黄土丘陵沟壑区小流域水沙侵蚀过程的情景模拟分析

在黄土丘陵沟壑区小流域侵蚀水沙耦合数学模型基础上,以黄河中游典型流域岔巴沟流域为研究对象,根据工程水文学设计暴雨的方法生成各种假设暴雨过程,在固定下垫面不变的条件下,进行模拟计算并分析流域100年一遇、50年一遇和10年一遇设计暴雨的产流产沙效应。在几种不同的假设植被覆盖度下,分别模拟计算同一场典型暴雨在不同植被覆盖条件下的水沙侵蚀过程。模拟结果表明：1）根据岔巴沟流域100年一遇（P=0．01）、50年一遇（P=0．02）和10年一遇（P=0．1）设计暴雨3种情景下的水沙计算特征可知,100年一遇降雨（P=0．01）对应的洪峰流量和沙峰分别为805m^3／s和77．5万kg／s,50年一遇降雨（P=0．02）对应的洪峰流量和沙峰分别为595m^3／s和50．2万kg／s,10年一遇降雨（P=0．1）对应的洪峰流量和沙峰分别为108m^3／s和12．1万kg／s,根据以上计算结果可大致推断1970-2000年的绝大多数侵蚀观测场次的水沙重现期在10年一遇和50年一遇之间;2）该流域植被覆盖度的减水减沙效应显著,增加25％植被覆盖将减少水量73％和沙量84％,而减少25％的植被覆盖将增加29．9％的径流和18．6％的泥沙。不同降雨和植被覆盖条件下的水沙侵蚀过程情景模拟分析结果可为黄土高原丘陵沟壑区流域水土保持工程规划与设计提供依据。     

Estimating forest data for analyses of forest production and utilization possibilities at local level by means of multi-source National Forest Inventory

The sample plot data of National Forest Inventories (NFI) are widely used in the analysis of forest production and utilization possibilities to support national and regional forest policy. However, there is an increasing interest for similar impact and scenario analyses for strategic planning at the local level. As the fairly sparse network of field plots only provides calculations for large areas, satellite image data have been applied to produce forest information for smaller areas. The aim of this study was to test the feasibility of generating forest data for a Finnish forest analysis tool, the MELA system, by means of the Landsat satellite imagery and the NFI sample plot data. The study was part of the preparation of a local forestry programme, where a strategic scenario analysis for the forest area of two villages (ca 8000 ha) was carried out. Management units that approximate forest stands were delineated by image segmentation. Stand volume and other parameters for each forest segment were estimated from weighted means of the NFI sample plots, where the individual sample plot weights were estimated by the k nearest neighbour (kNN) method. Two different spectral features were tested: single pixel values and average pixel values within a segment. The estimated forest data were compared with the forest data based on independent stand-level field assessments in two subareas, a national park and an area of forest managed for timber production.In the national park, the estimated mean volume of the growing stock from both spectral feature sets (about 160 m³ ha⁻¹) was clearly lower than that obtained from stand-level field assessment (186 m³ ha⁻¹). Using average pixel values within a segment resulted in a higher proportion of pine and a lower proportion of spruce volume than using single pixel values. It also resulted in an estimated felling potential nearly 10% higher over the first 10-year period in the scenario analysis of the area dedicated to timber production. However, the maximum long-term sustainable removal was at the same level (about 30,000 m³ year⁻¹) for both feature sets over the simulated 30-year period. The resulting annual felling area in the first 10-year period was 12% lower when the segment averages were applied, but the difference subsequently levelled off. The kNN approach in estimating initial forest data for scenario analyses at the local level was found promising.     

The Core in Performance -Based Building Fire Protection Study and Its Development

The core of performance-based building fire protection design consists of the establishment of fire scenario,the enactment of fire and the simulation of fire and smoke-flow development.These are most important for performance-based building fire protection design.An unreasonable enactment or pre-digestion could result in a biggish error between the simulation outcome and the actual condition.In this paper,several emphases and some issues worth much attention are introduced and analyzed.In addition,a few important issues in simulating the fire and smoke-flow development related to Field Model are analyzed in detail.     

