Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy

This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.

In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.

Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.

Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society.     

冶河流域径流减少的驱动因素分析

分析了1970—2000年滹沱河的重要支流——冶河流域径流减少的主要驱动因子气候和地表覆被的变化趋势及其对流域径流的影响。结果表明，30年来，流域降水量减少，流域内的年平均气温上升并达到显著水平。流域1995年有林地和高覆盖草地所占面积同20世纪80年代相比大幅减少，林地和草地的质量有所下降，到了2000年有所回升；流域内农田的有效灌溉面积逐年增加。同时流域的径流量发生了明显变化：年均流量自1966年以来不断减小，尤其是80年代以后下降趋势更明显。以致上游长年有水河流部分河段出现了不同程度的断流。     

二代棉铃虫发生程度与气象因素的灰色关联优势分析

采用灰色关联优势分析方法对辽宁省喀左县二代棉铃虫发生程度与气候因子间关系进行了分析,得出:6月下旬干燥度、7月上旬平均气温、6月中旬平均气温为影响发生程度的主要因子,7月中旬干燥度对二代棉铃虫发生程度的关联度最小。因此,夏季干旱少雨和气温偏高是棉铃虫大发生的重要条件。     

气候变化对安徽省淮河区域旱涝灾害的影响及适应对策

通过历史旱涝灾害面积和产量资料的统计分析安徽省淮河区域旱涝灾害和降水分布的演变规律，研究气候变化对该区旱涝灾害和粮食减产率的影响，并在分析未来气候变化对旱涝灾害影响的基础上阐述减缓旱涝灾害的适应性对策。     

Regrowth forests on abandoned agricultural land: A review of their habitat values for recovering forest fauna

Human land use has modified the structure and function of terrestrial landscapes throughout much of the world, with cropping and livestock grazing the major drivers of landscape change. In many tropical, sub-tropical, temperate and Mediterranean regions, regrowth forests regenerate naturally on abandoned agricultural land if human disturbance declines. With the exception of some tropical forest literature, the broader ecological and conservation literature has largely ignored the potential of regrowth forests to facilitate passive landscape restoration and the recovery of fauna communities in fragmented agricultural landscapes. This paper addresses this deficiency by reviewing the available global evidence of fauna recovery in regrowth forest from 68 papers, identifying the main gaps in current knowledge, and providing directions for further research. The majority of reviewed studies focus on regrowth in tropical regions, which often contain large areas of mature forest. Species’ utilisation of regrowth forest is highly variable and is particularly influenced by land-use history, an important determinant of the structural and compositional characteristics of regrowth forests. While site-scale (<1 ha) forest structure and floristic diversity were frequently studied, only 11 studies considered the spatial configuration and context of habitat patches and just two studies explicitly considered landscape structure. Based on this review, six key research questions are posed to direct future research on this important issue. We conclude that a broader perspective of the role of regrowth forest in the landscape is required if we are to realise the potential benefits of regrowth forest for passive landscape restoration and fauna conservation and recovery.     

天水节能型日光温室气候适应性及对策研究

通过试验观测得出：天水节能型日光温室作物生产季的平均气温为13．3—16．6℃，0—20cm地温为13．1—17．0℃，相对湿度为69％．89％。全年光、温条件最差的1月其温室平均气温为8．9℃(8—9时)-17．2℃(13—14时)，地温为11．2℃(9-10时)．14．5℃(17-18时)；冬至前后一整月日平均光照强度2．33万Lux。晴天条件下，温室气候基本能够满足喜温蔬菜作物对气象条件的需求。根据对不同天气类型温室气象条件分析，并结合生产季温室作物光温生产潜力的估算，基本掌握了温室生产季不利的天气和气候因素，并提出了相应的管理措施，为天水节能型日光温室发展提供科学依据。     

西藏冬小麦成穗率与气候条件的关系

在系统分析研究西藏自治区山南地区多年气候因子对冬小麦成穗率的影响规律基础上，建立了成穗率气候模型。结果表明：山南地区冬小麦三叶一分蘖期间的平均气温偏高有利于成穗率的增加；分蘖一拔节期空气干燥将减少成穗率；孕穗一抽穗期的空气湿度为49％左右、日较差小、阴雨寡照有利于成穗率的提高。     

