安徽省农业气象灾害时间分布特征与灰色关联分析

为了探寻安徽省农业气象灾害的分布特点以及各种气象灾害对粮食生产的影响,本研究基于安徽省1992—2012年有关气象灾害数据,对4种主要气象灾害(旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、霜冻灾)的分布特征进行统计分析,并采用灰色关联分析研究其对安徽省粮食单产的影响。结果表明:1992—2012年,安徽省气象灾害具有发生频率高、波动大的特点,但整体上呈下降趋势。旱灾和水灾是发生面积较大的气象灾害,且常在时间上交织、空间上并存。灰色关联分析表明,4种气象灾害对粮食产量影响顺序:风雹灾水灾旱灾霜冻灾,说明风雹灾是影响粮食产量最主要的气象灾害,其次是水灾、旱灾,霜冻灾影响较小。本研究可为安徽省防灾减灾措施的制定提供决策依据。     

Simulating farming practices within a region using a stochastic bio-decisional model: Application to irrigated maize in south-western France

Agricultural is a major contributor to environmental resource management problems. Modelling the distribution of agricultural land use to evaluate current situations or scenarios is an important issue for policy-makers and natural resource managers. A promising approach is the use of bio-decisional models based on decision rules. However, at the regional scale, the large number of farmers makes it difficult to identify decision rules, and the diversity of farmers' decisions is rarely considered. To this end, we developed SIMITKO, a spatialised and stochastic bio-decisional model, able to simulate the spatial and temporal variability in farming practices. We focused on the choice of varietal earliness and sowing practices of maize (Zea mays L.) in the Baïse sector (south-western France). Model development was based on statistical analyses of surveys of farmers’ practices to identify their current strategies, the best variables to describe the practices and the probabilities associated with the values of the variables for each strategy. We tested SIMITKO by simulating the dynamics of areas sown with maize. Comparing model predictions of practices to observed data showed generally good predictions of sowing dynamics but less satisfactory predictions of varietal earliness choices. Possible improvements are suggested.     

Soil organic carbon stock variability in the Northern Gangetic Plains of India: interaction between agro‐ecological characteristics and cropping systems

Soil organic carbon (SOC) content and its spatial distribution in the Northern Gangetic Plain (NGP) Zone of India were determined to establish the cause–effect relationship between agro‐ecological characteristics, prevailing crop management practices and SOC stock. Area Spread Index (ASI) approach was used to collect soil samples from the NGP areas supporting predominant cropping systems. Exponential ordinary kriging was found most suitable geo‐statistical model for developing SOC surface maps of the NGP. Predicted surface maps indicated that 43.7% area of NGP had 0.5–0.6% SOC, while the rest of the area was equally distributed with high (0.61–0.75%) and low (< 0.5%) SOC content levels. Averaged across cropping systems, maximum SOC content was recorded in Bhabar and Tarai Zone (BTZ), followed by Central Plain Zone (CPZ), Mid‐Western Plain Zone (MWPZ), Western Plain Zone (WPZ) and South‐Western Plain Zone (SWPZ) of the NGP. The SOC stock was above the optimum threshold (> 12.5 Mg/ha) in 97.8, 57.6 and 46.4% areas of BTZ, CPZ and MWPZ, respectively. Only 9.8 and 0.4% area of WPZ and SWPZ, respectively, had SOC stock above the threshold value. The variation in SOC stock was attributed largely to carbon addition through recycling of organic sources, cropping systems, tillage intensity, crop or residue cover and land‐use efficiency, nutrient‐use pattern, soil texture and prevailing ecosystem. Adoption of conservation agriculture, balanced use of nutrients, inclusion of legumes in cropping systems and agro‐forestry were suggested for enhancing SOC stock in the region.     