四川盆地紫色丘陵区小流域水土流失建模与控制方法分析

 该研究是在欧盟项目EroChiNut框架内实施的,其目的是利用不同土地利用形式、侵蚀敏感性矩阵以及土地管理和坡度研究土地管理模式对水土流失的影响。首先对不同土地管理模式进行分析以了解其对土壤流失的影响,其结果用来优化未来的土地利用方式。另外采用LISEM研究耕作方向对水土流失的影响。该研究运用23种作物和10个坡度建立侵蚀敏感性矩阵,它描述的是不同土地利用和坡度的平均土壤侵蚀强度。建立的矩阵可用于优化土地利用方式和扩大其使用范围。     

Water, nitrogen and yield losses for a nonhomogeneous furrow set

Water distribution can be nonuniform along the furrow length under surface irrigation. This “down field” nonuniformity is combined with “inter-row” non-uniformity which is a consequence of differences in infiltration characteristics across the plot. Global nonuniformity of application depth causes variation of yield, drainage and nitrogen leaching. In addition to that, due to year-to-year variability of climate, irrigation depths range significantly (from 0 to 360 mm/season). The objective of this paper is to study the impact of the nonuniformity of irrigation-water distribution within a furrow plot on yield, water and nitrogen losses when climate variation is taken into account. Six maize vegetation seasons on a Chromic Luvisol soil in the Sofia region with varying irrigation requirements are considered. Irrigation water is distributed in relative terms over the plot at different levels of nonuniformity (coefficient of variation C_v ranging from 13 to 66%) by the FURMOD model. Water and nitrogen cycle and crop growth are simulated then compared at 30 representative points in the set with various “climate-irrigation nonuniformity” combinations by the CERES-maize model. It was established that non-uniformity of irrigation is not important in wet vegetation periods. The drier the irrigation season, the higher the yield loss and risk to environment due to nonuniformity of irrigation water distribution. In moderate and dry irrigation seasons it causes yield losses of 2–14%, significant variation (30% < C_v < 200%) of drainage, nitrogen leaching and residual soil nitrate over the furrow set. Surface irrigation performances can be improved by reducing lateral nonuniformity of stream advance.     

未来气候变暖情景下北部冬麦区冬小麦生育期演变趋势预测分析

为了预测未来气候变暖条件下北部冬麦区冬小麦生育期变化趋势,基于农业气象观测站数据和区域气候模拟系统PRECIS产生的RCP4.5气候情景数据,采用活动积温法、累计热生长单位法和生长速率估测法分别对我国北部冬麦区三个代表站点(霸州、介休和西峰镇)冬小麦拔节、抽穗和成熟期进行拟合分析,选用拟合精度较高的模型模拟冬小麦生育期,分析未来研究区冬小麦各生育时期和生育阶段的演变特征。结果表明:(1)生长速率估测法对冬小麦拔节和抽穗期的模拟结果较好,活动积温法对成熟期的模拟较精确。(2)冬前生育时期推迟,冬后则均呈提前趋势。2031-2090年,播种、越冬开始、返青、拔节、抽穗和成熟期的变化趋势分别为1.8、1.7、-2.4、-1.2、-1.0、-1.2 d·10a~(-1),均达到极显著水平(P0.01)。但2061-2090年生育时期的变化较2031-2060年减缓,且未来冬前生育时期较基准期(1976-2005年)的变化幅度比冬后大。除了越冬开始,麦区西部的西峰镇冬小麦各生育时期变化趋势的绝对值均最大,东部的霸州均最小。(3)越冬期和播种-成熟阶段缩短,返青-拔节阶段延长,其他阶段变化均不显著。播种-成熟阶段天数的变化主要是由于越冬期的缩短。     

