线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

基于高光谱特征参数的冬小麦氮营养指数估算

为了实现快速高精度获取冬小麦氮营养指数的高光谱监测技术，利用美国SVC HR-1024I型野外光谱辐射仪对2017-2019年关中地区的冬小麦进行遥感监测，获取“三边”参数、任意两波段光谱指数和植被指数，通过相关性分析和逐步回归分析方法筛选冬小麦氮营养指数的敏感光谱参数，结合偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)、随机森林算法(RFR)、支持向量机回归(SVR)和梯度增强回归(GBDT)建立冬小麦氮营养指数模型，并对模型估算精度进行验证。结果表明，从拔节期到灌浆期，各时期的氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数均呈极显著相关，其中拔节期氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数相关性均高于其他时期，且基于一阶导数光谱的归一化光谱指数和比值光谱指数与氮营养指数的相关系数最大，为0.66。拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数预测模型的决定系数(r²)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.96和0.05,模型验证的r²、RMSE和相对预测偏差(RPD)分别为0.95、0.12和2.12,模型预测精度最高。因此，拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数估算模型可用于冬小麦氮营养监测...     

Enhancing pedotransfer functions with environmental data for estimating bulk density and effective cation exchange capacity in a data‐sparse situation

Soil bulk density (BD) and effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) are among the most important soil properties required for crop growth and environmental management. This study aimed to explore the combination of soil and environmental data in developing pedotransfer functions (PTFs) for BD and ECEC. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest model (RFM) were employed in developing PTFs using three different data sets: soil data (PTF‐1), environmental data (PTF‐2) and the combination of soil and environmental data (PTF‐3). In developing the PTFs, three depth increments were also considered: all depth, topsoil (<0.40 m) and subsoil (>0.40 m). Results showed that PTF‐3 (R²; 0.29–0.69) outperformed both PTF‐1 (R²; 0.11–0.18) and PTF‐2 (R²; 0.22–0.59) in BD estimation. However, for ECEC estimation, PTF‐3 (R²; 0.61–0.86) performed comparably as PTF‐1 (R²; 0.58–0.76) with both PTFs out‐performing PTF‐2 (R²; 0.30–0.71). Also, grouping of data into different soil depth increments improves the estimation of BD with PTFs (especially PTF‐2 and PTF‐3) performing better at subsoils than topsoils. Generally, the most important predictors of BD are sand, silt, elevation, rainfall, temperature for estimation at topsoil while EVI, elevation, temperature and clay are the most important BD predictors in the subsoil. Also, clay, sand, pH, rainfall and SOC are the most important predictors of ECEC in the topsoil while pH, sand, clay, temperature and rainfall are the most important predictors of ECEC in the subsoil. Findings are important for overcoming the challenges of building national soil databases for large‐scale modelling in most data‐sparse countries, especially in the sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA).     

绿道在城镇密集区的应用

在分析绿道理论作为线性廊道重组自然空间的基础上,以金堂公园东区为例,提出3种类型绿道的设计途径和方法,包括边缘区绿道、自行车骑游道及游步道,使金堂公园东区形成完善的绿道网络系统.绿道的交通组织、生态、文化、科普、健身、游憩等功能均得到相应体现.     

Influence of salinity and moisture on the threshold shear velocity of saline sand in the Qarhan Desert,Qaidam Basin of China: A wind tunnel experiment

Determination of the threshold shear velocity is essential for predicting sand transport, dust release and desertification. In this study, a wind tunnel experiment was conducted to evaluate the influence of salinity and moisture on the threshold shear velocity of saline sand. Saline sand samples (mean particle size of 164.50-186.08 μm and the total silt, clay and salt content of 0.80%-8.25%) were collected from three saline sand dunes (one barchan dune and two linear dunes) in the Qarhan Desert, Qaidam Basin of China. Original saline sand samples were placed in two experimental trays for wet and dry processing to simulate deliquescence and desiccation, respectively. Surface moisture content ranging from 0.30% to 1.90% was generated by the steam method so that the saline sand can absorb water in a saturated water vapor environment. The motion of sand particles was determined by the observers with a solid laser. The laser sheet (0.80 cm thick), which was emitted by the solid laser, horizontally covered the sand surface and was bound to the sand. Results show that the cohesion of saline sand results from a combination of salt and water. The threshold shear velocity increases exponentially with the increase in crust thickness for the linear sand dunes. There is a positive linear correlation between the original moisture content and relative threshold shear velocity. The threshold shear velocity of dewatered sand is greater than that of wet sand with the same original moisture content. Our results will provide valuable information about the sand transport of highly saline soil in the desert.     

Reducing crude protein variability and maximizing savings when formulating corn-soybean meal-based feeds

Crude protein in corn and soybean meal have been documented to vary, and such inherent variability can result in under- or over-feeding of CP when feeds are formulated, leading to reduced bird growth, added input costs, and increased environmental pollution. The purpose of this study was to compare 2 grain-handling techniques and 2 feed formulation methods (linear vs. stochastic programming) to reduce CP variability in finished feeds and determine resulting costs or savings. The 2 grain-handling techniques were placing all the random batches of each delivered ingredient in to (1) a single bin (1-bin method) or (2) segregating above- and below-average samples into 2 bins (2-bin method). A fast way of estimating the composition of the ingredients is now available (near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy). Microsoft Excel workbooks were constructed to solve broiler starter feed formulation problems. Formulating feeds by linear and stochastic models based on the 2-bin method reduced CP variability by at least 50% compared with the 1-bin method. Formula cost was reduced by ˜20 cents per ton (averages of August 2012 United States ingredient prices) when the 2-bin method was used with the linear model. Formulating feed with a margin of safety increased formula cost by $3.40 per ton. Stochastic feed formulation increased formula cost to meet the specified CP level in feed at any probability of success, and formula cost was reduced substantially with the 2-bin method (up to $6.47 per ton). The magnitude of savings and reduced feed variability suggested that, regardless of the costs associated with building extra bins, the 2-bin method can be economically efficient in the long run. Therefore, it could be possible to split the batches of feed ingredients at a feed mill into above- or below-average bins before feed formulation to reduce CP variability and to maximize savings.     

