基于证据理论和可变模糊集的成都市洪灾风险评估

洪灾系统的高维性和不确定性,给灾害风险评估带来较多困难,为了提高评估的准确性和合理性,实现科学灾害管理,该文将Dempster_Shafer证据理论应用到洪水灾害风险评估中,同时利用可变模糊集理论来构造证据理论基本信任分配,实现了客观合理的证据建模,最后利用经典组合原理进行证据组合。以成都市区2012年风险等级的计算为例,风险为高等级时的信任区间为[0,0.52],似然区间为[0,0.54],不确定大小为0.019,根据判断规则,确定市区2012年的洪灾风险等级为高。基于此方法采用相同处理,对研究区成都市风险等级的时空分布进行了计算分析。结果表明该方法能够较好地融合洪水灾害系统各方面信息以及处理风险评估中的不确定性,实现了洪灾风险的准确评估。     

区域试验的多对照设置和品种的优度估计

以一组小麦区域试验资料为例,介绍了分析方法。1.一种基于对照和参试品种间的成对GE互作均方(MS_(GE))的分析。2.优度估计。品种×环境资料的品种总优度值定义为全部环境中平均的品种响应值与最大响应值的距离均方。这个分析可以给予育种者选择地区适应的品种作为对照以较大的灵活性。     

土地整理项目实施后影响评价

土地整理项目后评价是土地整理事业可持续发展的重要条件,在经济、社会、生态等效益分析的基础上,土地整理项目的社会影响日益受到关注。选取重庆市19个已实施的土地整理项目组成评判对象集合,在跟踪调查和资料梳理的基础上,将AHP、熵权法与模糊综合评判方法相结合对项目实施后的社会影响进行了分析。结果表明,重庆市土地整理项目的实施取得了一定社会效果,但并不显著。分析认为,调整完善目前土地整理的政策安排必要而迫切。     

Assessing eddy-covariance flux tower location bias across the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network based on remote sensing and footprint modelling

We describe an approach for evaluating the representativeness of eddy covariance flux measurements and assessing sensor location bias (SLB) based on footprint modelling and remote sensing. This approach was applied to the 12 main sites of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network (FCRN)/Canadian Carbon Program (CCP) located along an east-west continental-scale transect, covering grassland, forest, and wetland biomes. For each site, monthly and annual footprint climatologies (i.e. monthly or annual cumulative footprints) were calculated using the Simple Analytical Footprint model on Eulerian coordinates (SAFE). The resulting footprint climatologies were then overlaid on to images of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, which were used as surrogates of land surface fluxes to estimate SLB. Results indicate that (i) the sizes of annual footprint climatology increased exponentially with increasing cumulative footprint percentages and, for a given percentage of footprint climatology, the footprint areas were significantly different among the sites. Typically, the 90% annual footprint climatology areas varied from 1.1 km² to 5.0 km²; (ii) using either NDVI or EVI as the flux surrogate, the SLB was less than 5% for most sites with respect to the reference area of interest (A_r) at 90% annual footprint climatology (scenario A) and a circular area with radius of 1 km centred at the individual tower (scenario B), with several exceptions; (iii) the SLB decreased with increasing size of footprint climatology for all sites for both scenarios A and B; (iv) out of 12, eight flux towers represented most of the ecosystem surrounding the towers for an area of 0.3 km² up to 10 km² with a satisfactorily low bias of <5%, whereas four towers represented areas ranging from only 0.75 to 4 km²; and (v) the seasonal differences in monthly SLB using NDVI as a flux surrogate were about 1-4% for most sites for both scenarios A and B.     

Drought and ecosystem carbon cycling

Drought as an intermittent disturbance of the water cycle interacts with the carbon cycle differently than the ‘gradual’ climate change. During drought plants respond physiologically and structurally to prevent excessive water loss according to species-specific water use strategies. This has consequences for carbon uptake by photosynthesis and release by total ecosystem respiration. After a drought the disturbances in the reservoirs of moisture, organic matter and nutrients in the soil and carbohydrates in plants lead to longer-term effects in plant carbon cycling, and potentially mortality. Direct and carry-over effects, mortality and consequently species competition in response to drought are strongly related to the survival strategies of species. Here we review the state of the art of the understanding of the relation between soil moisture drought and the interactions with the carbon cycle of the terrestrial ecosystems. We argue that plant strategies must be given an adequate role in global vegetation models if the effects of drought on the carbon cycle are to be described in a way that justifies the interacting processes.     

