Assessing the potential for urban trees to facilitate forest tree migration in the eastern United States

Latitudinal shifts in tree species distributions are a potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. It has been hypothesized that some tree species may become extirpated as climate change effects may exceed their migration ability. The goal of this study was to compare tree species compositions in northern urban areas to tree compositions in forestland areas in the eastern U.S. as an indicator of the potential for urban trees to facilitate future forest tree species migration. Results indicated that a number of tree species native to eastern U.S. forests of southern latitudes are currently present in northern urban forests. The biomass density (Mg/ha) of urban tree species is typically less than half of forestland densities with the majority of urban tree species found in nearby (<100 km) forestland. Urban tree propagation is often facilitated by humans, whereas the necessary pollinators and agents of tree seed dispersal in forestlands may be lacking regardless of climate change. It is suggested that urban areas may serve divergent, dual roles as both a native tree seed source and refuge for a limited number of forestland tree species, but also a facilitator of non-native tree invasion.     

Drivers of bryophyte diversity allow implications for forest management with a focus on climate change

Understanding the major drivers of diversity in forests is crucial for ecologists, conservationists, and particularly forest managers. In most forested habitats, bryophytes are diverse and important primary producers. Here we report the first study of the relative importance of regional macroclimate as compared to local variables on abundance, species richness, and community composition of bryophytes growing in soil and in dead wood in a mountain temperate forest. Using PCA axes, we built predictor sets for macroclimate, microclimate, soil attributes, and dead wood availability. The explanatory power of each set was tested using variance partitioning. Abundance and species richness of soil bryophytes was best explained by microclimate, whereas the community composition did not distinctively differ between the environmental sets. In contrast, dead wood bryophyte abundance, species richness, and community composition was clearly driven by macroclimate. Among the single axes, the component represented best by soil moisture was the main driver for soil bryophyte abundance. In contrast, dead wood bryophyte abundance was mostly affected by components correlated with minimum global radiation and minimum temperatures as well as by the component represented by dead wood. The component represented by canopy openness was superior in explaining the community composition of both soil and dead wood bryophytes. We conclude that (1) dead wood amounts should be increased in closed stands to act as a buffer during climate changes, and (2) open canopy, which provides important habitats for soil-inhabiting bryophytes, should be provided by management with slow reforestation after natural or logging openings.     

荷花在我国园林中应用历史溯源

荷花主要分布于中国、印度、俄罗斯等国家,而我国的荷花分布南抵海南三亚市(北纬18.2°),北达黑龙江抚远县(北纬48.2°)。荷花在殷商时期园林中的应用,历代史书尚无记载。文章根据相关史料进行分析和比较研究,对荷花的应用作了大胆的推测,认为荷花在殷商时期已出现应用的萌芽,这与最早见于文字记载‘囿’和‘台’的时间相吻合。故对了解我国荷花的栽培历史,具有深远的意义。     

Forest vegetation responses to climate and environmental change: A case study from Changbai Mountain, NE China

The distribution of plant species has always been altered by changing climatic conditions. Nonetheless, the potential for species’ range shift responses has recently become severely limited, as exceptionally fast temperature changes coincide with a high degree of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. This study provides rare insights into the effects current temperature increases have on pristine temperate forest ecosystems, using the forests of Changbai Mountain, NE China, as a case study. On the northern slopes of the mountain at elevations between 750 and 2100 m, the composition of trees, shrubs and herbaceous species was recorded on 60 plots in 1963 and 2006/07. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were used to establish the response of plant diversity and plant distribution patterns to environmental conditions. Climatic factors proved important in explaining the spatio-temporal trends within the vegetation. The composition of dominant trees remained mostly unchanged over the last 43 years, reflecting a very slow response of the forest canopy to environmental change. The composition of young trees, shrubs and herb species showed varied changes in the different forest types. A homogeneous species composition in the cohort of regenerating trees indicates an increased future uniformity in the mixed broadleaved and coniferous forest. The understory vegetation of high elevation birch forests was invaded by floristic elements of the lower-elevation coniferous forests. Both these trends pose potential threats to forests plant diversity. Future research investigating climate change responses in forest canopy composition needs to be based on even longer timescales, while investigations in the near future need to pay particular attention to the changes in the distribution of rare and threatened herbaceous species.     

Assessing impact of climate change on forest cover type shifts in Western Himalayan Eco-region

Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services. Effects of climate change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including dimensions of climate (temperature, precipitation, drought, wind etc.). Available information is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the ecological, social and economic consequences. The present study assessed shifts in forest cover types of Western Himalayan Eco-region (700?4500 m). 100 randomly selected samples (75 for training and 25 for testing the model), genetic algorithm of rule set parameters and climatic envelopes were used to assess the distribution of five prominent forest cover types (Temperate evergreen, Tropical semi-evergreen, Temperate conifer, Subtropical conifer, and Tropical moist deciduous forests). Modelling was conducted for four different scenarios, current scenario, changed precipitation (8% increase), changed temperature (1.07°C increase), and both changed temperature and precipitation. On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was observed, while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer showed no shift. On increasing temperature, an upward shift in all forest types was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests without significant changes. When both temperature and precipitation were changed, the actual distribution was maintained and slight upward shift was observed in all the forest types except sub-tropical conifer. It is important to understand the likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems, so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for the biodiversity and forest dependent community. Knowledge of impact mechanisms also enables identification and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.     