From regionally predictable to locally complex population structure in a freshwater top predator: river systems are not always the unit of connectivity in Northern Pike Esox lucius

Contemporary genetic diversity is the product of both historical and contemporary forces, such as climatic and geological processes affecting range distribution and continuously moulded by evolutionary forces selection, gene flow and genetic drift. Predatory freshwater fishes, such as Northern Pike Esox lucius, commonly exhibit small population sizes, and several local populations are considered endangered. Pike inhabit diverse habitat types, including lakes, rivers and brackish marine waters, thus spanning from small isolated patches to large open marine systems. However, pike population structure from local to regional scales is relatively poorly described, in spite of its significance to developing conservation measures. We analysed microsatellite variation in a total of 1185 North European pike from 46 samples collected across both local and regional scales, as well as over time, to address two overarching questions: Is pike population structure associated with local and/or regional connectivity patterns, and which factors likely have the main influence on the contemporary distribution of genetic diversity? To answer this, we combined estimators of population diversity and structure to assess evidence of whether populations within (i) habitats, (ii) drainage systems and (iii) geographical regions are closer related than among these ranges, and whether patterns are temporally stable. Contrasting previous predictions that genetic drift obscures signals of postglacial colonisation history, we identified clear regional differences in population genetic signatures, suggesting a major effect of drainage divides on colonisation history and connectivity. However, several populations deviated from the general pattern, showing that local processes may be complex and need to be examined case‐by‐case.     

Evidence for genetic distinction among sympatric ecotypes of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in south‐western Alaskan lakes

Resource polymorphism may play an important role in the process of speciation. The Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) exhibits great phenotypic and genetic diversity across its range, making it an ideal species for studies of resource polymorphism and divergence. Here, we investigated genetic variation at 11 microsatellite loci among 287 Arctic char from five isolated yet proximate postglacial lakes in south‐western Alaska that were previously examined for resource polymorphism. Significant differences in pairwise F_ST were detected among all lakes (range from 0.05 to 0.28, all P < 0.02). In one lake (Lower Tazimina Lake), we found evidence for two genetic groups of char and for significant differences in the distribution of microsatellite variability among at least two of the three previously described body size morphotypes (‘large’‐, ‘medium’‐, and ‘small’‐bodied char; maximum F_ST = 0.09; differences in admixture proportions). We also found a significant association between genetic admixture proportions and gill raker counts among body size morphs (r = ?0.73, P < 0.001). Our data represent the first record of genetically distinct sympatric morphs of Arctic char in Alaska and provide further evidence that differences in morphology associated with feeding (gill rakers) and growth trajectories reflect niche diversification and promote genetic divergence in Holarctic populations of Arctic char.     

Spatial Distribution of Surface Soil Acidity,Electrical Conductivity,Soil Organic Carbon Content and Exchangeable Potassium,Calcium and Magnesium in Some Cropped Acid Soils of India

Land degradation is a global problem. Best management of degraded land can be done by evaluating the spatial variability of soil properties including chemical properties of degraded land and mapping such variations. Since, a significant portion of arable land in India is chemically degraded due to soil acidity; the present study was conducted to study the spatial variability of soil acidity (pH), electrical conductivity (EC), soil organic carbon (OC) content, exchangeable potassium (K⁺), calcium (Ca²⁺) and magnesium (Mg²⁺) contents in some cropped acid soils of India. A total of four hundred (one hundred from each series) representative surface (0–0.15 m depth) soil samples were collected from arable soils representing four soil series namely Hariharapur, Debatoli, Rajpora and Neeleswaram situated in Orissa, Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh and Kerala states of India, respectively, and were analyzed. Soil acidity (pH between 3.90 and 6.45) showed a low variability, in contrast to other soil properties, which showed moderate variability. The coefficients of variation varied from 32.4 to 74.3, 31.2 to 50.9, 45.6 to 100, 71.9 to 93.0 and 59.0 to 79.8% for EC (mean between 0.05 and 0.09 dS m⁻¹), OC (mean between 0.29 to 1.86%), exchangeable K⁺ (mean between 39.1 and 77.7 mg kg⁻¹), Ca²⁺ (mean between 148 and 293 mg kg⁻¹) and Mg²⁺ (mean between 111 and 191 mg kg⁻¹), respectively. Soil pH and OC content were positively and significantly correlated with exchangeable K⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ content. Geostatistical analysis revealed that the best fit models were gaussian, exponential and spherical for different soil properties with moderate to strong spatial dependency. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

