基于SPI指数的近50年重庆地区干旱时空分布特征

[目的]揭示重庆地区年和季度干旱发生的频率和强度的演变特征,为该区应对干旱灾害,制定针对性减灾措施提供科学依据和参考。[方法]基于重庆地区34个气象观测站1964—2011年逐月降水数据,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)干旱指标方法进行研究。[结果]干旱强度频率方面,重庆地区干旱发生的频率具有较明显的区域性和季节性;其中年、春、夏和冬季干旱发生频率相差不大,在25.9%~35.1%范围,秋季的发生频率范围幅度较大,介于16.7%~40.0%之间。干旱强度方面,在年和季节尺度上整体呈现一定的增加趋势,其中秋季和年度相对趋势更明显,近50a研究区年度和四季主要以轻旱和中旱为主,整体上夏季和秋季干旱强度比另外两个季度和年度表现更强一些。[结论]标准化降水指数(SPI)适用于重庆地区,可以作为气候变化的监测指标;重庆地区干旱发生的频率具有较明显的区域性和季节性。     

pH值和离子强度对大豆分离蛋白功能特性的影响

研究了pH值和离子强度对大豆分离蛋白功能特性的影响。结果表明,随着pH值的变化,大豆分离蛋白的溶解度、黏度、乳化活性和起泡性均有相同的变化趋势,即在等电点附近,大豆分离蛋白的各个功能特性值最小,而在偏离等电点两侧的pH值范围内呈上升趋势;随着离子强度的增加,大豆分离蛋白的凝胶强度呈上升趋势,而黏度、泡沫体积和乳化活性呈下降趋势。     

Standard precipitation index to track drought and assess impact of rainfall on watertables in irrigation areas

The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is employed to track drought and assess the impact of rainfall on shallow groundwater levels in three selected irrigation areas of the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. The continuous SPI method can provide better means of quantifying rainfall variability and correlating it with changes of shallow watertable levels since it is based on continuous statistical functions comparing rainfall variability over the entire rainfall record. Drought analysis in the Australian irrigation areas using SPI indicates that the recent 2000–2006 drought is not the worst drought that has occurred in the recorded history, however if the current low rainfall pattern continues, it would be one of the most prolonged drought. The shallow groundwater fluctuations in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area show a very strong correlation with winter rainfall variation. The shallow piezometric levels in the Coleambally Irrigation Area show a weaker degree of correlation with the SPI due to local and regional groundwater dynamics and changes in rice water use. The groundwater levels in the Murray Irrigation Area show least correlation with the SPI, which may be attributed to improved irrigation management practices and complex nature of the groundwater recharge and discharge processes in this area. The overall results however show that the SPI correlates well with fluctuations in shallow ground water table in irrigation areas, and can also capture major drought patterns in Australia. The correlation of SPI with groundwater levels can be adopted for environmental reporting and used as a method of relating climatic impacts on watertables. Differences in piezometric response between years with similar winter and yearly SPI values can be attributed to improvement in irrigators’ management practices.     

基于VIC模型构建的综合干旱指数在黄河流域的应用

【目的】研究黄河流域年内和年际尺度的干旱特征,为评估干旱、半干旱地区极端气候提供参考。【方法】基于VIC模型划分0.5°×0.5°经纬网,结合黄河流域多年降水资料,将子流域所有网格日径流取均值,采用GPP(Gringorten plotting position)算法构建非参数多变量综合干旱指数(Non-parametric multivariate standardized drought index,NMSDI),并在黄河流域进行了实例应用。【结果】(1)在6个月尺度上,干旱初期NMSDI指数与标准化降水指数(Standardized precipitation index,SPI)类似,末期与标准化流量指数(Standardized streamnow index,SSI)类似。(2)黄河上游及北部干旱较其他区域更为严重,旱灾风险春夏高、秋冬低。(3)黄河流域年内和年际的NMSDI指数以降低为主,但R/S分析表明,降低的趋势在未来有所减缓。(4)黄河流域年际NMSDI系列趋于稳定,仅渭河流域在1991年出现突变,可能是气候变化与人类活动耦合的结果。【结论】与传统的干旱指标相比,NMSDI综合了气象、水文干旱指标的特点且不依赖于假设的分布函数,可以有效捕获干旱状态,同时避免了不同指标之间不能直接比较的不足,在研究流域有较好的适用性。     

