基于PCA-ARIMA模型的高血压发病率预测

目的高血压发病率是政府和相关医学工作者预防和监测高血压的重要依据之一。方法利用主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)对因子进行线性筛选,获得保留因子后利用ARIMA进行建模预测,即为PCA-ARIMA多维时间序列组合预测模型。结果高血压发病率的拟合与独立预测结果表明,PCA-ARIMA优于PCA-MLR、ARIMA等参比模型。结论本文提出的基于主成分分析和ARIMA模型(PCA-ARIMA模型)的建模有助于提高模型的预测精度。     

From shallow to deep waters: habitats used by larval lampreys (genus Petromyzon and Lampetra) over a western European basin

Abstract –  Habitat requirements of lamprey ammocoetes (Petromyzon marinus and Lampetra genus) were investigated, for the first time, from shallow to deep waters, at different spatial scales across the Gironde‐Dordogne continuum, thanks to a water suction dredge. Fish‐habitat relationships were assessed through two complementary statistical analyses: habitat‐use curves and habitat suitability models using the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) technique. Analyses were performed on a small‐size data set that was characterised by the low prevalence of lamprey. The sea lamprey larvae occurred in deeper areas than their Lampetra genus counterparts. ‘Pools’ of 2 m’ depth and more were optimal habitats for the former species. Among the environmental variables retained to model lamprey occurrences, the mesohabitat (a categorical variable) was demonstrated to be highly influential, in terms of fine grain‐size substratum and vegetation cover. These preliminary results suggest that monitoring using the water suction dredge method may contribute to sea lamprey conservation.     

某引水隧洞围岩变形探讨

某引水隧洞主要采用双护盾式TBM施工。在穿越高埋深的区域性断裂带时,采用绕行导坑人工钻爆法施工。本文对采用绕行导坑的围岩变形情况进行分析,指出在隧洞开挖过程中围岩变形的时间效应,为修改设计与指导施工提供理论依据。     

Spatial optimization by simulated annealing and linear programming

Forest management planning comprises selection among treatment alternatives in management units. A traditional linear programming (LP) approach may effectively account for a profit maximization objective combined with sustainability constraints, e.g. on the temporal distribution of harvest volume flows, cash‐flow, and net present value development, but it fails to account for spatial constraints, especially those associated with final felling. By applying a simulated annealing adjacency model based on net present value maximization and combined with an LP consequence computation model, it is possible to delineate optimal strategies of final felling scheduling. Evaluation is made of the trade‐off between (1) the incremental cost (determined by use of the LP model) of an optimal adjacency model solution, and (2) the potential damage cost resulting from adjacency characteristics such as windthrow and bark injuries. The decision support system may contribute significantly to reduce damage costs and may improve the reliability of forest management planning.     

基于两层次线性混合效应模型的杉木林单木胸径生长量模型

基于两层次线性混合效应模型方法,建立江西省杉木人工林单木胸径生长量模型.研究所用数据来自于长期观测的固定样地数据,数据库包括82个区域、365个样地、5416株树木共计16248条记录.为了解决不同区域及不同样地之间的差异,本文构建的混合模型分别考虑样地层次、区域层次及两层次的随机参数效应.针对数据存在的重复测量及嵌套结构特性,在模拟时选择合适的异方差和自相关模型矩阵来解决此类问题.最后利用独立的抽样验证数据对模拟结果进行验证.结果表明:林分断面积、对象木胸径、林分内大于对象木的断面积之和与对象木胸径的比值以及海拔对单木胸径生长量有显著影响.与林业中常用的传统最小二乘方法相比,采用混合效应模型方法后模型的模拟精度和验证精度均有提高.选择适合的异方差和自相关函数后,模型比只考虑参数的随机效应有更好的适应性,并体现出了混合效应模型的灵活性和准确性.     

