasing pre‐acclimation temperature delays growth cessation, affects photoacclimation and reduces freezing tolerance. Furthermore, we assessed whether these effects were related to the latitudinal adaptation of the plant material. The results showed that a rise in pre‐acclimation temperature decreased both cold acclimation capacity and photoacclimation in these species. This affected the freezing tolerance, which was reduced significantly more in northern‐adapted population of timothy and perennial ryegrass compared with southern‐adapted populations. Red clover was less affected by temperature changes than the grasses.     

华莱士瓜含糖率农业气象指标与气候品质评价

华莱士瓜含糖率农业气象指标体系,是定量评价其品质优劣的基础,更是华莱士瓜农业气象业务服务的基础。在解释华莱士瓜农业气象指标内涵的基础上,参照华莱士瓜农业气象指标体系构建的通则,综合农业气象指标研究方法的优缺点,确定关键生育期温度、水分、湿度、蒸发等农业气象指标。20个通过0.01显著水平检验的因子,6个通过0.05显著水平检验的因子。所选因子生物学意义与农业气象学意义明显,符合生产实际。将所有指标划分为最适宜、次适宜、不适宜。便于农业气象服务工作开展。评估模型通过0.01的显著性检验,拟合率达94.4%,拟合效果较好,可用于华莱士瓜品质评估。     

全球气候变化对中国农业的影响

本文概述了全球气候变化对中国农业可能产生的影响,认为其影响是弊大于利。     

新一代温室气体排放情景下安徽省未来气候变化预估分析

基于联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的新一代排放情景,和中国气象局发布的"中国地区气候变化预估数据集V3.0",针对安徽省,笔者选择1971—2000年作为基准期,采用区域气候模式模拟的方法,对比分析安徽省未来气候变化特征,重点评估近期内即未来20年气候变化趋势。模拟结果显示,未来20年不同情景下安徽省平均气温均为上升,全省平均增温幅度约0.9~1.1℃;而降水量变化具有不同特征,较低排放情景下降水量以上升为主,高排放情景则以下降为主。到2050s全省平均气温相比于基准期将升高1.6~1.7℃,升温幅度呈现北高南低的特征;全省降水量相比于基准期将下降50~90 mm,各地降水量均呈下降趋势。另外,通过对降水和气温的模拟,预估未来该地区旱涝演替更加频繁,高温热浪等事件也将进一步频发。     

Variation in cooking and eating quality traits in Japanese rice germplasm accessions

The eating quality of cooked rice is important and determines its market price and consumer acceptance. To comprehensively describe the variation of eating quality in 183 rice germplasm accessions, we evaluated 33 eating-quality traits including amylose and protein contents, pasting properties of rice flour, and texture of cooked rice grains. All eating-quality traits varied widely in the germplasm accessions. Principal-components analysis (PCA) revealed that allelic differences in the Wx gene explained the largest proportion of phenotypic variation of the eating-quality traits. In 146 accessions of non-glutinous temperate japonica rice, PCA revealed that protein content and surface texture of the cooked rice grains significantly explained phenotypic variations of the eating-quality traits. An allelic difference based on simple sequence repeats, which was located near a quantitative trait locus (QTL) on the short arm of chromosome 3, was associated with differences in the eating quality of non-glutinous temperate japonica rice. These results suggest that eating quality is controlled by genetic factors, including the Wx gene and the QTL on chromosome 3, in Japanese rice accessions. These genetic factors have been consciously selected for eating quality during rice breeding programs in Japan.     

山西忻州地区植物物候与气候变化特征分析

摘要：本文利用了忻州市、五台县的气象和物候资料,并运用距平分析法、回归分析法、M-K突变分析法,分析其特征。结果显示,1）忻州、五台两个农业气象站点,年平均气温冷暖交替变化,年降水量逐年减小。2）两个农业气象站的植物,春季物候期均呈提前趋势。秋季物候期表现不一致,忻州市秋季物候期的平均倾向率为1.29d/a,整体趋势表现为推迟;五台县的秋季物候期,因紫丁香提前趋势相对较大,故总体呈提前趋势。3）植物物候期与气温变化的相关性较大,而年降水量对其变化的影响较为微弱。从植物物候期突变时间可看出,其与气温、降水突变时间同步或紧随其后,且对气温的小幅变化反应敏感。     

Social vulnerability to climate‐induced natural disasters: Cross‐provincial evidence from Vietnam

This paper conducts an analysis of the socioeconomic determinants of Vietnam's cross‐provincial variations in natural disaster vulnerability. The purpose is twofold: (i) to capture disaggregated vulnerability variations normally obscured by national statistics, thereby providing more nuanced insights into Vietnam's vulnerability to natural disasters; and (ii) to take advantage of the fact that the overall political system and key institutional structures to a large extent are constant across Vietnam's provinces, which makes the analysis a novel addition to the many disaster studies based on cross‐national variations. The paper's analysis indicates that much of Vietnam's cross‐provincial variations in natural disaster fatalities and economic costs can be explained by differences in key socioeconomic factors. High provincial rates of inequality, poverty and infant mortality, for instance, appear to drive up natural disaster fatalities. Local adaptation efforts should focus as much on these broader socioeconomic dimensions as they focus on the geophysical susceptibility to natural hazards of individual areas.