Forest vegetation responses to climate and environmental change: A case study from Changbai Mountain, NE China

The distribution of plant species has always been altered by changing climatic conditions. Nonetheless, the potential for species’ range shift responses has recently become severely limited, as exceptionally fast temperature changes coincide with a high degree of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. This study provides rare insights into the effects current temperature increases have on pristine temperate forest ecosystems, using the forests of Changbai Mountain, NE China, as a case study. On the northern slopes of the mountain at elevations between 750 and 2100 m, the composition of trees, shrubs and herbaceous species was recorded on 60 plots in 1963 and 2006/07. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were used to establish the response of plant diversity and plant distribution patterns to environmental conditions. Climatic factors proved important in explaining the spatio-temporal trends within the vegetation. The composition of dominant trees remained mostly unchanged over the last 43 years, reflecting a very slow response of the forest canopy to environmental change. The composition of young trees, shrubs and herb species showed varied changes in the different forest types. A homogeneous species composition in the cohort of regenerating trees indicates an increased future uniformity in the mixed broadleaved and coniferous forest. The understory vegetation of high elevation birch forests was invaded by floristic elements of the lower-elevation coniferous forests. Both these trends pose potential threats to forests plant diversity. Future research investigating climate change responses in forest canopy composition needs to be based on even longer timescales, while investigations in the near future need to pay particular attention to the changes in the distribution of rare and threatened herbaceous species.     

A biologically-consistent stand growth model for loblolly pine in the Piedmont physiographic region, USA

A theory-influenced dynamical stand growth model formulation described well the behavior of thinned and unthinned loblolly pine plantations. A simplification containing few free parameters performed as well as a fully parametrized version. It seems particularly well suited to situations where available data is scarce. The stand model can be interfaced to additional climate, nutrition and carbon cycling modules for studying the effects of a changing environment.     

Ecological lessons from long-term studies in experimental forests: Ponderosa pine silviculture at Pringle Falls Experimental Forest, central Oregon

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service celebrated the 100th anniversary of its network of experimental forests in 2008. For a century, the network of experimental forests have contributed immensely—both in the US and around the world—to the practical understanding of the environment and to the formation of management approaches and policies that affect our use of forests and the natural resources they contain. Experimental forests provide places for long-term science and management studies in major vegetation types across the 789,140 km² of public land administered by the Forest Service. They also provide an incredible wealth of records and knowledge of environmental change in natural and managed forest ecosystems across the United States. Pringle Falls Experimental Forest (Pringle Falls), southwest of Bend, Oregon, is the oldest experimental forest in the Pacific Northwest and is the site of some of the earliest forest management and silviculture research in this region. Research at this site began in 1914, and it was formally established as part of the national network of experimental forests in 1931 as a center for silviculture, forest management, and insect and disease research in ponderosa pine forests east of the Oregon Cascade Range. As part of the celebration of the Centennial Anniversary of the network of experimental forests, it is timely to examine a few of the ecological lessons that have resulted from long-term studies at Pringle Falls. Two different yet interconnected themes are traced: (1) management of existing old-growth ponderosa pine; and (2) management of young or immature ponderosa pine. Examples of ecological lessons, drawn from long-term studies established or followed by James W. Barrett, Matt D. Busse, Patrick H. Cochran, Walter G. Dahms, F. Paul Keen, Ernest L. Kolbe, Edwin L. Mowat, William W. Oliver, Ram Oren, Chester T. Youngberg, and Jianwei Zhang illustrate how work at Pringle Falls has both pursued and influenced societal demands for forest management strategies, and how this trajectory has cycled back to the themes under which the experimental forest was first established. Finally, these two themes are integrated as drivers for new landscape-scale long-term research at Pringle Falls, designed to evaluate the effects of thinning and fuel reduction treatments on multiple, interacting forest stresses of fire, insects, wind, and climate change.