基于对象的方法(优于像素法)对巴西大西洋雨林地区的一个保护区进行土地覆盖分类

Conventional image classification based on pixels hinders the possibilities to obtain information contained in images, while modern object-based classification methods increase the acquisition of information about the object and the context in which it is inserted in the image. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of different classification methods for land cover mapping in the vicinity of the Alto Ribeira Tourist State Park, a Brazilian Atlantic rainforest area. Two classification methods were tested, including i) a hybrid per-pixel classification using the image processing software ERDAS Imagine version 9.1 and ii) an object-based classification using the software eCognition version 5. In the first method, six different classes were established, while in the second method, another two classes were established in addition to the six classes in the first method. Accuracy assessment of the classification results presented showed that the object-based classification with a Kappa index value of 0.8687 outperformed the per-pixel classification with a Kappa index value of 0.2224. Application of the user’s knowledge during the object-based classification process achieved the desired quality; therefore, the use of inter-relationships between objects, superclasses, subclasses, and neighboring classes were critical to improving the efficiency of land cover classification.     

森林蓄水量价格倒算法公式推演与实证研究

[目的]对森林蓄水量价格倒算法公式进行推演与实证研究,以提升森林涵养水源价值核算的准确性和合理性。[方法]研究采用价格倒算法推演森林蓄水量价格公式。以马克思经济学的基本原理:劳动价值论和生产价格理论为基础,效仿市场活立木林价倒算法的理论和方法,推演得到森林蓄水量的价格基本公式。并以吉林省森林蓄水量价格为例,验证此推演公式的正确性、可行性和合理性。[结果]2008年和2013年吉林省森林蓄水量的价格分别为1.00和1.28元/m3。[结论]本研究较以往研究结果更加贴合实际,也使森林涵养水源价值量的评价方法更加科学化。     

中国各地区“以工补农”的经济结构特征 分析与政策建议

当前中国总体上已进入工业化中期阶段,但由于地区发展不平衡,各地区不可能都进入工业化中期阶段,统一的“以工补农”政策模式和措施在各个地区也不一定都适用。作者采用美国经济学家钱纳里与赛尔昆设计的标准模型,构建了当前全国及各地区“以工补农”的经济结构特征评价指标,对中国各地区当前的经济结构特征作了初步的分析,得出了在中国总体上跨入工业化中期阶段的事实中,有8个省与中国总体进入工业化中期阶段的判断一致;仍有17个省、区、市尚未进入“以工补农”政策转折期;有6个省市明显超越全国平均水平,已基本进入大规模反哺期的结论,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

基于村民参与式的乡村人居环境评价研究

乡村人居环境改善是城乡统筹发展的重要内容,也是美丽乡村建设的关键所在。笔者着眼于“以人为本”的视角,以重庆市铜梁区南城街道鱼溅村为例,通过村民参与式与数学模型定量的研究方法,研究乡村人居环境村民的满意度和优化方向。研究结果显示：鱼溅村人居环境的整体满意度水平一般,人居软环境系统的社会环境与经济环境满意度为一般和不满意,硬环境系统的设施环境和生态环境对整体满意度贡献率较高,结论表明鱼溅村亟需加强对人居软环境系统的优化;同时,研究还显示鱼溅村人居环境满意度的空间分布差异较大,这说明人居环境的优化需要合理布局、整体筹划。笔者最后提出了优化的对策,对山地丘陵地区的乡村人居环境建设具有普遍借鉴意义。     

基于自动气象站的乡镇级灾害风险区划初探

以宁夏海原县干旱灾害风险区划为例,利用12个区域站和1个大监站气象观测资料,综合考虑孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体和抗灾能力,采用AHP层次分析法赋权重,并将信息栅格化后使用ArcGIS进行重采样、插值及栅格计算,实现250 m格网分辨率的海原县干旱灾害风险区划。结果表明：海城、关桥和甘城3镇为干旱灾害风险高风险区,而保灌率较高的七营、郑旗、李旺和降水量大的关庄为干旱灾害的低发区。此研究为海原县城的迁移提供了佐证,也为海原县未来农业产业结构调整和远景规划提供了技术支撑。