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The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system. 相似文献
64.
Morphological and Physiological Responses of Plantain (Plantago lanceolata) and Chicory (Cichorium intybus) to Water Stress and Defoliation Frequency
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L. M. Cranston P. R. Kenyon S. T. Morris N. Lopez‐Villalobos P. D. Kemp 《Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science》2016,202(1):13-24
Plants are often subjected to periods of water stress. There are little data examining the effect of water stress on the forage species Plantago lanceolata and Cichorium intybus. In two pot experiments with P. lanceolata and C. intybus, morphological responses under optimum, dry, and very‐dry water treatments with weekly, fortnightly and 3‐weekly defoliation intervals and physiological responses under optimum and very‐dry water treatments were measured. A third experiment compared the rooting depths of P. lanceolata and C. intybus under field conditions. These findings suggest that both P. lanceolata and C. intybus can survive and continue to grow under water stress conditions with the main differences between the two species being attributable to morphological characteristics (root mass, taproot diameter and shoot mass fraction) rather than differences at a physiological level. Overall, the results suggest plantain may be more productive under moderate drought due to its greater shoot mass fraction, whereas chicory may be more productive and persistent under severe drought due to its greater root mass, taproot diameter and root depth under field conditions. 相似文献
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从非线性角度研究期锌市场,运用R/S分析法对期锌市场进行分析,发现期锌市场的Hurst指数为0.6183,其价格收益率序列是分维时间序列,具有分形结构,维数为1.6174。期锌市场的平均周期长度为176天,具有强持续性和相关性。关联系数为19.47%,远远大于国外相关市场。在风险方面,期锌市场的风险比期铜市场的要小,而比股票市场的风险要大。 相似文献
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采用CFD方法研究全尺寸双曲冷却塔表面混凝土粗糙度对风压系数的影响.在规范规定的粗糙度范围内,分别对表面混凝土光滑以及表面混凝土有不同粗糙度高度的冷却塔全尺寸模型进行了数值模拟.将不同工况下的风压系数计算值与以往文献的风洞试验和现场实测数据进行了比较.研究结果表明:冷却塔全尺寸CFD模拟虽然解决了雷诺数相似问题,但纯粹的光滑壁面冷却塔在CFD计算中得到的平均风压系数比实际值偏离较大;在冷却塔全尺寸CFD模拟中必须考虑实际冷却塔表面的粗糙度对其平均风压系数的影响. 相似文献
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The present investigation was conducted to assess the ameliorative effects of foliar‐applied trehalose on growth, photosynthetic attributes, water relation parameters and oxidative defence mechanism in two maize cultivars under field water deficit conditions. Various components of the experiment comprised two maize cultivars (EV‐1098 and Agaiti‐2002), two water‐stress levels (irrigation after 2 weeks and irrigation after 3 weeks during the entire period of growth), and two levels of trehalose (0 and 30 mm ) and four replicates of each treatment. Water stress significantly reduced the plant biomass production, photosynthetic attributes and water relation parameters in both maize cultivars. In contrast, water stress considerably increased the leaf malondialdehyde (MDA) contents, the activities of antioxidant enzymes such as peroxidase (POD), superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT), and the levels of non‐enzymatic compounds such as ascorbic acid and tocopherols. In contrast, water stress caused a marked reduction in leaf phenolic contents. Foliar‐applied trehalose significantly increased plant biomass production, and improved some key photosynthetic attributes and plant–water relation parameters. The ameliorative effect of exogenously applied trehalose was also observed on the activities of some key antioxidant enzymes (POD and CAT) and non‐enzymatic compounds (tocopherols and phenolics). Overall, exogenously applied trehalose considerably improved drought tolerance of maize plants by up‐regulating photosynthetic and water relation attributes as well as antioxidant defence mechanism. 相似文献
68.
Increasing planting density is important to raise maize yield, however, high density often leads to an increase risk of lodging due to dense canopy and weak stem. Maize yield and optimal plant density are increased by applying plant growth regulator compound of ethephon and DA-6, however, we do not know if this compound would interact with location and genotype. In this study, a novel plant growth regulator, as the synthesis of N, N- diethyl − 2 − hexanoyl oxygen radicals − ethyl amine (2-ethyl chloride) phosphonic acid salt (DHEAP), combining the effects of ethephon and DA-6 in one chemical, was developed and tested at three locations, five plant densities (6.75, 8.25, 9.75, 11.25 and 12.75 plants m−2) and three cultivars in 2014–2015. This study aimed to quantify the interactions between environment, genotype and management (Appling DHEAP and plant density) on lodging-related optimal plant density and yield. DHEAP significantly increased grain yield by 10.7% due to the increases of kernel weight by 3.2% and kernel number per ear by 4.4%. On average across genotypes and environments, applying DHEAP increased optimum plant density by 6%. The optimal plant density interacted with cultivar, DHEAP and environment. Applying DHEAP reduced lodging percentage by lowering ear height. The yield-lodging relationship was affected by genotype and location. We concluded that maize yield could be enhanced by optimizing plant density, applying DHEAP and cultivar selection, but climatic and environmental differences of locations should be considered. 相似文献
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以杉木老龄林群落为研究对象,结合对数级数和对数正态分布模型,建立3 600 m2的大样地分析杉木老龄林群落的种-多度关系。结果表明:样方的平均物种数和个体数分别为6.86种和35.75株,各样方的物种数及个体数存在极显著正相关关系,说明杉木老龄林群落中生境空间对物种个体的承载能力,还未限制其物种数量。个体数-种序(p>0.05)和频度-种序(p>0.05)的分布曲线均符合对数级数分布;对数正态分布模型则能够较好拟合个体数-种序(p>0.05)的分布曲线,但频度-种序(p<0.05)的分布曲线则不适合用该模型来解释。随着尺度的增加,物种数和个体数的变异系数、二者间的相关性及物种数的方差逐步下降,个体数的方差却呈上升的趋势。 相似文献