对我国LULUCF碳计量监测方法的探讨

围绕我国林业编制温室气体清单这一重要工作,介绍了IPCC关于LULUCF温室气体清单编制系列技术指南的技术要点和要求,阐明了我国林业温室气体清单编制工作的进展,提出了林业开展LULUCF碳监测工作未来面临的需求。同时,在分析美国、欧盟、加拿大等发达国家LULUCF温室气体清单编制做法和经验的基础上,提出了"在森林资源清查样地系统上构建"、"新布设LULUCF大样地系统"等2种开展LULUCF碳监测的思路,目的是为推动我国林业LULUCF碳监测达到国际先进水平提供建议。     

营业税改征增值税的税率评估——基于可计算一般均衡模型的研究

营业税改征增值税是完善我国税制的一个重要举措，确定各个产业部门改征增值税后的税率是其中一个关键的环节。运用可计算一般均衡模型可以评估营业税改征增值税之后不同税率的选择对宏观经济和产业结构的影响。政策模拟的结果显示，目前正在实施的营业税改征增值税的试点方案权衡了对财政收入和经济增长以及经济结构的影响，是对经济运行影响较小的稳健选择。     

The Influence of Organic and Integrated Production on Nutritional,Sensory and Agricultural Aspects of Vegetable Raw Materials for Food Production

In a six-year crop rotation trial organically and integrated grown vegetables were produced according to current good agricultural practices, taking quality and quantity aspects into consideration. The raw materials assessed focussed on materials used for industrial food production. Nutritional, sensory and agricultural aspects were evaluated. Carrot, cabbage, onion, pea and potato are possible to grow organically for industrial purposes. Depending on crop, the yield was lower (65-90%) for organically grown compared to integrated grown. Cultivation of organic spinach and dill turned out to be difficult due to problems with weed and discoloration. The chemical analyses included pesticide residues, nitrate, glycoalkaloid, dry matter, vitamin C and 25 different minerals and trace elements. Overall, the organically grown crops had higher dry matter content than the integrated grown. However, when examining the data for the different crops contradictory results were noted. No significant differences due to growing system were noticed for vitamin C and the other nutrients except for 4 of the trace elements. The growing system did not influence the sensory properties.     

Genomic prediction for meat and carcass traits in Nellore cattle using a Markov blanket algorithm

This study was carried out to evaluate the advantage of preselecting SNP markers using Markov blanket algorithm regarding the accuracy of genomic prediction for carcass and meat quality traits in Nellore cattle. This study considered 3675, 3680, 3660 and 524 records of rib eye area (REA), back fat thickness (BF), rump fat (RF), and Warner–Bratzler shear force (WBSF), respectively, from the Nellore Brazil Breeding Program. The animals have been genotyped using low-density SNP panel (30 k), and subsequently imputed for arrays with 777 k SNPs. Four Bayesian specifications of genomic regression models, namely Bayes A, Bayes B, Bayes Cπ and Bayesian Ridge Regression methods were compared in terms of prediction accuracy using a five folds cross-validation. Prediction accuracy for REA, BF and RF was all similar using the Bayesian Alphabet models, ranging from 0.75 to 0.95. For WBSF, the predictive ability was higher using Bayes B (0.47) than other methods (0.39 to 0.42). Although the prediction accuracies using Markov blanket of SNP markers were lower than those using all SNPs, for WBSF the relative gain was lower than 13%. With a subset of informative SNPs markers, identified using Markov blanket, probably, is possible to capture a large proportion of the genetic variance for WBSF. The development of low-density and customized arrays using Markov blanket might be cost-effective to perform a genomic selection for this trait, increasing the number of evaluated animals, improving the management decisions based on genomic information and applying genomic selection on a large scale.     

种子含水率在线测量系统

根据种子含水率的测量要求，研制了一种可同时测量电容、质量和温度3个参量的装置和测量电路。该测量系统的机械装置由2个同心圆筒组成，内筒的旋转运动实现被测种子的动态喂料。采用抗寄生电容效应的开关电容电路测量上、下极板之间的电容；下极板同时也是称量平台；温度传感器测量种子的温度。3个测量值经A／D转换电路以数字量输出。分别用3个电路单独测量已知的电容、质量和温度，以及不同温度和相对湿度条件下对电容测量值的影响，并据此分析了各测量单元的精度、可靠性和可行性。     

A model of decision-making and information flows for information-intensive agriculture

This paper describes the development of a systems based model to characterise farmers’ decision-making process in information-intensive practices, and its evaluation in the context of Precision Agriculture (PA). A participative methodology was developed in which farm managers decomposed their process of decision-making into brief decision statements along with associated information requirements. The methodology was first developed on a university research farm in Denmark and further revised during testing on a number of research and commercial farms in Indiana, USA. Twenty-one decision-analysis factors were identified to characterise a farm manager’s decision-making process. Then, a general data flow diagram (DFD) was constructed that describes the information flows “from data to decision”. Illustrative examples of the model in the form of DFDs are presented for a strategic, a tactical and an operational decision. The model was validated for a range of decisions related to operations by three university farm managers and by five commercial farmers practicing PA for cereal, corn and soybean production in Denmark and in Indiana, USA.     

基于PDM犁的智能CAD设计系统

讨论基于产品数据管理(PDM)犁的智能CAD设计系统基本框架及其3个组成部分：设计专家系统、产品数据管理和犁的计算机辅助设计。研究了各部分的功能和技术实现，设计专家系统用于犁的参数化设计过程中参数的选择和装配图装配合理性的判断，PDM主要管理犁的辅助设计相关的数据和文件以及专家系统知识。在此基础上，介绍了集成专家系统和产品数据管理犁的计算机辅助设计软件开发。     

Suitability of Multi-Agent Simulations to study irrigated system viability: application to case studies in the Senegal River Valley

It is assumed that Agent-Based Modeling is a useful technique for water management issues. In particular, it may provide a suitable framework for representing irrigated systems. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate its potential for a specific use: research on irrigated systems’ viability in the Senegal River Valley. The main assumption to be verified is that Multi-Agent Systems constitute a suitable architecture to study theoretically irrigated systems’ viability using simulations. By using Multi-Agent Systems, virtual irrigated systems can be designed that might then be used as virtual laboratories. These virtual labs constitute an alternative when real labs cannot exist for some reason.

In this paper we report on experiments we have conducted using such virtual labs for exploring an Agent-Based Model through the simulation of scenarios. A scenario is defined as a triplet: an environment, a set of individual rules, a set of collective rules. It is evaluated according to the longevity of the irrigated system. An index is defined, based on the ratio of long-enduring simulations among a set of repetitions of a given scenario. Even if simulation results display significant diversity for a given scenario due to random factors in the processes simulated, the ratio of long-enduring simulations is repeatable. This entails to explore the overall behavior of the virtual irrigated system and to build theories concerning the viability of Senegalese irrigated systems. An example is given showing the need for strong coherence for a given environment among individual rules and collective rules.