Detecting Agro-Droughts in Southwest of China Using MODIS Satellite Data

The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has proven to be typically employed to assess terrestrial vegetation conditions. However, one limitation of NDVI for drought monitoring is the apparent time lag between rainfall deficit and NDVI response. To better understand this relationship, time series NDVI (2000-2010) during the growing season in Sichuan Province and Chongqing City were analyzed. The vegetation condition index (VCI) was used to construct a new drought index, time-integrated vegetation condition index (TIVCI), and was then compared with meteorological drought indices-standardized precipitation index (SPI), a multiple-time scale meteorological-drought index based on precipitation, to examine the sensitivity on droughts. Our research findings indicate the followings: (1) farmland NDVI sensitivity to precipitation in study area has a time lag of 16-24 d, and it maximally responds to the temperature with a lag of about 16 d. (2) We applied the approach to Sichuan Province and Chongqing City for extreme drought monitoring in 2006 and 2003, and the results show that the monitoring results from TIVCI are closer to the published China agricultural statistical data than VCI. Compared to VCI, the best results from TIVCI3 were found with the relative errors of -4.5 and 6.36% in 2006 for drought affected area and drought disaster area respectively, and 5.11 and -5.95% in 2003. (3) Compared to VCI, TIVCI has better correlation with the SPI, which indicates the lag and cumulative effects of precipitation on vegetation. Our finding proved that TIVCI is an effective indicator of drought detection when the time lag effects between NDVI and climate factors are taken into consideration.     

基于云计算和WebGIS的农业信息服务系统构建

介绍了云计算的概念、特点及其SPI模型,将其应用到农业信息服务领域,以Windows Azure平台、WebGIS技术和Visul Studio 2010相结合完成了农业信息网站的建设与开发.该平台的应用将对农业信息化建设起到一定的推动作用.     

IMERG卫星降水产品在中国的干旱监测效用评估

GPM(Global Precipitation Measurement)时代,高时空分辨率的IMERG(Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM)是最主流的卫星遥感反演降水产品.该研究以地面网格CPAP(China Gauge-based Monthly Precip...     

多尺度标准化降水指数的ARIMA模型干旱预测研究

采用关中地区39 a的月平均降水量数据,计算了该地区不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI)值,运用ARIMA模型对SPI序列进行分析建模,并进行12步预测。结果表明,ARIMA模型对所有时间尺度的SPI 3、6、9序列可进行精度在10%以下的1步预测,对SPI 12、24序列可进行平均精度在10%以下的9步预测,说明ARI-MA模型较适合SPI 3、6、9序列的短期预测,适合SPI 12、24序列的长期预测。     

黄土高原植被变化对气象干旱多尺度响应特征与机制

基于黄土高原1983—2015年间的植被状况指数(VCI)与1~48个月尺度的标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)和标准化降水指数(SPI),利用Pearson相关系数法、线性回归法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法等方法研究了黄土高原地区植被对气象干旱的多时间尺度时空响应特征。结果表明:(1)1983—2015年,黄土高原植被状况整体趋于改善,但黄土高原整体干湿状况变化趋势不大。(2)黄土高原绝大部分区域植被变化与气象干旱指数呈现显著正相关关系,表明植被活动受到水分的限制较强。但是,过去几十年,黄土高原地区植被受到水分限制的影响程度有逐渐减轻的趋势。(3)黄土高原植被对短时间尺度的水分盈亏变化相对敏感,尤其是耕地和草地对1~4个月的SPEI更为敏感,而林地对SPEI的响应时间尺度较为分散。黄土高原VCI与SPEI、SPI的最大相关系数均主要出现在生长季(4—10月),表明水分条件在生长季对植被活动的影响较为显著。