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRE IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE

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我国林业CDM固C项目的前景、影响及相关对策

本文从林业的角度对《联合国关于气候变化的框架公约》，《京都议定书》的相关条款做了介绍，并对CDM（清洁发展机制)林业固C项目在我国开展的前景及影响做了分析。主要结论如下：1)CDM林业固C项目是我国林业发展的重大机遇，通过为林业争取国外资金、技术支持及促进生态效益补偿制度的建立，将有力促进我国林业展与生态建设。2)为了充分把握CDM林业固C项目的机会，需要对林业的固C总量及固C潜力，可纳入CDM的林业固C项目的类型与特征，合适的CDM固C造林技术及模式，C贮量测定的标准化以及CDM的运行机制等进行研究。3)建议通过国际合作研究培养相关人材，开展小规模的CDM固C项目试点，并通过相关部门积极申报CDM森林固C项目。     

Stochastic simulation of forest fuel sourcing models under risk

Abstract

Climate change effects such as storms and droughts are leading to increased risk of forest damage in central Europe. The aim of this paper was to evaluate forest fuel sourcing models including climate change-induced risks on forest fuel supply. Stochastic risk events, such as storms and bark beetle infestations, were modelled by means of a Monte Carlo simulation, and the economic performance was evaluated for two fuel-sourcing models supplying a single combined heat and power plant (CHP). The first sourcing model depicted a common sourcing model for Austrian CHPs, where only forest chips provided by long- and short-term suppliers were stored. The second sourcing model additionally enabled the storage of salvaged pulpwood to supply forest fuel from the plant's own inventory during shortage periods. Simulation results showed that storing salvage pulpwood as feedstock considerably reduced supply chain risks and resulted in lower procurement costs (1–3% less than normal delivered cost without storing salvaged pulpwood).     

Impact analysis of climate data aggregation at different spatial scales on simulated net primary productivity for croplands

For spatial crop and agro-systems modelling, there is often a discrepancy between the scale of measured driving data and the target resolution. Spatial data aggregation is often necessary, which can introduce additional uncertainty into the simulation results. Previous studies have shown that climate data aggregation has little effect on simulation of phenological stages, but effects on net primary production (NPP) might still be expected through changing the length of the growing season and the period of grain filling. This study investigates the impact of spatial climate data aggregation on NPP simulation results, applying eleven different models for the same study region (∼34,000 km²), situated in Western Germany. To isolate effects of climate, soil data and management were assumed to be constant over the entire study area and over the entire study period of 29 years. Two crops, winter wheat and silage maize, were tested as monocultures. Compared to the impact of climate data aggregation on yield, the effect on NPP is in a similar range, but is slightly lower, with only small impacts on averages over the entire simulation period and study region. Maximum differences between the five scales in the range of 1–100 km grid cells show changes of 0.4–7.8% and 0.0–4.8% for wheat and maize, respectively, whereas the simulated potential NPP averages of the models show a wide range (1.9–4.2 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ and 2.7–6.1 g C m⁻² d⁻¹ for wheat and maize, respectively). The impact of the spatial aggregation was also tested for shorter time periods, to see if impacts over shorter periods attenuate over longer periods. The results show larger impacts for single years (up to 9.4% for wheat and up to 13.6% for maize). An analysis of extreme weather conditions shows an aggregation effect in vulnerability up to 12.8% and 15.5% between the different resolutions for wheat and maize, respectively. Simulations of NPP averages over larger areas (e.g. regional scale) and longer time periods (several years) are relatively insensitive to climate data aggregation. However, the scale of climate data is more relevant for impacts on annual averages of NPP or if the period is strongly affected or dominated by drought stress. There should be an awareness of the greater uncertainty for the NPP values in these situations if data are not available at high resolution. On the other hand, the results suggest that there is no need to simulate at high resolution for long term regional NPP averages based on the simplified assumptions (soil and management constant in time and space) used in this study.     

Spatial and interspecific variability in phenological responses to warming temperatures

A comprehensive understanding of species phenological responses to global warming will require observations that are both long-term and spatially extensive. Here we present an analysis of the spring phenological response to climate variation of twelve taxa: six plants, three birds, a frog, and two insects. Phenology was monitored using standardized protocols at 176 meteorological stations in Japan and South Korea from 1953 to 2005, and in some cases even longer. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to examine the complex interactions of temperature, site effects, and latitude on phenology. Results show species-specific variation in the magnitude and even in the direction of their responses to increasing temperature, which also differ from site-to-site. At most sites the differences in phenology among species are forecast to become greater with warmer temperatures. Our results challenge the assertion that trends in one geographic region can be extrapolated to others, and emphasize the idiosyncratic nature of the species response to global warming. Field studies are needed to determine how these patterns of variation in species response to climate change affect species interactions and the ability to persist in a changing climate.