基于CLUE-S模型的矿业城市土地利用变化情景模拟

为了对矿业城市的土地利用情景进行预测,该文以典型矿业城市武安市为例,将 GIS 技术和 CLUE-S （conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent）模型应用到武安市土地利用变化情景模拟研究中,通过土地利用结构变化、矿业城市土地利用空间分布和驱动因子的定量关系对武安市土地利用变化进行相应约束,设计了趋势发展情景、耕地保护情景、生态安全情景3种模式,生成2020年不同情景方案下土地利用预测图,并对预测结果进行比较分析。研究结果表明：在趋势发展情景下,林地、建筑用地呈现上升趋势,体现了经济发展和环境保护双管齐下的成效,这也与实际情况相吻合;耕地保护情景下,耕地分布制约了建设用地的适度扩张;生态安全情景下,受生态环境政策影响,林地增长趋势明显,工矿用地急剧减少。综合考虑到武安市社会、经济、生态以及耕地保护等多方面的协调发展,研究认为趋势发展情景更为合理,其他2种情景可为趋势发展情景进行适度的修正和补充。该研究为区域土地资源的优化配置提供决策依据,同时研究结果也进一步验证了CLUE-S模型能够较好地模拟预测不同约束条件下矿业城市土地利用空间变化。     

耦合GMOP与PLUS模型的干旱区土地利用格局模拟

为模拟昌吉回族自治州自然发展情景下未来土地利用格局变化趋势,构建区域内经济效益和生态环境效益协同优化的土地利用空间分布格局,运用PLUS模型和GMOP模型,基于2010、2020年土地利用现状数据,借助土地利用动态度和土地利用转移矩阵对研究区土地利用趋势进行分析和情景模拟。结果表明,2010—2020年昌吉州地类变化主要是由草地向其他土地利用类型转入,其中草地退化为未利用地的占比最高,为58.76%。基于PLUS的自然发展情景模拟,2030年建设用地扩张,南部山区草地退化,土地经济效益相比2020年增加91.43%,而生态价值却减少了1.40%;基于GMOP-PLUS耦合模型的多目标优化情景模拟,2030年草地退化和建设用地扩张趋势得到控制,未利用地得到较大程度的开发利用,实现了土地经济效益（81.90%）和生态价值（5.61%）双提升。研究表明,GMOP-PLUS模型既实现了研究区土地利用类型在结构上的优化,又能较好地模拟各地类空间分布格局,可为昌吉回族自治州未来土地利用规划编制和土地可持续利用情景预测提供理论依据。     

基于PLUS和InVEST模型的邯郸市碳储量空间分布特征研究

[目的] 分析河北省邯郸市近20 a土地利用格局及碳储量分布,并探讨生态保护政策下未来10 a的土地利用变化趋势,为增加城市碳汇和实现城市可持续发展提供参考依据。[方法] 使用PLUS模型,选取自然、社会驱动因素及生态规划限制因子,分析邯郸市在2000—2020年及自然发展情景和生态保护情景下2030年的土地利用变化规律,并结合InVEST模型,评估邯郸市2000—2030年3期碳储量。[结果] ①邯郸土地利用类型的分布呈现“西部林地,东中部耕地”的总体空间分布特征,耕地和人造地表之间的土地利用转移占总土地利用变化的96.58%; ②邯郸市碳密度空间分布呈现西部高东部低的特点,碳储量总体呈下降趋势,碳损失在2010年突增,耕地的过度侵占是导致邯郸市碳损失的最主要原因; ③与自然发展情景相比,生态保护情景下土地利用变化趋于克制,虽然生态用地的提升潜力一般,但由于人类活动受到限制,避免了生态资源的消耗; ④2020—2030年自然发展情景和生态保护情景下邯郸市碳储量变化分别为减少4.23×10⁶ t和增加2.16×10⁴ t。各区县碳损失风险显著降低,不同区县碳汇潜力差异明显。[结论] 人造地表侵占耕地是导致碳损失的主要原因。生态保护政策干预下,各区县碳损失风险显著降低,不同区县也存在明显差异,碳损失更易发生于东中部平原地区,西南部的太行山东麓县区则具有较强的碳汇潜力,需针对差异化表现灵活布局。