Potato absorption and phytoavailability of Cd,Ni, Cu,Zn and Pb in sierozem soils amended with municipal sludge compost

Effects of sludge utilization on the mobility and phytoavailability of heavy metals in soil-plant systems have attracted broad attention in recent years. In this study, we analyzed the effects of municipal sludge compost(MSC) on the solubility and plant uptake of Cd, Ni, Cu, Zn and Pb in a soil-potato system to explore the mobility, potato plant uptake and enrichment of these five heavy metals in sierozem soils amended with MSC through a potato cultivation trial in Lanzhou University of China in 2014. Ridge regression analysis was conducted to investigate the phytoavailability of heavy metals in amended soils. Furthermore, CaCl_2, CH_3 COONH_4, CH_3COOH, diethylene triamine pentacetic acid(DTPA) and ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid(EDTA) were used to extract the labile fraction of heavy metals from the amended soils. The results show that the MSC could not only improve the fertility but also increase the dissolved organic carbon(DOC) content of sierozem soils. The total concentrations and labile fraction proportions of heavy metals increase with increasing MSC percentage in sierozem soils. In amended soils, Cd has the highest solubility and mobility while Ni has the lowest solubility and mobility among the five heavy metals. The MSC increases the concentrations of heavy metals in the root, stem, peel and tuber of the potato plant, with the concentrations being much higher in the stem and root than in the peel and tuber. Among the five heavy metals, the bioconcentration factor value of Cd is the highest, while that of Ni is the lowest. The complexing agent(DTPA and EDTA) extractable fractions of heavy metals are the highest in terms of phytoavailability. Soil properties(including organic matter, p H and DOC) have important impacts on the phytoavailability of heavy metals. Our results suggest that in soil-potato systems, although the MSC may improve soil fertility, it can also increase the risk of soils exposed to heavy metals.     

大白菜花青素含量及色差指标相关性研究

为了探寻大白菜花青素含量快速测定的方法,本文利用pH差计法和色差仪分别测定了‘城阳青’(普通大白菜)、‘秋宝黄’(黄心白菜)和‘彩凤’3个不同叶色大白菜品种花青素含量以及色差指标,并对6个色泽参数与花青素含量进行了相关和回归分析。结果表明:6个色泽参数均能反映白菜叶片间叶色的细微变化,‘城阳青’和‘秋宝黄’不含花青素,紫色白菜‘彩凤’的花青素主要分布于由外向内的第1～4层叶片。色泽参数L,b,h和C分别与花青素含量呈极显著或显著负相关关系(相关系数分别为-0.85**,-0.58**,-0.49*,-0.58**)。以色泽参数值L、a、h与花青素含量建立了多元回归方程:y=90.24-1.07x1+5.65x2-142.71x3(x1为L值,x2为a值,x3为h值,y为花青素含量),该回归方程相关系数为0.9629。通过色差计依据建立的回归方程可快速测定紫色大白菜花青素的含量。     

Cause and Consequence in Maize Planting Dates in Germany

An important part of agricultural adaptation is the timing of crop sowing dates, affecting yields and the level of risk incurred during a particular season. Cold stress is especially relevant in maize, Zea mays L., so that the timing of planting in the spring is a tactical response to short‐term weather, but is also subject to strategic planning with regard to longer‐term climate. Both factors compare the potential implications of cold stress to the additional yield obtainable through earlier planting. New cultivars suited to growing conditions in Europe and generally increasing spring temperatures have enabled earlier planting, but it is still dependent on short‐term weather during the planting period. In the context of field‐level decision‐making, a panel regression is used to estimate the relationship between weekly local temperature and precipitation and planting dates at specific sites throughout Germany. Next, localised weather data and planting behaviour are linked to yields at the district (Landkreis) level to show the effects of planting date on yield. Based on these relationships optimal planting dates are explored with some associated costs and benefits. Results show a trend towards earlier planting that follows observed increasing spring temperatures and the availability of more cold‐tolerant cultivars but this advance is buffered by the increasing severity of minimum temperatures during a critical period. Earlier planting potentially increases yield but this is offset by additional management costs and risk. A robust and simple depiction of farmer behaviour in climatic, technological and economic context can help to understand trends in crop management and productivity that effect agricultural landscapes.     

不同燕麦基因型源库关系对穗粒数形成过程的影响

为了解燕麦穗粒数形成过程与源、库特征之间的关系，连续两年以10个不同来源、熟期、穗型、株型、小穗数的燕麦品种为试验材料，测定三叶期至拔节期的幼穗分化阶段及抽穗期源库特征，采用方差分析、聚类分析、逐步回归分析等方法，分析不同燕麦基因型源库特征及对穗粒数形成过程的影响。结果表明，燕麦穗粒数形成过程存在基因型差异，幼穗分化较好品种的穗粒数较全部品种平均值高11.22%~65.43%；幼穗分化较好品种的光合势、干物质量、粒数叶比、收获指数显著高于幼穗分化较差品种，其中粒数叶比和收获指数是影响穗粒数形成的主要因素，粒数叶比和收获指数较全部品种平均值分别高0.99%~68.74%和0.85%~13.80%。综上所述，源库协调是燕麦幼穗分化良好的生理基础，可通过提高光合势和干物质量达到增源的目的，进而提高穗粒数。