Probabilistic risk assessment of agrochemicals in the environment

Concern for the environment has resulted in greater scrutiny of both old and new plant protection products and increased efforts have been directed to developing more rigorous but more realistic procedures for the ecotoxicological risk characterization of these agrochemicals. These techniques include probabilistic analysis of toxicity and exposure data and better understanding of the relationship between structure and function in populations of wildlife and the role of keystone species in maintaining ecosystem functioning. The ecological risk assessment method described here is centered on the use of probabilistic distribution functions that independently describe exposure concentrations and toxicological responses of organisms to the chemical of concern. The distributions are transformed to permit calculation of linear regression parameters. The regression parameters for the two distributions are then used to determine joint probabilities which interrelate the exposure and toxicology data. For ease of presentation the results are presented as an exceedence plot which depicts, based on the exposure data the percent of species likely to be affected and the percent of observations likely to cause this level of effect. In this paper, the use of the method is illustrated using data for chlorpyrifos in North American aquatic environments. These probabilistic risk assessment methods are being assessed for incorporation into assessment procedures in a number of regulatory jurisdictions.     

实施生态扶贫战略提高生态建设和扶贫工作的整体效果

扶贫开发和生态建设是我国社会发展所面临的两项重要任务。改革开放以来,我国的开放式扶贫工作和生态建设项目取得了举世瞩目的成就。但由于这两项任务实施目标不同,已有项目并没有相互兼顾,近三十年的实践表明,两类项目所瞄准的地区存在较高重叠。因此,实施生态扶贫战略,兼顾减贫和改善生态环境的双重目标,提高两者的整体效果,探索一条符合我国国情的生态建设和扶贫双赢的道路,对于建设社会主义新农村和构建和谐社会具有积极意义。文章最后提出实施生态扶贫战略的四项主要目标。     

基于极大熵原理的水资源承载力模糊评价

区域水资源承载力是近些年来水科学领域研究的热点问题,根据信息论中Jaynes最大信息熵原理,提出了一种水资源承载力模糊评价模型,并将其应用到河南省水资源承载力评价中,结果表明,河南省绝大多数地区水资源承载力较低,水资源的开发利用应以可持续发展为基础,采用节约用水,加强管理等措施。     

水电项目投资风险分析及管理方法研究

在分析了水电工程项目风险特性的基础上,论述了水电工程在施工过程中影响投资的主要风险。应用改进后的蒙特卡洛随机模拟方法进行投资风险分析,针对水电工程过程性和动态性的特点,研究了面向施工过程的动态投资风险管理方法,提出一个能够将风险管理与投资管理与控制有机结合的系统模型,并介绍了该模型的要点。然后在以上研究的基础上,分析并且提出了结合风险管理的水电工程投资动态管理与控制方法,绘制了其工作流程,并且论述其与传统的管理办法相比较具有的优势。最后进行了工程实例分析。     

永兴岛岛礁植物害虫普查及风险评估

为了有效监控永兴岛危险性害虫发生与危害,本研究对永兴岛可调查的所有陆地区域野生盐生植物、园林绿化植物、耐盐果蔬和绿色固沙植物害虫进行系统性普查及风险评估。普查结果表明:8种野生盐生植物上害虫(螨)19种,其中5种外来入侵害虫和11种世界危险性害虫普遍严重发生与危害;57种园林绿化植物上害虫(螨)33种,其中9种外来入侵害虫和17种世界危险性害虫普遍严重发生与危害;31种耐盐果蔬害虫(螨)36种,其中7种外来入侵害虫和20种世界危险性害虫普遍严重发生与危害;22种绿色固沙植物害虫(螨)15种,其中5种外来入侵害虫和5种世界危险性害虫普遍严重发生与危害。风险评估结果表明,椰心叶甲(Brontispa longissima)、木瓜秀粉蚧(Paracoccus marginatus)、扶桑绵粉蚧(Phenacoccus solenopsis)的综合风险值(R)均为2.09,在永兴岛均属于高度危险有害生物,椰子织蛾(Opisina arenosella)、波氏白背盾蚧(Diaspis boisduvalii)、新菠萝灰粉蚧(Dysmicoccu neobrevipes)、烟粉虱(Bemisia ...     

基于风险的油气管道维修及抢险流程

根据降低管道风险要从降低管道失效概率和失效后果两方面入手的原则,制定了油气管道维修和抢险流程.分析了该流程中险情原因、险情类型和险情程度、维修或抢险措施、 后期工作等主要步骤.介绍了包括外部腐蚀、内部腐蚀等在内的八类险情原因、两类险情类型--隐患和事故.指出了油气管道维修和抢险的基本概念以及在应急准备中应当注意的事项.     

凉山州土壤与苦荞镉和铜含量关系及污染评价

检测了凉山州8个主要苦荞产区的土壤和对应苦荞的镉、铜含量,结果表明:凉山州苦荞产区土壤镉、铜含量属于内梅罗污染指数评价指标的轻度污染等级;苦荞镉、铜含量属于内梅罗污染指数评价指标的清洁(安全)等级;土壤与苦荞镉、铜含量关系不存在明显的正相关。     

Modelling of common European cockle <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cerastoderma edule</Emphasis> fishing grounds aimed at sustainable management of traditional harvesting

In the Bay of Saint-Brieuc, a 3,110-ha tidal bay in NW France, English Channel, the cockle Cerastoderma edule has been collected by traditional fishing methods for many decades without any evaluation or management of this resource taking place. Since 2001, the National Natural Reserve of the bay of Saint-Brieuc has carried out an evaluation of the stock and a mapping of the cockle fishing grounds each year. Analysis of the spatial structure of the population is approached by cartography through interpolation of the data using the kriging method. The recruitment zones are geographically quite well defined and located in areas limited to the mean-tide zone. The distribution of the population was affected by passive displacement of juvenile cockles. Evaluation using the matrix of individual numbers for each age group found the inter-annual mortality rates to be about 60%. Somatic production was estimated and expressed in ash-free dry weight. The average annual production ranged from 7.4 to 14.5 g/m2. In the autumn of 2006, the minimum legal fishing size changed from 30 to 27 mm (corresponding to individuals aged about 2.5 years). The model developed shows that this change has led to a doubling of the fishable stock.     

工业区河涌污染与生态危害评价——以佛山三水大塱涡涌为例

在对工业区大塱涡涌水质及底泥重金属进行调查与分析的基础上,评价了底泥重金属潜在生态危害。结果表明,大塱涡涌水体COD、氨氮、总磷、DO与重金属Cr均超过地表水Ⅴ类水体标准,属于劣Ⅴ类水体;底泥重金属Cu、Zn与Cd平均含量超出土壤环境质量三级标准,且重金属Cu、Zn、Pb平均含量超过农用污泥污染物控制标准,该河段疏浚底泥不宜作为肥料直接施用于农田;大塱涡涌表层底泥重金属的潜在生态危害程度总体为强,几种重金属潜在生态危害平均程度从大到小为：Cd〉Cu〉Pb〉Zn〉Cr。