黑龙江垦区2006年～2008年水稻区生试品种(系)产量构成要素分析

以黑龙江垦区2006年～2008年区域生产试验的64个水稻品种(系)为材料,分析了2个熟期3a试验的平均产量与产量构成因素的关系。结果表明:在高产育种中,不同熟期应有不同的选择标准。中熟组应选分蘖中等、大穗的品种,早熟组应选择结实率高、穗数型品种。2个熟期高产育种的共同点是都应选择结实率较高的水稻品种。     

Corn (Zea mays L.) Grain and Stover Yield as Affected by Soil Residual Mineral Nitrogen

Evaluation of nitrogen (N) dynamic in soil using regression equations is important for proper determination of N fertilization. A 3-year field experiment was conducted to (1) develop the best-fitted regression model relating corn grain and stover yield to soil residual ammonium (NH₄)-N and nitrate (NO₃)-N for corn yield prediction and (2) evaluate how such a model can be beneficial to the health of ecosystem by predicting the appropriate rates of N fertilization for corn production. Soil NH₄-N and NO₃-N were determined at corn harvest at the depths of 0–30 and 30–60 cm. Nitrogen fertilizer rates and soil mineral N accounted for a maximum of 93% variation in corn grain yield. Soil mineral N enhanced corn yield more than N fertilizer. Totals of 63.1 and 14.1 kg/ha of soil residual NO₃-N and NH₄-N were found in the 0- to 60-cm depth, indicating the importance of performing soil N tests.     

Epidemiology of a Neotropical rust (Puccinia psidii): periodical analysis of the temporal progress in a perennial host (Syzygium jambos)

The epidemiology of the Neotropical rust caused by Puccinia psidii in the Indian Myrtaceae Syzygium jambos (rose apple) was investigated in central Brazil. Disease severities recorded during a 12-month period were fitted by a Fourier curve with three cyclic components or harmonics. The first, second and third harmonics accounted for 49·6, 25·9, and 1·5% of total disease measured, respectively. A highly significant linear correlation was observed between the first harmonic and the accumulated number of days having at least 6 h wetness, or a minimum of 90% relative humidity, combined with temperatures that ranged from 18 to 20°C. No significant correlation was observed between the second and third harmonics and the weather variables evaluated. Rose apple trees showed a flush of growth with new susceptible host tissue during the evaluation period, with two major outbreaks of rust of variable intensity. Host growth was fitted by a Fourier curve with two significant harmonics. The first and second harmonics accounted for 37·5 and 22·1% of total host growth measured, respectively. A highly significant negative linear correlation was observed between the first harmonic and daily maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, and duration of the light period. Inoculum availability was not a limiting factor for disease progress since urediniospores were present during most of the period studied. A major peak in numbers of rust spores followed the main peak of disease severity. Thus, rust epidemics on rose apple in central Brazil were shown to depend on the duration of leaf wetness in the dark, and also on night-time temperatures during that same wetness period. This study is the first example of a periodical analysis of an epidemic in a perennial crop.     

The 1997-1998 classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands--a survival analysis

The aim of this analysis was to characterise the temporal pattern of infection during the 1997/98 classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic in The Netherlands and hence identify and quantify risk factors for infection in different enterprise types and areas. Survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to describe the epidemic. Substantial differences in temporal survival patterns (herd breakdown rate) were found between areas where different control policies operated. Factors with a significant influence on the infection hazard of individual herds included: sow numbers as a percentage of total sows and fatteners (HR = 3.38 for mixed herds (0.1–60% sows) vs. fattening herds (0% sows) and HR = 2.74 for breeding herds (60–100% sows) vs. fattening herds), the number of ‘transport contacts per month’ (>0.3 vs. <0.3; HR = 4.11), pig density (pigs/km²) in the area (HR_{1000 pigs} 1.48) and herd size (HR_{100 pigs} = 1.01).

Pre-emptive slaughter in an area appeared to be associated with lower subsequent disease levels. Higher frequency of transport contacts for welfare slaughter during the epidemic, however, well regulated and controlled, was associated with a substantially higher risk of becoming infected. The positive association of a higher pig density with CSF indicates the potential importance of local spread as a factor in disease transmission and emphasizes that dilution of the pig population can contribute to reduction in CSF occurrence. This analysis suggests however, that if pre-emptive slaughter can promptly be applied effectively in an area after initial diagnosis, pig density is then not a significant factor. Mixed and breeding herds had a higher probability of becoming infected than fattening herds, possibly due to different types and frequencies of inter-herd contacts. These contacts continue to some extent during the epidemic, despite the standstill of animal movements.