县域耕地土壤养分时空变异特征研究

土壤养分空间变异研究是精准农业实施的前提,对提高粮食作物单位面积产量和保护农业生态环境具有重要作用。为掌握陕西渭北旱塬区土壤养分时空变异规律,综合空间自相关和重心模型,分析1980—2007年、2007—2017年白水县耕地土壤有机质(SOM)、速效磷(AP)和速效钾(AK)的时空变异特征。结果表明：(1)研究区土壤SOM的平均含量分别增加了1.29、3.22 g·kg^-1,AP的平均含量分别增加了6.89、24.45 mg·kg^-1,仅有AK的平均含量呈现出先减少后增加的趋势。(2)三期耕地土壤养分的变异系数范围为30.2%～90.8%,属于中等变异。1980—2017年,耕地土壤SOM、AP和AK的全局Moran’s I指数均降低,空间结构性减弱,随机因素作用增强。(3)土壤SOM、AP和AK含量均有不同程度的增加,土壤SOM含量总体呈北低南高分布,土壤AP、AK含量分布情况较为一致,呈东高西低。(4)土壤SOM含量重心在东南方向发生偏移,AP、AK含量重心在东北方向发生偏移。土壤养分标准差椭圆空间分布格局同研究区分布方向一致,转角呈现“...     

强度参数统计特性对边坡稳定可靠性的影响

由于对边坡强度参数统计特性考虑不全面,使得边坡可靠性指标计算值偏小,对应的失效概率偏大,常常超过10%,设计中难以采纳,造成地基可靠度规范的制定和执行进展缓慢。以某高速公路全风化花岗岩土质高边坡为工程背景,在分析土质参数统计特性的基础上,采用极限平衡理论和蒙特卡罗模拟法,系统地分析了土质强度参数的均值不定性、变异性、相关性、区间特性和空间变化性等对边坡稳定可靠性的影响。结果表明：土性参数的各种统计特性对边坡稳定可靠性均具有不同程度的影响。可靠性指标计算值随抽样距离的减小而增加,随c或φ均值的增大而增加,随c和φ的变异系数的增大而减小,随c和φ相关系数绝对值的增大而增加,考虑区间性后可靠性指标计算值也明显变大。即变异性对边坡稳定不利,而相关性、区间性和空间变化性对边坡稳定有利。因此,准确而全面地考虑土质参数的统计特性,尤其是在参数变异性和相关性的基础上加以考虑土性参数空间变化性和区间性会更加符合工程实际,且计算结果趋于安全,有利于地基可靠度规范的推广运用和边坡工程的安全评价。     

Transpiration response of two bread wheat lines differing in drought resilience and their backcross parent under dry-down conditions

Improving wheat productivity in drylands largely depends on how plants manage limited water resources. Using fraction of transpirable soil water threshold (FTSW_Th) and drought stress response function, we characterized the water conservation traits of two wheat multiple synthetic derivative lines (MSD53 and MSD345) which both contain introgressed segments from Aegilops tauschii but differ in drought resilience. The lines and their backcross parent, ‘Norin 61’, were subjected to dry-down conditions. MSD53 had a higher FTSW_Th for transpiration decrease than ‘Norin 61’ and MSD345. In terms of drought stress response function, MSD53 had the lowest threshold suction, suggesting a lower drought resilience capacity compared with MSD345. However, MSD53 exhibited an effective-water-use trait whereas MSD345 exhibited a water-saving trait under dry-down conditions. These results are consistent with the reported higher yield of MSD53 in comparison with MSD345 under drought stress in Sudan, and demonstrate that high FTSW_Th supports effective water use for improved agricultural productivity in drylands. The differences in water conservation traits between the two MSD lines may be attributed to variation in introgressed segments, which can be further explored for drought resilience breeding.